Article(id=1322916922379084334, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, issueId=1322916858604696290, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.14075/j.jgg.2025.12.425, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1764864000000, receivedDateStr=2025-12-05, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793337572903, onlineDateStr=2026-10-30, pubDate=1786723200000, pubDateStr=2026-08-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793337572903, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793337572902, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793337572902, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322916858604696290, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, year='2026', volume='46', issue='8', pageStart='913', pageEnd='1038', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1786723200000', pubDateStr='2026-08-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793337557698, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793337557698, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=942, endPage=948, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322916922559439407, articleId=1322916922379084334, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=EN, title=Noise Characteristics and Environmental Impact of GNSS Coordinate Time Series in the Urumqi Region, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Taking the Urumqi region characterized by complex tectonic activity and variable environment as a case study, we systematically analyze the noise characteristics and environmental loading impact of GNSS coordinate time series based on multi-year continuous GNSS observations. The results indicate that the regional noise time series are predominantly characterized by a combination model of white noise plus flicker noise or white noise plus power-law noise. The noise amplitude of vertical component is significantly higher than that of the horizontal component, and the spatial distribution exhibits notable heterogeneity. Influenced by seasonal hydrological mass migration and atmospheric loading, the annual signals in the vertical series are largely attributable to environmental loading (> 70%). Moreover, long-term variations in groundwater levels can introduce deviations comparable to tectonic trends. At URU2 station, the cumulative effect over 14.6 years without correction can reach up to ±36.5 mm. The study further reveals the heightened noise complexity and greater disturbance at urban and alluvial stations (URU2 station), highlighting the critical impact of local geological conditions and human activities on station stability.

, authors=Lixia LIU1, Guirong LI1, *, Dongya LIU1, Kui LI1, Qingyuan ZHANG1, GULIZHA·Aierken1, authorsList=Lixia LIU, Guirong LI, Dongya LIU, Kui LI, Qingyuan ZHANG, GULIZHA·Aierken, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Guirong LI, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322916923675124278, articleId=1322916922379084334, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=CN, title=乌鲁木齐地区GNSS坐标时间序列噪声特征及其环境影响, columnId=1322566785874908034, journalTitle=大地测量与地球动力学, columnName=特色栏目: 地震大地测量学, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

以构造活动复杂、环境多变的乌鲁木齐地区为对象,基于多年连续GNSS观测数据,系统分析GNSS坐标时间序列的噪声特性及其环境负荷影响。结果表明,区域序列噪声以白噪声+闪烁噪声或白噪声+幂律噪声组合模型为主,垂向分量噪声振幅明显高于水平分量,且空间分布呈现显著差异性。受季节性水文质量迁移和大气负荷影响,垂向序列中年周期波动主要由环境负荷贡献(>70%),且地下水位长期变化可引入与构造趋势相当的偏差,如URU2站14.6 a未修正的累积影响可达±36.5 mm。研究进一步揭示了城市与冲积层台站(如URU2站)噪声复杂性和扰动较大的特点,表明局部地质与人为活动对站点稳定性具有关键性影响。

, authors=刘立霞1, 李桂荣1, *, 刘东亚1, 李奎1, 张青远1, 古丽扎·艾尔肯1, authorsList=刘立霞, 李桂荣, 刘东亚, 李奎, 张青远, 古丽扎·艾尔肯, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=李桂荣, authorNote=

刘立霞,工程师,主要研究方向为数字地震资料处理及地震监测,E-mail:

, correspAuthorsNote=
李桂荣, 高级工程师, 主要研究方向为地震大地测量, E-mail:
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Computers and Geosciences, 2012, 49, 190- 199, articleTitle=Load Love Numbers and Green's Functions for Elastic Earth Models PREM, Iasp91, Ak135, and Modified Models with Refined Crustal Structure from Crust 2.0, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1322916935993795228, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2013, volume=87, issue=7, pageStart=687, pageEnd=703, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=24, rfOrder=35, authorNames=Jiang W P, Li Z, Dam T, journalName=Journal of Geodesy, refType=null, unstructuredReference= Jiang W P , Li Z , Dam T , et al. Comparative Analysis of Different Environmental Loading Methods and Their Impacts on the GPS Height Time Series[J]. 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Remote Sensing, 2018, 10 (6), articleTitle=Influences of Environmental Loading Corrections on the Nonlinear Variations and Velocity Uncertainties for the Reprocessed Global Positio-ning System Height Time Series of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1322916936153178782, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2013, volume=87, issue=4, pageStart=351, pageEnd=360, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=26, rfOrder=37, authorNames=Bos M S, Fernandes R M S, Williams S D P, journalName=Journal of Geodesy, refType=null, unstructuredReference= Bos M S , Fernandes R M S , Williams S D P , et al. Fast Error Analysis of Continuous GNSS Observations with Missing Data[J]. Journal of Geodesy, 2013, 87 (4): 351- 360, articleTitle=Fast Error Analysis of Continuous GNSS Observations with Missing Data, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1322916936237064863, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=1997, volume=102, issue=B8, pageStart=18035, pageEnd=18055, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=27, rfOrder=38, authorNames=Zhang J, Bock Y, Johnson H, journalName=Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, refType=null, unstructuredReference= Zhang J , Bock Y , Johnson H , et al. Southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array: Error Analysis of Daily Position Estimates and Site Velocities[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 1997, 102 (B8): 18035- 18055, articleTitle=Southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array: Error Analysis of Daily Position Estimates and Site Velocities, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1322916936304173728, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2010, volume=115, issue=B4, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=28, rfOrder=39, authorNames=King M A, Watson C S, journalName=Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, refType=null, unstructuredReference= King M A , Watson C S . Long GPS Coordinate Time Series: Multipath and Geometry Effects[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2010, 115 (B4), articleTitle=Long GPS Coordinate Time Series: Multipath and Geometry Effects, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1322916936375476897, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2003, volume=76, issue=9-10, pageStart=483, pageEnd=494, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=29, rfOrder=40, authorNames=Williams S D P, journalName=Journal of Geodesy, refType=null, unstructuredReference= Williams S D P . The Effect of Coloured Noise on the Uncertainties of Rates Estimated from Geodetic Time Series[J]. 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caption=乌鲁木齐地区地质构造图, figureFileSmall=Gvbdt3StRfdwAyU8Hyxv0Q==, figureFileBig=pIICfzZ8rnRWuBQh1uOMcg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322916929958191718, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, language=EN, label=Fig. 2, caption=Time series of URU2 reference station, figureFileSmall=vUxAM/ODQ4pYMIxIJOc6Vg==, figureFileBig=hNTQWt7GEPG1VqEqR7qCnA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322916930037883495, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, language=CN, label=图2, caption=URU2基准站时间序列, figureFileSmall=vUxAM/ODQ4pYMIxIJOc6Vg==, figureFileBig=hNTQWt7GEPG1VqEqR7qCnA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322916930134352488, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, language=EN, label=Fig. 3, caption=Schematic diagram of GNSS vertical time series decomposition at URU2 station and surface displacement mechanism induced by environmental loading, figureFileSmall=d1oD75RDvWbusevVQyObKQ==, figureFileBig=ZkCcs7Qf+hRpvibTIS58pQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322916930201461353, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, language=CN, label=图3, caption=URU2站GNSS垂向时间序列分解及环境负荷引起的地表位移机制示意图, figureFileSmall=d1oD75RDvWbusevVQyObKQ==, figureFileBig=ZkCcs7Qf+hRpvibTIS58pQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322916930272764522, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, language=EN, label=Tab. 1, caption=

Noise parameters of representative GNSS stations in the Urumqi area

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
站名 台址类型 垂向分量
最优模型
垂向分量FN/PL
振幅/mm·a-0.5
北分量
最优模型
北分量FN/PL
振幅/mm·a-0.5
东分量
最优模型
东分量FN/PL振
幅/mm·a-0.5
垂向/水
平振幅比
URXSE 山区基岩 WN+FN 2.1 WN+FN 0.8 WN+FN 1.0 1.28
URU2 城市冲积层 WN+PL
(γ=1.2)
5.8 WN+FN 1.5 WN+FN 1.7 2.27
URXGG 山前冲积扇 WN+FN 3.5 WN 1.2 WN 1.3 1.77
统计 — WN+FN
为主
— WN或
WN+FN
— WN或
WN+FN
—
), ArticleFig(id=1322916930394399339, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

乌鲁木齐地区代表性GNSS站噪声参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
站名 台址类型 垂向分量
最优模型
垂向分量FN/PL
振幅/mm·a-0.5
北分量
最优模型
北分量FN/PL
振幅/mm·a-0.5
东分量
最优模型
东分量FN/PL振
幅/mm·a-0.5
垂向/水
平振幅比
URXSE 山区基岩 WN+FN 2.1 WN+FN 0.8 WN+FN 1.0 1.28
URU2 城市冲积层 WN+PL
(γ=1.2)
5.8 WN+FN 1.5 WN+FN 1.7 2.27
URXGG 山前冲积扇 WN+FN 3.5 WN 1.2 WN 1.3 1.77
统计 — WN+FN
为主
— WN或
WN+FN
— WN或
WN+FN
—
), ArticleFig(id=1322916930495062636, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, language=EN, label=Tab. 2, caption=

Quantitative results of the impact of environmental loading on GNSS series at key stations

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
站名 垂向分量影响 水平分量影响
年周期振幅/mm 水文+积雪负荷贡献率 负荷引入的长期趋势/mm·a-1 年周期振幅/mm 水平位移主要方向
URXSE 3.2±0.4 ~65% -0.1±0.05 0.3±0.1 朝向山区(北偏西)
URU2 5.5±0.6 ~72% -0.7±0.15 0.4±0.1 朝向负荷中心(南偏东)
URXGG 4.1±0.5 ~68% -0.3±0.10 0.2±0.1 大致向南
), ArticleFig(id=1322916930583143021, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916922379084334, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

关键站点环境负荷对GNSS序列影响的量化结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
站名 垂向分量影响 水平分量影响
年周期振幅/mm 水文+积雪负荷贡献率 负荷引入的长期趋势/mm·a-1 年周期振幅/mm 水平位移主要方向
URXSE 3.2±0.4 ~65% -0.1±0.05 0.3±0.1 朝向山区(北偏西)
URU2 5.5±0.6 ~72% -0.7±0.15 0.4±0.1 朝向负荷中心(南偏东)
URXGG 4.1±0.5 ~68% -0.3±0.10 0.2±0.1 大致向南
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乌鲁木齐地区GNSS坐标时间序列噪声特征及其环境影响
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刘立霞 1 , 李桂荣 1, * , 刘东亚 1 , 李奎 1 , 张青远 1 , 古丽扎·艾尔肯 1
大地测量与地球动力学 | 特色栏目: 地震大地测量学 2026,46(8): 942-948
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大地测量与地球动力学 |特色栏目: 地震大地测量学 2026 , 46 (8) : 942 -948
乌鲁木齐地区GNSS坐标时间序列噪声特征及其环境影响
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刘立霞1 , 李桂荣1, * , 刘东亚1, 李奎1, 张青远1, 古丽扎·艾尔肯1
作者信息
  • 1 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 乌鲁木齐, 830011
通讯作者:
李桂荣, 高级工程师, 主要研究方向为地震大地测量, E-mail:
作者简介:

刘立霞,工程师,主要研究方向为数字地震资料处理及地震监测,E-mail:

Noise Characteristics and Environmental Impact of GNSS Coordinate Time Series in the Urumqi Region
Lixia LIU1 , Guirong LI1, * , Dongya LIU1, Kui LI1, Qingyuan ZHANG1, GULIZHA·Aierken1
Affiliations
  • 1 Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
出版时间: 2026-08-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.12.425
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以构造活动复杂、环境多变的乌鲁木齐地区为对象,基于多年连续GNSS观测数据,系统分析GNSS坐标时间序列的噪声特性及其环境负荷影响。结果表明,区域序列噪声以白噪声+闪烁噪声或白噪声+幂律噪声组合模型为主,垂向分量噪声振幅明显高于水平分量,且空间分布呈现显著差异性。受季节性水文质量迁移和大气负荷影响,垂向序列中年周期波动主要由环境负荷贡献(>70%),且地下水位长期变化可引入与构造趋势相当的偏差,如URU2站14.6 a未修正的累积影响可达±36.5 mm。研究进一步揭示了城市与冲积层台站(如URU2站)噪声复杂性和扰动较大的特点,表明局部地质与人为活动对站点稳定性具有关键性影响。

GNSS坐标时间序列  /  噪声特征  /  环境影响  /  负荷形变  /  乌鲁木齐  /  最大似然估计

Taking the Urumqi region characterized by complex tectonic activity and variable environment as a case study, we systematically analyze the noise characteristics and environmental loading impact of GNSS coordinate time series based on multi-year continuous GNSS observations. The results indicate that the regional noise time series are predominantly characterized by a combination model of white noise plus flicker noise or white noise plus power-law noise. The noise amplitude of vertical component is significantly higher than that of the horizontal component, and the spatial distribution exhibits notable heterogeneity. Influenced by seasonal hydrological mass migration and atmospheric loading, the annual signals in the vertical series are largely attributable to environmental loading (> 70%). Moreover, long-term variations in groundwater levels can introduce deviations comparable to tectonic trends. At URU2 station, the cumulative effect over 14.6 years without correction can reach up to ±36.5 mm. The study further reveals the heightened noise complexity and greater disturbance at urban and alluvial stations (URU2 station), highlighting the critical impact of local geological conditions and human activities on station stability.

GNSS coordinate time series  /  noise characteristics  /  environmental impact  /  loading deformation  /  Urumqi  /  maximum likelihood estimation
刘立霞, 李桂荣, 刘东亚, 李奎, 张青远, 古丽扎·艾尔肯. 乌鲁木齐地区GNSS坐标时间序列噪声特征及其环境影响. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2026 , 46 (8) : 942 -948 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.12.425
Lixia LIU, Guirong LI, Dongya LIU, Kui LI, Qingyuan ZHANG, GULIZHA·Aierken. Noise Characteristics and Environmental Impact of GNSS Coordinate Time Series in the Urumqi Region[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2026 , 46 (8) : 942 -948 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.12.425
GNSS技术已成为监测地壳运动、反演地球物理参数的核心手段。连续GNSS观测站记录的坐标时间序列,是构造形变、冰后回弹、地表负荷变化等多种地球物理过程与观测噪声的综合体现。序列中除包含构造运动的长期趋势、地震同震及震后形变、断层闭锁等信号外,还包含源自仪器、数据处理策略以及复杂环境因素的各类噪声。如何准确刻画噪声的统计特性,并量化分离各类环境效应的影响,是从观测数据中提取微弱构造信号、获取可靠速度场与形变参数的前提,对地震危险性分析、地质灾害预警以及地球动力学模型构建具有至关重要的意义[1-2]。
乌鲁木齐地处天山北麓、准噶尔盆地南缘,位于北天山构造带与准噶尔地块的交界处,新构造运动活跃,地震活动频繁。同时,该区域属中温带大陆性干旱气候,季节性温差大,积雪、冻融、地下水变化及人类活动剧烈,使得GNSS观测受到复杂且时变的非构造负荷影响[3-4]。因此,以乌鲁木齐地区为典型案例,开展GNSS坐标时间序列噪声特征及其环境驱动因素的精细化研究,具有突出的科学价值与示范效应[5-6]。
本文旨在:1)利用区域GNSS连续观测网数据,通过严谨的数据预处理与时间序列分析,系统揭示乌鲁木齐地区GNSS坐标时间序列的噪声模型与空间分布特征;2)融合多源地球物理数据(GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星数据、大气再分析资料、水文模型、积雪深度资料等),量化评估各类环境负荷对GNSS序列噪声,特别是季节性信号和趋势项的贡献。
乌鲁木齐地区地形复杂,总体呈南高北低之势。南部为东天山山脉,其中博格达峰海拔高达5 445 m,山体陡峻,冰川发育,是区域内重要的“固体水库”[7-8]。山区沟谷深切,岩体裸露,物理风化强烈;向北地势急剧降低,过渡为山前倾斜平原和冲积平原,平均海拔降至400~800 m;平原区地表由深厚的第四系松散沉积物构成。这种巨大的高差和复杂的地貌格局,深刻影响着区域内的水热分布、物质迁移和生态格局。
在地质构造上,该区处于北天山逆冲推覆构造系统的关键部位,新构造运动活跃[9]。除了乌鲁木齐隐伏断裂外,区域内还发育有一系列近东西向的逆断裂和褶皱构造(图 1),如西山断裂、七道湾背斜等。这些构造不仅塑造了现今的地貌形态,也控制着地下水的储存与运移路径。乌鲁木齐隐伏断裂作为一条重要的活动断裂,隐伏于城市之下,其对城市安全与工程建设具有潜在影响[10]。区域地层从前寒武系古老结晶基底到新生界松散堆积均有出露,其中山区广泛分布古生代沉积岩与火山岩,岩性坚硬,而平原区巨厚的砂砾石层则构成了重要的地下水含水系统[11]。
乌鲁木齐地区属于典型的中温带大陆性干旱气候,年均降水量约300 mm,但空间分布极不均匀,山区年降水量可达500~600 mm,而平原区仅200 mm左右[12]。降水季节分配悬殊,夏季(6—8月)降水量约占全年一半,冬季山区积雪深厚,最大雪深可达50~80 cm。每年春季(3—5月)的融雪径流与夏季的集中降水事件,共同构成区域地表径流和地下水补给的主要水源,这种“双峰”补给特征显著影响着河川径流的年内分配[13]。
近年来,随着城市化进程的加速,乌鲁木齐城市建成区面积急剧扩张,大量自然地表被混凝土、沥青等不透水层所取代[14]。这种改变不仅加剧了城市热岛效应,也根本性地扰动了自然水文循环。地表下渗能力大幅减弱,径流系数增大,导致地表径流量增加、汇流时间缩短,内涝风险上升。同时,城市生产和生活用水需求激增,地下水开采强度加大,局部地区已出现地下水位持续下降等问题[15]。城市化带来的土地利用/覆被变化,已成为影响该区域地表与地下水文过程不可忽视的强烈人为驱动力[16]。
选取乌鲁木齐及周边地区3个连续运行GNSS基准站(URU2、URXSE、URXGG)高频观测数据进行分析。数据采用卡尔曼滤波进行统一解算,获得国际地球参考框架(ITRF)下的测站坐标日解时间序列。预处理包括粗差剔除、阶跃(由仪器更换、地震、维护等引起)探测与修正,以及线性趋势和已知周期信号的初步拟合。
以URU2站为例,其观测数据时间跨度为2011-01-30—2025-08-26,共包含5 125个日解观测值。为反映原始数据的整体特征,统计其垂向分量日解序列特征量(未扣除趋势或周期项):平均值为-0.006 mm,标准差为1.241 mm,最小值为-5.700 mm(2014-05-28),最大值为7.300 mm (2019-07-14),数据范围达13.00 mm。图 2为该站经粗差剔除与初步预处理后的时间序列,其统计特征与原始序列存在差异,体现了数据处理过程中信号与噪声的初步分离。
本文噪声特征的统计分析均基于预处理后的残差序列,即在原始序列中扣除线性趋势、周年与半周年周期项以及修正后的阶跃信号。对东、北、垂向三分量分别进行统计,以揭示噪声在不同方向和空间位置上的差异,为准确评估各分量速度估计的不确定性,以及理解不同地球物理过程对GNSS观测的影响提供依据。
所选3个站点均具备连续高质量观测数据,空间分布覆盖研究区主要地貌与构造单元,具有良好的区域代表性和对比研究价值。URXSE站位于乌鲁木齐地区山区基岩上,地质构造稳定,受人类活动干扰较小,可作为区域背景噪声的参考。URU2站位于乌鲁木齐城市建成区的冲积层上,受城市化、地下水开采和建筑荷载等人类活动影响显著。URXGG站位于山前冲积扇区,地质条件与受干扰程度介于上述2个站之间。
为量化非构造负荷对GNSS时间序列的影响,收集同期的多源地球物理数据集。水文负荷采用GLDAS/Noah陆面模型模拟的土壤水和雪水当量数据,并辅以GRACE/GRACE-FO卫星重力数据反演的地表水储量变化进行对比与约束[17-18]。大气负荷由欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的ERA5高分辨率地表气压场数据计算获得[19]。积雪负荷结合中国雪深长时间序列数据集等遥感产品与地面气象站观测资料,以获取高精度的雪水当量时空分布[20]。尽管研究区地处内陆,为求完备,非潮汐海洋负荷仍被纳入考量,采用全球海平面、洋底压力模型数据进行计算[21]。
采用负荷格林函数将上述负荷数据转换为地表形变。首先将所有负荷数据重采样至统一的时空分辨率,然后基于PREM模型,利用负荷格林函数[22]与全球范围内的水文、大气、积雪、海洋负荷分布进行球谐卷积或空间卷积[23],最终计算出每一类负荷在乌鲁木齐地区每个GNSS站点位置引起的东、北、垂向三维地表位移时间序列。计算得到的理论负荷形变序列将与GNSS坐标时间序列进行直接对比。通过频谱分析和线性回归,量化各负荷分量(特别是水文与积雪)对GNSS序列中季节性信号和长期趋势项的贡献率。此外,从GNSS原始序列中扣除综合负荷效应,评估其对噪声水平(如振幅)和速度估计不确定性的影响[24-25]。
对预处理后的GNSS坐标时间序列残差进行功率谱密度分析,初步判断噪声类型。通过计算序列的傅里叶变换估计功率谱,在双对数坐标下观察谱线斜率κ[2]。若呈线性则表明噪声具有幂律特征:斜率κ≈0对应白噪声,κ≈1对应闪烁噪声,κ≈2对应随机游走噪声。
采用Hector软件[26]进行噪声模型的精确辨识与参数估计。该方法基于极大似然估计原理,构建包含趋势项、季节性信号及噪声协方差矩阵的统计模型。依次对白噪声+闪烁噪声、白噪声+随机游走噪声、白噪声+幂律噪声等常见组合进行拟合。采用贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)进行最优模型判定,BIC值最小的模型被确定为最优噪声模型。在最优噪声模型下,通过参数估计的协方差矩阵计算速度不确定性,并与纯白噪声假设下的估计结果进行对比[27]。
首先采用直接扣除法,将计算得到的水文、大气、积雪等三维负荷形变理论序列从原始GNSS坐标时间序列中逐一或联合扣除,生成相应的“GNSS-负荷”残差序列。通过比较扣除前后的时间序列,特别是垂向分量的季节性振幅衰减幅度和均方根(RMS)降低幅度,可直观评估负荷改正的初步效果[3]。
为更精确地量化各环境负荷的贡献,构建以下多元线性回归模型[4, 25]:
$\begin{gathered}y(t)=a+v t+ \\\sum\limits_{k=1}^2\left[c_k \cos \left(\omega_k t\right)+s_k \sin \left(\omega_k t\right)\right]+ \\\sum\limits_{j=1}^m \beta_j \cdot L_j(t)+\epsilon(t)\end{gathered}$
式中,y(t)为GNSS站坐标分量的日解时间序列;a为截距;v为线性构造速度; ωk为年周期的角频率;ck、sk为周期信号的回归系数;Lj(t)为各环境负荷序列(如水文、大气、积雪形变);βj为回归系数;ϵ(t)为回归残差。通过最小二乘估计求解所有参数。各环境负荷因子的贡献率可通过比较引入该因子前后回归模型残差方差(或RMS)的减少比例来定量评估。同时,计算GNSS原始序列与各负荷序列的皮尔逊相关系数,以衡量其线性相关性。
采用连续小波变换与小波相干分析[25]揭示GNSS序列与环境负荷在时频域的动态关联,识别特定时段与周期波段上的显著相干性。对于回归后存在的异常噪声或阶跃,结合台站元数据日志、高分辨率遥感影像时序分析和实地勘察进行诊断,建立异常信号与局部环境事件的因果关联[28]。
对乌鲁木齐地区所有GNSS站坐标时间序列的分析表明,其残差序列均无法用纯白噪声模型充分描述。通过最大似然估计与贝叶斯信息准则模型选择,最优噪声模型均为包含时间相关噪声的组合模型[26]。其中,白噪声+闪烁噪声组合或更广义的白噪声+幂律噪声组合占据主导地位[29]。
1) 分量差异。如表 1所示,噪声参数表现出显著的各向异性。垂向分量的噪声振幅普遍是水平分量的2~3倍。此外,在垂向分量中检测到随机游走噪声成分的站点比例更高,表明垂向观测受到更为复杂的环境过程(如地下水变化、非均匀大气负荷)影响。
2) 空间差异。噪声水平具有明显的空间异质性。从表 1可以看出,位于稳定基岩上的山区站(如URXSE),其噪声振幅,尤其是垂向分量,显著低于位于深厚冲积层或城市区域的盆地站(如URU2)。这明确揭示了局部地质条件(如沉积层的弹性响应)和人类活动(如地下水开采、地面荷载变化)对GNSS观测稳定性的强烈控制作用。
环境负荷是GNSS坐标时间序列(特别是垂向分量)中季节性信号的主要来源。通过多元线性回归模型分离发现,乌鲁木齐地区超过70%的GNSS垂向年周期振幅可由水文负荷(含积雪)和大气负荷共同解释(图 3(a))。其中,水文负荷起主导作用,贡献率普遍在60%~70%之间。春季融雪与夏季降水共同导致地表水质量增加,引发地表下沉(即负向位移),这与GNSS观测到的反相位年周期信号(夏季最低点)完全吻合。大气负荷的贡献相对稳定,但量级较小,约占季节性振幅的10%~15%。以URU2站为例,其垂向时间序列分解显示,构造趋势斜率约为0.000 2 mm/月(0.003 mm/a),截距为-0.026 mm。环境负荷引起的年周期振幅达2.500 mm,相位为0.785 rad (对应峰值出现在年中)。值得注意的是,模型估算的环境负荷贡献率达203.4%,该值超过100%,表明模型中可能存在非线性耦合效应、未模型化的高频噪声或局部环境干扰,导致负荷信号被高估,需进一步结合多源数据进行交叉验证。
除季节性信号外,长期的环境质量变化也会在GNSS序列中引入非线性趋势或使速率发生变化。分析表明,区域水文变化(特别是地下水超采导致的持续亏损)可能在部分位于冲积平原的台站(如URU2)引入微小的长期下沉趋势(表 2)。基于GRACE卫星重力数据反演的区域水储量趋势(2011—2025年),采用负荷格林函数(PREM模型)将等效水高变化转换为地表垂直位移。计算结果显示,研究区内不同台站因局部地质与水文条件差异,所受影响范围为-0.7~-0.1 mm/a(表 2列出各站具体估值)。这意味着,若忽略此环境贡献,对构造沉降速率估计可能产生同等量级的系统性偏差,在10 a尺度上可累积达数毫米。忽略环境负荷对URU2站构造趋势估计的影响显著,可能导致趋势估计偏差达±2.50 mm/a。在约14.6 a时间尺度上,累积偏差可达±36.5 mm,远超构造趋势本身(0.003 mm/a)。这凸显了环境负荷改正对高精度构造运动监测的必要性。
环境负荷对水平分量的影响较垂向分量小约一个数量级(表 2)。其主要表现为微弱的季节性波动,振幅通常小于0.5 mm。水平位移的方向性与区域负荷质量中心的空间分布有关:在乌鲁木齐地区,水文质量增加(夏季)引起地表向负荷中心(大致位于天山山区与山前平原交界带)水平汇聚;反之,在质量亏损的冬季则表现为水平发散(图 3(b))。这一特征与弹性负荷形变理论预测一致。
本研究系统分析了乌鲁木齐地区GNSS坐标时间序列的噪声特征及其环境负荷影响,揭示了该地区GNSS观测数据中非构造信号的重要性及其空间分异规律。研究结果表明,区域GNSS序列噪声特征具有明显的空间分异性:基岩台站(如URXSE)主要表现为白噪声+闪烁噪声模型;位于冲积层或城市区域的台站(如URU2)则更适用白噪声+幂律噪声模型。垂向分量噪声振幅显著高于水平分量,且噪声特性在不同地质条件与人为环境下存在明显差异。若采用纯白噪声模型,将严重低估速度估计的不确定性(通常可达2~5倍),从而影响构造运动的正确解释。
环境负荷是GNSS垂向序列中非构造信号的主要来源。季节性水文质量迁移(尤其是融雪与降水过程)主导了垂向年周期波动,贡献率超过70%,其信号特征与弹性负荷理论预测一致。更重要的是,长期水文趋势(如地下水超采)可在部分站点引入与构造运动相当的偏差。以URU2站为例,未校正的环境负荷在14.6 a时间内可能导致累积偏差达±36.5 mm,凸显了在高精度构造运动监测中进行环境负荷改正的必要性。
噪声特征的空间分异性进一步揭示出台站局地环境的关键影响。基岩台站(如URXSE)噪声水平显著低于城市及冲积层台站(如URU2),表明地质条件、人类活动(如地下水开采、城市建设)对观测稳定性具有决定性作用。因此,在未来GNSS台网建设与维护中,应将台址稳定性评估与长期环境监测置于与仪器精度同等重要的地位。
本研究通过融合GNSS观测、多源遥感数据与物理模型,有效识别与分离了构造与非构造信号,显著提升了GNSS时间序列在地壳形变监测中的解释可靠性与数据质量。研究成果不仅为乌鲁木齐地区GNSS数据的精细处理与构造信号提取提供了实证依据,也为类似复杂环境下的GNSS应用提供了可借鉴的方法与参考。
  • 中国地震局“三结合”课题(CEA-SJH-202601078)
  • 国家自然科学基金(42574075)
  • 国家自然科学基金(42274014)
  • 国家自然科学基金(41874015)
  • 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(202501A88)
  • 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2022D01B44)
  • 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2022D01A106)
  • 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2023D01A105)
  • 新疆天山英才科技创新团队(2024TSYCTD0014)
  • 国家外国专家局智力引进计划(G2022045013L)
  • 科技基础资源调查专项(2025FY101902)
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2026年第46卷第8期
32
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doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.12.425
  • 接收时间:2025-12-05
  • 首发时间:2026-10-30
  • 出版时间:2026-08-15
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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-05
基金
中国地震局“三结合”课题(CEA-SJH-202601078)
国家自然科学基金(42574075)
国家自然科学基金(42274014)
国家自然科学基金(41874015)
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(202501A88)
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2022D01B44)
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2022D01A106)
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2023D01A105)
新疆天山英才科技创新团队(2024TSYCTD0014)
国家外国专家局智力引进计划(G2022045013L)
科技基础资源调查专项(2025FY101902)
作者信息
    1 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 乌鲁木齐, 830011

通讯作者:

李桂荣, 高级工程师, 主要研究方向为地震大地测量, E-mail:
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
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