Article(id=1322567009729106474, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, issueId=1322566927927591451, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.14075/j.jgg.2025.05.160, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1746720000000, receivedDateStr=2025-05-09, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793254147226, onlineDateStr=2026-10-29, pubDate=1773504000000, pubDateStr=2026-03-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793254147226, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793254147226, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793254147226, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322566927927591451, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, year='2026', volume='46', issue='3', pageStart='262', pageEnd='391', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1773504000000', pubDateStr='2026-03-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793254127723, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793254127723, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=316, endPage=320, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322567009917850155, articleId=1322567009729106474, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=EN, title=Test of Earth Tide Triggering before the Xizang Dingri MS6.8 Earthquake in 2025, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Using Schuster statistical test method, the correlation between tidal body stress and moderate and small earthquakes occurred in the epicenter and its vicinity before the Xizang Dingri MS6.8 earthquake on January 7, 2025 is investigated. The test results were evaluated by the statistical parameter P value, and the lower the P value, the stronger the statistical significance of the correlation. According to the phase angle statistics of the tidal force modulation caused by the semidiurnal tide and the semilunar tide in the epicenter, the P value of the semidiurnal tide test result is 1.26%, which is lower than triggering threshold of the tidal stress, and most earthquakes occur near the minimum of the semidiurnal tide; the P value of the semilunar tide does not pass the significance test. Further analysis of the temporal and spatial smoothing windows of the P-value based on the semidiurnal tide shows that the P-value decreases significantly before the Dingri MS6.8 earthquake, and the low P-value area of the spatial smoothing window is concentrated in the north of the epicenter of the Dingri MS6.8 earthquake. It is shown that the occurrence of moderate and small earthquakes in the epicenter and its vicinity before the Dingri MS6.8 earthquake is obviously related to the triggering of solid tide, and these moderate and small earthquakes have certain precursory significance for the occurrence of the Dingri MS6.8 earthquake.

, authors=Xia LI1, Changpeng XU1, authorsList=Xia LI, Changpeng XU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322567012828697145, articleId=1322567009729106474, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=CN, title=2025年西藏定日MS6.8地震前地震的固体潮触发检验, columnId=1281933709121138897, journalTitle=大地测量与地球动力学, columnName=地球动力学, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

利用Schuster统计检验方法分析固体潮体应力与2025-01-07西藏定日MS6.8地震前发生在震中及附近区域中小地震之间的相关性。检验结果用统计参量P值来评价,P值越低,相关性统计显著性越强。从震源地半日潮和半月潮引发潮汐体力调制作用的相位角统计来看,半日潮检验结果P值为1.26%,低于潮汐应力触发阈值,多数地震发生在半日潮极小值附近;半月潮P值未通过显著性检验。进一步分析基于半日潮的P值时间平滑窗和空间平滑窗的统计结果显示,定日MS6.8地震前P值显著下降,空间低P值区域集中在定日MS6.8地震震中北侧。表明定日MS6.8地震前震中及附近区域中小地震的发生与固体潮触发有较明显相关性,对定日MS6.8地震的发生有一定的前兆意义。

, authors=李霞1, 徐长朋1, authorsList=李霞, 徐长朋, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

李霞, 高级工程师, 主要研究方向为地震活动性和数字地震学, E-mail:

, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=版权所有,未经授权,不得转载。, copyrightOwner=大地测量与地球动力学编辑部, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=oNrJVbxctebOeePT9Bs18g==, magXml=odAQL94dYr0td1wKb7Gptw==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=8D3gGxG3vNiFxjbypGjdAg==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=vaJ5dwIq8/y9jol7EyR2oA==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1322567013403316798, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322567009729106474, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=cyfm@163.com, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1322567013495591488, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322567009729106474, authorId=1322567013403316798, language=EN, stringName=Xia LI, firstName=Xia, middleName=null, lastName=LI, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1 Shandong Earthquake Agency, Jinan 250102, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1322567013566894657, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322567009729106474, authorId=1322567013403316798, language=CN, stringName=李霞, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1 山东省地震局, 济南, 250102, bio={"content":"

李霞, 高级工程师, 主要研究方向为地震活动性和数字地震学, E-mail:

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李霞, 高级工程师, 主要研究方向为地震活动性和数字地震学, E-mail:

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2025年西藏定日MS6.8地震前地震的固体潮触发检验
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李霞 1 , 徐长朋 1
大地测量与地球动力学 | 地球动力学 2026,46(3): 316-320
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大地测量与地球动力学 |地球动力学 2026 , 46 (3) : 316 -320
2025年西藏定日MS6.8地震前地震的固体潮触发检验
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李霞, 高级工程师, 主要研究方向为地震活动性和数字地震学, E-mail:

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李霞1 , 徐长朋1
作者信息
  • 1 山东省地震局, 济南, 250102
作者简介:

李霞, 高级工程师, 主要研究方向为地震活动性和数字地震学, E-mail:

Test of Earth Tide Triggering before the Xizang Dingri MS6.8 Earthquake in 2025
Xia LI1 , Changpeng XU1
Affiliations
  • 1 Shandong Earthquake Agency, Jinan 250102, China
出版时间: 2026-03-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.05.160
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利用Schuster统计检验方法分析固体潮体应力与2025-01-07西藏定日MS6.8地震前发生在震中及附近区域中小地震之间的相关性。检验结果用统计参量P值来评价,P值越低,相关性统计显著性越强。从震源地半日潮和半月潮引发潮汐体力调制作用的相位角统计来看,半日潮检验结果P值为1.26%,低于潮汐应力触发阈值,多数地震发生在半日潮极小值附近;半月潮P值未通过显著性检验。进一步分析基于半日潮的P值时间平滑窗和空间平滑窗的统计结果显示,定日MS6.8地震前P值显著下降,空间低P值区域集中在定日MS6.8地震震中北侧。表明定日MS6.8地震前震中及附近区域中小地震的发生与固体潮触发有较明显相关性,对定日MS6.8地震的发生有一定的前兆意义。

定日MS6.8地震  /  潮汐体应力  /  相位角  /  Schuster检验

Using Schuster statistical test method, the correlation between tidal body stress and moderate and small earthquakes occurred in the epicenter and its vicinity before the Xizang Dingri MS6.8 earthquake on January 7, 2025 is investigated. The test results were evaluated by the statistical parameter P value, and the lower the P value, the stronger the statistical significance of the correlation. According to the phase angle statistics of the tidal force modulation caused by the semidiurnal tide and the semilunar tide in the epicenter, the P value of the semidiurnal tide test result is 1.26%, which is lower than triggering threshold of the tidal stress, and most earthquakes occur near the minimum of the semidiurnal tide; the P value of the semilunar tide does not pass the significance test. Further analysis of the temporal and spatial smoothing windows of the P-value based on the semidiurnal tide shows that the P-value decreases significantly before the Dingri MS6.8 earthquake, and the low P-value area of the spatial smoothing window is concentrated in the north of the epicenter of the Dingri MS6.8 earthquake. It is shown that the occurrence of moderate and small earthquakes in the epicenter and its vicinity before the Dingri MS6.8 earthquake is obviously related to the triggering of solid tide, and these moderate and small earthquakes have certain precursory significance for the occurrence of the Dingri MS6.8 earthquake.

Dingri MS6.8 earthquake  /  tidal stress  /  phase angle  /  Schuster test
李霞, 徐长朋. 2025年西藏定日MS6.8地震前地震的固体潮触发检验. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2026 , 46 (3) : 316 -320 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.05.160
Xia LI, Changpeng XU. Test of Earth Tide Triggering before the Xizang Dingri MS6.8 Earthquake in 2025[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2026 , 46 (3) : 316 -320 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.05.160
固体潮汐应力源于月球、太阳等天体产生的起潮力引起的固体地球周期性形变,其量级仅为构造应力的1‰~1%(103 Pa),但加载速率却比构造应力累积的速率大2个量级[1]。这也是学者们普遍认为微小的周期性潮汐应力扰动可能会促进处于临界状态的断层快速破裂而引发地震的依据。据此观点,简单统计地震发生时刻与月相的对应关系,发现中国多数强震的发生受固体潮触发特征明显[2],华北地区地震活跃时段的M5以上地震和一些强震的余震序列发生在朔望和上、下弦时期的比率大于50%[3-4]。基于大量样本的统计检验也显示,全球俯冲带的浅源地震在潮汐剪应力较高时发生率显著增加[5]。美国圣安德烈斯断层帕克菲尔德段浅层微震活动的触发效率与季节性强降雨引起的孔隙压力变化叠加时显著增强,但在断层闭锁区不显著[6];云南宁洱地区M≥6.0地震序列的发生与地球潮汐之间存在显著相关性[7]等。尽管研究区域不同、目标地震大小不一,但认识的共同点在于:周期性潮汐应力的瞬时变化会在震源断层面上引起应力变化,这种应力变化或许会激发一些中小地震。而在某些构造应力场不稳定地区,这些被激发的中小地震或许可作为强震即将发生的前兆异常。如1975年辽宁海城MS7.3地震的前震序列具有固体潮触发特征[8],2004年印度尼西亚苏门答腊MW9.0地震以及2011年日本本州MW9.1地震前在震中附近地区发生的地震活动存在明显被固体潮触发的现象[9-10]。
2025-01-07西藏定日发生MS6.8强震,震中位于28.5°N、87.45°E。该次地震的发震断裂为位于喜马拉雅地块内SN走向的申扎-定结裂谷系南段的登么错断裂[11],该断裂附近地震活跃,2015年尼泊尔MS8.1地震后当天即发生MS5.9响应地震,此后断裂沿线的定日-定结县附近MS≥4.0地震明显增多,并呈面状分布特征[12],同时定结县附近垂直形变速率和应变率也显著升高[13],显示出登么错断裂及附近区域构造应力累积水平上升明显。基于此背景,本文将利用PREM地球模型,计算固体潮在定日MS6.8地震震源区引起的潮汐附加体应力,分析固体潮对西藏定日MS6.8地震前震中及附近地区发生中小地震的触发作用,检验这些中小地震是否对定日MS6.8地震的发生具有前兆意义。
选取2015年尼泊尔MS8.1地震后登么错断裂沿线及附近(28°~29.3°N,87.1°~88.1°E)地震活动开始增强至定日MS6.8地震前,即2015-04-20—2025-01-06期间发生的地震事件作为研究资料。图 1中黑色虚线围成的区域为本文研究区,红色五角星为定日6.8地震震中位置,这一区域完全涵盖了定日MS6.8地震的余震破裂区[14]。根据G-R关系确定研究区内地震目录的完备性震级下限为ML2.0,符合条件的地震数为631个,震级完备性检验结果如图 2所示。考虑丛集地震或余震序列会导致潮汐相位角的分布结果严重偏离实际情况[15]。因此,选用伪随机时空窗法[16]对研究区内ML≥2.0地震进行余震删除,去除余震后的地震数为564个,包括6.0~6.9地震2次,5.0~5.9地震4次,4.0~4.9地震24次,3.0~3.9地震124次,2.0~2.9地震410次,地震活动的空间分布如图 1所示。图 3也给出了这些地震活动的时序分布,图中2016—2019年间可能由于监测能力所限,低震级事件较少,2021年后低震级的地震活动明显增多,反映出定日MS6.8地震前区域应力水平的增强过程。
当有足够的地震样本量时,通常从统计的角度研究地震活动的潮汐触发特征。其中广泛使用的是Schuster统计检验方法[17],该方法首先给每个地震赋予一个潮汐相位角,统计一组地震的相位角是否具有某一优势分布区间,然后通过统计参量P值来判定地震是否受到引潮力的触发。潮汐体应力不随坐标旋转而改变,也不受断层面影响,反映的是震源地的整体受力状态,因此本文选用潮汐体应力计算震源地的潮汐应力。计算相位角时规定,距离地震发生时间最近的体应力周期性变化曲线的波峰处相位角为0°,其之前和之后的波谷处相位角分别为-180°和180°。然后将波峰和波谷之间的角距离线性划分,以波峰值0°为坐标即可确定地震的潮汐相位角。按照上述方法确定所有地震的潮汐相位角后,每一个地震依据其潮汐相位角被表征为一个单位长度的向量,对于总数为N的一组地震来说,这些向量的和L可表示为:
$\boldsymbol{L}^2=\left(\sum\limits_{i=1}^N \sin \theta_i\right)^2+\left(\sum\limits_{i=1}^N \cos \theta_i\right)^2$
式中,θi为第i个地震的相位角。如果地震随机发生,与潮汐体应力无关,则潮汐相位角应随机分布。此时和向量长度大于等于L的概率为:
$P=\exp \left(-\frac{\boldsymbol{L}^2}{N}\right)$
P值为定量描述地震活动与引潮力之间相关程度的指标,取值范围为0~1,P值越小,引潮力与地震活动的相关度越高。一般将P<5%作为判断潮汐应力能否触发地震的阈值[17]。
一般将潮汐周期性曲线中的0°称为大潮(日尺度为半日潮峰值,月尺度为半月潮峰值或农历朔、望),±180°称为小潮(日尺度为半日潮谷值,月尺度为半月潮谷值或农历上、下弦)。以此判断地震活动是受到大潮或小潮调制,还是不受调制。
根据上述潮汐相位角计算方法和是否受到调制作用的判断原则,分别计算研究区内564个地震的日尺度和月尺度的潮汐体应力相位角,并以30°为统计区间绘制相位角分布图(图 4),图中纵轴表示频度,横轴表示相位角,红色曲线为余弦函数最佳拟合线,由此函数可以看出发震时刻潮汐相位的分布特征,也给出代表相关程度的统计参量P值。如图 4(a)所示,半日潮潮汐体应力相位角分布中,地震多发生在极小值附近的-160°和120°前后,极大值0°附近发生地震最少,即当潮汐体应力相对小时,发生地震最多;计算获得P值为1.26%,明显低于显著性检验阈值5%,余弦函数拟合曲线的振幅变化明显,说明半日潮小潮体应力对研究区中小地震的发生具有触发作用。对半月潮体应力而言(图 4(b)),-120°和90°附近是地震发生的相对高发相位角区间,其他相位角区间统计地震发生数量相近,即地震发生的优势相位区间不突出,最佳余弦拟合函数曲线的振幅变化趋近于0。同时统计参量P值高达72.9%,显示研究区地震活动基本不受半月潮汐体应力影响。在确定研究区内中小地震活动受半日潮调制的前提下,为探讨定日MS6.8地震前,这些地震对主震而言是否具有前兆意义,本文进一步从时间、空间2个维度进行潮汐体应力的滑动窗触发检验。
为检验研究区潮汐体应力随时间的演化过程,将2015-04-20—2025-01-06期间ML≥2.0地震以窗长2 a、步长3个月划分为若干滑动时间窗,计算每个时间窗内的统计参量P值,计算得到的P值时间取窗内最后一个地震的发生时间。依次计算完成后就可以得到P值随时间的变化过程。计算中仍以半日潮时程函数获取地震相位角,每个时间窗内要求地震总数N≥10为P值计算最小有效样本数[8]。计算得到的P值时间窗平滑结果见图 5,图中红实线为潮汐触发阈值5%,在时间轴上标注了2020-03-20 MS5.9地震和定日MS6.8地震。可以看出,2020-03-20 MS5.9地震和2025-01-07定日MS6.8地震前P值均出现明显下降趋势,但都未达到或超出潮汐体应力触发地震阈值的5%,其中定日6.8地震前滑动曲线降低幅度明显,P值从2023年初开始出现逐渐下降的变化形态,至2023年底快速下降,之后仍在逐步降低,最小P值出现在震前3个月,为6.12%,大于但接近5%的触发阈值,说明半日潮潮汐体应力与定日MS6.8地震前震源区中小地震的发生存在一定的触发关系,但不显著。
在对P值空间窗平滑结果的统计检验中,将研究区ML≥2.0的地震按经度和纬度方向分别进行空间平滑,即取0.3°×0.3°的空间窗口,以0.1°为滑动步长,计算每个窗内地震活动的统计参量P值,结果置于0.3°×0.3°的窗口内,仍要求每个窗内的统计地震数N≥10,计算结果见图 6。一个地区的地震活动是否容易受到潮汐应力触发,在一定程度上反映出该区域的构造应力场是否处于失稳的前兆状态[8]。图 6中色标颜色由暗红到白,表示地震受固体潮调制由强到弱,因此空间窗内颜色的变化在一定程度上也反映出区域构造应力水平的差异。图 6(a)为ML≥2.0地震的P值空间平滑结果,可以看出,低值区域(暗红色区域)集中在定日MS6.8地震震源位置的北侧,这一区域是定日MS6.8地震发震构造向北破裂的起始区域,也是震前研究区内中小地震活动集中度最高的地区(图 1)。有研究显示,强震前破裂区及附近中小地震起始震级越高,被固体潮触发的现象越明显[18]。因此,本文也给出研究区ML≥2.5地震P≤5%的空间平滑结果。如图 6(b)所示,P值的低值集中区域和图 6(a)基本一致,范围更向震源位置的西北侧集中,最低值为0.68%,远远小于潮汐触发阈值。该结果与研究区时间平滑窗的检验结果一致,反映出研究区内的中小地震活动在一定程度上受到潮汐体应力的触发作用,也表明定日MS6.8地震前,其北侧区域的构造应力场逐步处于强震前的失稳状态。
强震前震源区附近的断层已处于不稳定状态,微小应力扰动触发的中小地震活动在时间和空间上的分布特征或许会对未来强震的发生具有前兆指示意义。本文利用Schuster统计检验方法,以潮汐体应力为计算量,分析西藏定日MS6.8地震前震中及附近地区中小地震受固体潮触发特征,及其对定日MS6.8地震的发生是否具有指示意义。得到的研究结果如下:
1) 定日MS6.8地震前,震源区及附近地区的中小地震活动具有受半日潮体应力触发的特征,P值为1.26%,明显低于潮汐触发阈值,地震活动多发生在半日潮体应力的极小值附近;地震活动与半月潮体应力间不存在明显的统计相关性。
2) Schuster检验P值时间窗平滑结果与定日6.8级地震震源区内较强地震有明显对应关系,2020年MS5.9地震和定日MS6.8地震前P值时间窗平滑结果均出现明显低值,MS5.9地震后P值即恢复高值(图 5),反映出强震的发震与固体潮关系密切。这2次地震前的P值时间窗平滑结果虽未达到触发阈值或称之为较弱触发,但在强震发生的时间上仍有指示意义。
3) 从Schuster检验P值空间窗平滑结果看,定日MS6.8地震处于或接近固体潮调制触发地区,即强震发生在受固体潮调制的中小地震空间分布范围附近。这一结果也与时间窗平滑结果相互印证。
4) 从时间、空间2个方面来看,定日MS6.8地震前震中及附近区域的中小地震的发生与固体潮具有较明显的相关性。这些中小地震活动可认为对定日MS6.8地震的发生在时间和空间上具有前兆指示意义。
  • 山东省地震局科研项目(YB2501)
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doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.05.160
  • 接收时间:2025-05-09
  • 首发时间:2026-10-29
  • 出版时间:2026-03-15
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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-09
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山东省地震局科研项目(YB2501)
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    1 山东省地震局, 济南, 250102
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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