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Article(id=1322566815880958193, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, issueId=1322566763112415546, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.14075/j.jgg.2025.01.591, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1735747200000, receivedDateStr=2025-01-02, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793254101008, onlineDateStr=2026-10-29, pubDate=1768406400000, pubDateStr=2026-01-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793254101008, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793254101008, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793254101008, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322566763112415546, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, year='2026', volume='46', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='138', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1768406400000', pubDateStr='2026-01-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793254088427, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793254088427, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=115, endPage=122, 130, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322566816107450611, articleId=1322566815880958193, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=EN, title=Comparison of Forecasting Efficiency of Borehole Strain Instruments at the Same Site of Xuzhou Seismic Station, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Based on the observational data of two types of borehole strainmeters at Xuzhou seismic station, we use the R-value test method to calculate and score the forecasting efficiency of trend-breakinganomalies, annual breaking anomalies and rate anomalies recorded by the two instruments. A systematic comparative analysis of the forecasting efficiency of the two borehole strain instruments at the same site is conducted to clarify their complementarity in earthquake precursor monitoring. The results show that the borehole body strainmeter performs well in the forecasting of trend-breaking anomalies and annual breaking anomalies, and is suitable for capturing the earthquake precursor anomaly signals related to long-term geological tectonic activities. The borehole component strainmeter shows a strong ability in the forecasting of trend-breaking anomalies and rate anomalies, and is more adept at capturing the trend-breaking precursor anomaly signals caused by stress state changes of geological body, and has high sensitivity for the monitoring of rapid changes in regional stress and strain. These findings reveal the efficiency differences of borehole strainmeters in earthquake precursor monitoring and provide the application focus and optimization direction of the two types of borehole strainmeters in earthquake forecasting.

, authors=Ran HAO1, Dongdong LIU2, Mingzhi GAO1, Cen ZHANG2, Bin HE2, Chuanlei DONG2, Bing XU2, authorsList=Ran HAO, Dongdong LIU, Mingzhi GAO, Cen ZHANG, Bin HE, Chuanlei DONG, Bing XU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322566817973915908, articleId=1322566815880958193, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=CN, title=徐州地震台同场地钻孔应变仪器预报效能对比分析, columnId=1281933709121138897, journalTitle=大地测量与地球动力学, columnName=地球动力学, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

基于徐州地震台2种钻孔应变仪的观测数据，应用R值检验方法对2种仪器记录的趋势转折型异常、破年变型异常及速率型异常的预报效能进行评分计算，系统地对比分析同场地2套钻孔应变仪器的预报效能，明确二者在地震前兆监测中的互补性。结果表明，钻孔体应变仪对趋势转折型异常和破年变型异常的预报效能表现良好，适合捕捉与长期地质构造活动相关的地震前兆异常信号。钻孔分量应变仪在趋势转折型异常和速率型异常的预报中展现出较强的能力，更擅长捕捉地质体受力状态发生变化而产生的趋势转折前兆异常信号，对于区域应力应变快速变化的监测具有较高灵敏性。研究结果揭示了钻孔应变仪器在地震前兆监测中的效能差异，同时给出了二者在地震预报中的应用重点及优化方向。

, authors=郝冉1, 刘冬冬2, 高明智1, 张岑2, 何斌2, 董传磊2, 许炳2, authorsList=郝冉, 刘冬冬, 高明智, 张岑, 何斌, 董传磊, 许炳, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

郝冉, 工程师, 主要研究方向为地球物理学, E-mail:

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郝冉, 工程师, 主要研究方向为地球物理学, E-mail:

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郝冉, 工程师, 主要研究方向为地球物理学, E-mail:

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tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566821891395909, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=CN, label=图8, caption=徐州台钻孔应变速率异常及预测地震分布, figureFileSmall=fbl63IDE+75DQoGLt/+dVQ==, figureFileBig=2Pz7EK3CBLjwv2H6JFpFsQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566821975281990, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=EN, label=Tab. 1, caption=

Comparison of abnormal response characteristics of borehole strain

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
仪器类型震例日期震级M震中距/km异常提前时间/d异常响应特征
TJ-Ⅱ型钻孔体应变仪 2008-05-073.6165.4127破周年信号
2008-07-303.199.211变化速率加速
2010-04-117.17 183.3416趋势转折
2014-12-163.354.948破周年信号
2015-06-293.8126.915变化速率加速
2015-12-253.0109.414变化速率加速
2017-08-087.01 241.6310趋势转折
2017-09-104.0123.69变化速率加速
2019-06-113.4176.118变化速率加速
2020-05-243.781.76变化速率加速
2021-08-133.4126.92变化速率加速
2023-05-103.0119.37变化速率加速
2023-08-065.0280.25变化速率加速、脉冲
YRY-4型钻孔分量应变仪 2008-05-073.6165.449破周年信号
2008-07-303.199.226变化速率加速
2009-10-203.08.17变化速率加速
2010-04-117.17 183.3301趋势转折
2013-12-153.054.39变化速率加速
2013-12-153.0107.219变化速率加速
2015-02-163.354.99破周年信号
2015-03-144.8168.613变化速率加速
2015-03-234.1163.522变化速率加速
2015-06-293.8206.055破周年信号
2015-12-253.094.6132破周年信号
2017-03-103.0101.85变化速率加速
2017-03-103.0101.85变化速率加速
2019-03-173.057.222变化速率加速
2019-03-213.042.326变化速率加速
2019-11-014.0224.826变化速率加速
2020-05-243.781.76变化速率加速
2020-09-243.2122.224变化速率加速
2021-07-093.040.627变化速率加速
2023-04-043.078.6109破周年信号
2023-04-063.065.83变化速率加速
2023-08-065.0280.21变化速率加速
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822080139591, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

钻孔应变异常响应特征对比

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
仪器类型震例日期震级M震中距/km异常提前时间/d异常响应特征
TJ-Ⅱ型钻孔体应变仪 2008-05-073.6165.4127破周年信号
2008-07-303.199.211变化速率加速
2010-04-117.17 183.3416趋势转折
2014-12-163.354.948破周年信号
2015-06-293.8126.915变化速率加速
2015-12-253.0109.414变化速率加速
2017-08-087.01 241.6310趋势转折
2017-09-104.0123.69变化速率加速
2019-06-113.4176.118变化速率加速
2020-05-243.781.76变化速率加速
2021-08-133.4126.92变化速率加速
2023-05-103.0119.37变化速率加速
2023-08-065.0280.25变化速率加速、脉冲
YRY-4型钻孔分量应变仪 2008-05-073.6165.449破周年信号
2008-07-303.199.226变化速率加速
2009-10-203.08.17变化速率加速
2010-04-117.17 183.3301趋势转折
2013-12-153.054.39变化速率加速
2013-12-153.0107.219变化速率加速
2015-02-163.354.99破周年信号
2015-03-144.8168.613变化速率加速
2015-03-234.1163.522变化速率加速
2015-06-293.8206.055破周年信号
2015-12-253.094.6132破周年信号
2017-03-103.0101.85变化速率加速
2017-03-103.0101.85变化速率加速
2019-03-173.057.222变化速率加速
2019-03-213.042.326变化速率加速
2019-11-014.0224.826变化速率加速
2020-05-243.781.76变化速率加速
2020-09-243.2122.224变化速率加速
2021-07-093.040.627变化速率加速
2023-04-043.078.6109破周年信号
2023-04-063.065.83变化速率加速
2023-08-065.0280.21变化速率加速
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822159831368, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=EN, label=Tab. 2, caption=

Trend-breaking anomalies performance of borehole strain

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
预报效能参数钻孔体应变仪 钻孔分量应变仪
1号元件(N42°E)2号元件(N87°E)3号元件(N132°E)4号元件(N177°E)剪应变S13剪应变S24面应变Sa
窗长/d3659036590180909090
步长/d71577773030
最佳预报时长/d9012045063042012012030
最佳阈值/STD157.676.1845.3916.6257.2233.0853.07
Rmax0.320.550.610.540.320.580.510.45
R00.290.710.580.530.320.710.710.58
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822239523145, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

钻孔应变趋势转折异常效能

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
预报效能参数钻孔体应变仪 钻孔分量应变仪
1号元件(N42°E)2号元件(N87°E)3号元件(N132°E)4号元件(N177°E)剪应变S13剪应变S24面应变Sa
窗长/d3659036590180909090
步长/d71577773030
最佳预报时长/d9012045063042012012030
最佳阈值/STD157.676.1845.3916.6257.2233.0853.07
Rmax0.320.550.610.540.320.580.510.45
R00.290.710.580.530.320.710.710.58
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822306632010, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=EN, label=Tab. 3, caption=

Annual breaking anomalies efficiency of borehole strain

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
预报效能参数钻孔体应变仪 钻孔分量应变仪
1号元件(N42°E)2号元件(N87°E)3号元件(N132°E)4号元件(N177°E)剪应变S13剪应变S24面应变Sa
窗长/d73073012012012060120365
最佳预报时长/d302184236308288268
最佳阈值/STD0.33.80.81.10.71.41.71.6
Rmax0.300.170.180.120.190.150.120.22
R00.290.170.150.180.160.140.120.16
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822382129483, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

钻孔应变破年变异常效能

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
预报效能参数钻孔体应变仪 钻孔分量应变仪
1号元件(N42°E)2号元件(N87°E)3号元件(N132°E)4号元件(N177°E)剪应变S13剪应变S24面应变Sa
窗长/d73073012012012060120365
最佳预报时长/d302184236308288268
最佳阈值/STD0.33.80.81.10.71.41.71.6
Rmax0.300.170.180.120.190.150.120.22
R00.290.170.150.180.160.140.120.16
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822449238348, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=EN, label=Tab. 4, caption=

Rate anomalies performance of borehole strain

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
预报效能参数钻孔体应变仪 钻孔分量应变仪
1号元件(N42°E)2号元件(N87°E)3号元件(N132°E)4号元件(N177°E)剪应变S13剪应变S24面应变Sa
窗长/d9090909090180180180
步长/d9090159090609060
滤波阶数33333333
最佳预报时长/d3875288919376815
最佳阈值/STD2.115.81.31.13.97.51.11.4
Rmax0.080.080.170.140.100.100.130.07
R00.100.060.120.140.090.080.120.07
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822528930125, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

钻孔应变速率异常效能

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
预报效能参数钻孔体应变仪 钻孔分量应变仪
1号元件(N42°E)2号元件(N87°E)3号元件(N132°E)4号元件(N177°E)剪应变S13剪应变S24面应变Sa
窗长/d9090909090180180180
步长/d9090159090609060
滤波阶数33333333
最佳预报时长/d3875288919376815
最佳阈值/STD2.115.81.31.13.97.51.11.4
Rmax0.080.080.170.140.100.100.130.07
R00.100.060.120.140.090.080.120.07
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822608621902, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=EN, label=Tab. 5, caption=

Comparison of R-value scores of borehole strain

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
钻孔应变仪器震级下限趋势转折型异常Rmax破年变型异常Rmax速率型异常Rmax
钻孔体应变 3.0级0.320.30-
3.5级0.320.39-
4.0级0.350.67-
4.5级0.380.67-
5.0级0.380.22-
钻孔分量应变仪1号元件 3.0级0.550.170.08
3.5级0.560.290.12
4.0级0.540.300.25
4.5级0.540.470.39
5.0级0.530.440.30
钻孔分量应变仪2号元件 3.0级0.610.180.17
3.5级0.610.220.30
4.0级0.600.270.60
4.5级0.600.300.62
5.0级0.600.380.62
钻孔分量应变仪3号元件 3.0级0.54-0.14
3.5级0.55-0.28
4.0级0.53-0.31
4.5级0.53-0.50
5.0级0.54-0.50
钻孔分量应变仪4号元件 3.0级0.320.190.10
3.5级0.320.300.31
4.0级0.310.340.33
4.5级0.320.490.42
5.0级-0.44-
钻孔分量应变仪剪应变S13 3.0级-0.150.10
3.5级-0.310.27
4.0级-0.330.27
4.5级-0.520.30
5.0级-0.58-
钻孔分量应变仪剪应变S24 3.0级-0.120.13
3.5级-0.170.28
4.0级-0.250.26
4.5级-0.24-
5.0级-0.34-
钻孔分量应变仪面应变Sa 3.0级-0.160.07
3.5级-0.230.21
4.0级-0.340.23
4.5级-0.61-
5.0级-0.78-
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822679925071, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

钻孔应变不同震级下限R值评分对比

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
钻孔应变仪器震级下限趋势转折型异常Rmax破年变型异常Rmax速率型异常Rmax
钻孔体应变 3.0级0.320.30-
3.5级0.320.39-
4.0级0.350.67-
4.5级0.380.67-
5.0级0.380.22-
钻孔分量应变仪1号元件 3.0级0.550.170.08
3.5级0.560.290.12
4.0级0.540.300.25
4.5级0.540.470.39
5.0级0.530.440.30
钻孔分量应变仪2号元件 3.0级0.610.180.17
3.5级0.610.220.30
4.0级0.600.270.60
4.5级0.600.300.62
5.0级0.600.380.62
钻孔分量应变仪3号元件 3.0级0.54-0.14
3.5级0.55-0.28
4.0级0.53-0.31
4.5级0.53-0.50
5.0级0.54-0.50
钻孔分量应变仪4号元件 3.0级0.320.190.10
3.5级0.320.300.31
4.0级0.310.340.33
4.5级0.320.490.42
5.0级-0.44-
钻孔分量应变仪剪应变S13 3.0级-0.150.10
3.5级-0.310.27
4.0级-0.330.27
4.5级-0.520.30
5.0级-0.58-
钻孔分量应变仪剪应变S24 3.0级-0.120.13
3.5级-0.170.28
4.0级-0.250.26
4.5级-0.24-
5.0级-0.34-
钻孔分量应变仪面应变Sa 3.0级-0.160.07
3.5级-0.230.21
4.0级-0.340.23
4.5级-0.61-
5.0级-0.78-
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822759616848, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=EN, label=Tab. 6, caption=

R-value scores of different magnitude and distance combinations

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
震级分组震级影响范围/km 趋势转折型异常Rmax破年变型异常Rmax速率型异常Rmax最佳监测距离/km
体应变分量应变体应变分量应变体应变分量应变
3.0~3.9级 0~500.180.220.150.120.120.18≤100
50~1000.220.250.180.150.160.22
100~2000.150.180.100.080.080.12
200~3000.080.100.060.050.050.08
4.0~4.9级 0~500.350.400.300.250.250.30≤200
50~1000.420.450.350.300.280.35
100~2000.380.420.320.280.220.30
200~3000.250.300.200.180.150.20
5.0级以上 0~500.620.650.550.500.400.45≤300
50~1000.670.700.600.550.450.50
100~2000.550.600.500.450.350.40
200~3000.400.450.350.300.250.30
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822830920017, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=CN, label=表6, caption=

不同震级与距离组合的R值评分

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
震级分组震级影响范围/km 趋势转折型异常Rmax破年变型异常Rmax速率型异常Rmax最佳监测距离/km
体应变分量应变体应变分量应变体应变分量应变
3.0~3.9级 0~500.180.220.150.120.120.18≤100
50~1000.220.250.180.150.160.22
100~2000.150.180.100.080.080.12
200~3000.080.100.060.050.050.08
4.0~4.9级 0~500.350.400.300.250.250.30≤200
50~1000.420.450.350.300.280.35
100~2000.380.420.320.280.220.30
200~3000.250.300.200.180.150.20
5.0级以上 0~500.620.650.550.500.400.45≤300
50~1000.670.700.600.550.450.50
100~2000.550.600.500.450.350.40
200~3000.400.450.350.300.250.30
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822906417490, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=EN, label=Tab. 7, caption=

Comparison of R-value scores of borehole strain

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
异常提取类型钻孔体应变仪 钻孔分量应变仪
1号元件(N42°E)2号元件(N87°E)3号元件(N132°E)4号元件(N177°E)剪应变S13剪应变S24面应变Sa
趋势转折型异常0.320.550.610.540.32---
破年变型异常0.670.170.18-0.190.150.120.22
速率型异常-0.080.170.140.100.100.130.07
), ArticleFig(id=1322566822986109267, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566815880958193, language=CN, label=表7, caption=

钻孔应变R值评分对比

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异常提取类型钻孔体应变仪 钻孔分量应变仪
1号元件(N42°E)2号元件(N87°E)3号元件(N132°E)4号元件(N177°E)剪应变S13剪应变S24面应变Sa
趋势转折型异常0.320.550.610.540.32---
破年变型异常0.670.170.18-0.190.150.120.22
速率型异常-0.080.170.140.100.100.130.07
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徐州地震台同场地钻孔应变仪器预报效能对比分析
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郝冉 1 , 刘冬冬 2 , 高明智 1 , 张岑 2 , 何斌 2 , 董传磊 2 , 许炳 2
大地测量与地球动力学 | 地球动力学 2026,46(1): 115-122, 130
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大地测量与地球动力学 |地球动力学 2026 , 46 (1) : 115 -122, 130
徐州地震台同场地钻孔应变仪器预报效能对比分析
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郝冉1 , 刘冬冬2, 高明智1, 张岑2, 何斌2, 董传磊2, 许炳2
作者信息
  • 1 宿迁地震监测中心站, 徐州, 221008
  • 2 江苏省地震局, 南京, 210014
作者简介:

郝冉, 工程师, 主要研究方向为地球物理学, E-mail:

Comparison of Forecasting Efficiency of Borehole Strain Instruments at the Same Site of Xuzhou Seismic Station
Ran HAO1 , Dongdong LIU2, Mingzhi GAO1, Cen ZHANG2, Bin HE2, Chuanlei DONG2, Bing XU2
Affiliations
  • 1 Suqian Earthquake Monitoring Center Station, Xuzhou 221008, China
  • 2 Jiangsu Earthquake Agency, Nanjing 210014, China
出版时间: 2026-01-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.01.591
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摘要
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基于徐州地震台2种钻孔应变仪的观测数据，应用R值检验方法对2种仪器记录的趋势转折型异常、破年变型异常及速率型异常的预报效能进行评分计算，系统地对比分析同场地2套钻孔应变仪器的预报效能，明确二者在地震前兆监测中的互补性。结果表明，钻孔体应变仪对趋势转折型异常和破年变型异常的预报效能表现良好，适合捕捉与长期地质构造活动相关的地震前兆异常信号。钻孔分量应变仪在趋势转折型异常和速率型异常的预报中展现出较强的能力，更擅长捕捉地质体受力状态发生变化而产生的趋势转折前兆异常信号，对于区域应力应变快速变化的监测具有较高灵敏性。研究结果揭示了钻孔应变仪器在地震前兆监测中的效能差异，同时给出了二者在地震预报中的应用重点及优化方向。

钻孔应变观测  /  R值检验方法  /  前兆异常  /  预报效能

Based on the observational data of two types of borehole strainmeters at Xuzhou seismic station, we use the R-value test method to calculate and score the forecasting efficiency of trend-breakinganomalies, annual breaking anomalies and rate anomalies recorded by the two instruments. A systematic comparative analysis of the forecasting efficiency of the two borehole strain instruments at the same site is conducted to clarify their complementarity in earthquake precursor monitoring. The results show that the borehole body strainmeter performs well in the forecasting of trend-breaking anomalies and annual breaking anomalies, and is suitable for capturing the earthquake precursor anomaly signals related to long-term geological tectonic activities. The borehole component strainmeter shows a strong ability in the forecasting of trend-breaking anomalies and rate anomalies, and is more adept at capturing the trend-breaking precursor anomaly signals caused by stress state changes of geological body, and has high sensitivity for the monitoring of rapid changes in regional stress and strain. These findings reveal the efficiency differences of borehole strainmeters in earthquake precursor monitoring and provide the application focus and optimization direction of the two types of borehole strainmeters in earthquake forecasting.

borehole strain observation  /  R-value test method  /  precursor anomaly  /  forecasting efficiency
郝冉, 刘冬冬, 高明智, 张岑, 何斌, 董传磊, 许炳. 徐州地震台同场地钻孔应变仪器预报效能对比分析. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2026 , 46 (1) : 115 -122, 130 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.01.591
Ran HAO, Dongdong LIU, Mingzhi GAO, Cen ZHANG, Bin HE, Chuanlei DONG, Bing XU. Comparison of Forecasting Efficiency of Borehole Strain Instruments at the Same Site of Xuzhou Seismic Station[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2026 , 46 (1) : 115 -122, 130 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.01.591
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我国自20世纪70年代开展钻孔应变观测以来，逐步建立起一系列高精度钻孔应变观测站点，至今钻孔应变观测网络已遍布全国多地，覆盖东部地震频发地区及西部地质构造复杂区域，积累了大量的连续观测数据，在地震预测研究方面取得多项重要成果[1-2]。以往学者通过分析钻孔应变短临异常的规律及特点，归纳出共性特征，并以此作为前兆异常判定指标建立异常指标模型[3]，但尚未系统开展同场地钻孔应变仪器预报效能的对比分析，钻孔应变仪器在地震前兆监测中的效能差异有待研究。
我国钻孔应变观测分为钻孔体应变和钻孔分量应变两类。前者将大地应力变化转换为探头下腔内不可压缩硅油受到的压力变化，后者通过探头套筒内顺时针放置的4个元件内径相对变化记录水平方向上的地应力变化[4]。二者观测原理不同，其灵敏度、精度及异常结果也有差异。为发挥各自特性、精准识别异常，分析二者预报效能差异，对地震预测与预报意义重大。钻孔应变观测的预报效能分析可为异常阈值设定、震例分析提供量化依据，也能为钻孔应变监测技术在地震预测中的实际应用提供科学支撑。
1 研究数据概况
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徐州地震台位于郯庐断裂带江苏段西侧，该区地质构造复杂，地震活动相对频繁，以中小地震为主，地震主要集中在郯庐断裂带江苏段西侧及苏鲁交界以北。由于受到断裂带活动的影响，区域地壳应力的积累和释放能够得到有效传递，使得该区地震前兆异常更加明显。
徐州地震台布设有2口钻孔应变观测井：1号测井于2006-12安装TJ-Ⅱ型钻孔体应变仪，探头深60 m，分辨率为10-9，2017年因雷击故障，2019年在原观测井向下钻孔后重新安装，新探头深68 m。2号测井于2007-04安装YRY-4型钻孔分量应变仪，探头深50.1 m，分辨率为10-10。2口井直线距离仅10 m，基岩均为寒武系中统厚层灰岩。研究区历史地震分布及震例选取见图 1。
本研究采用趋势转折法、破年变法和速率变化法3种分析方法，从2套钻孔应变仪器的观测数据中提取关键的异常特征指标，利用徐州地区300 km范围内2008-01—2023-12发生的3级以上地震事件对异常指标进行可靠性验证，其中包含3.0~3.9级地震事件145例、4.0~4.9级地震事件107例、5.0~5.9级地震事件7例，以此系统、全面地对比分析二者的预报效能。
2 异常数据类型及提取方法
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随着钻孔应变观测数据的长期积累与探索应用，许多学者对钻孔应变异常形态进行研究，总结提取异常的共性特征，其中速率型异常可利用差分分析、时频分析方法，破年变型异常可选用时频分析方法，趋势转折型异常可选用线性拟合分析方法[3, 5-7]。
2.1 趋势转折型异常
趋势转折异常是观测数据在长期趋势稳定背景上出现年尺度显著的趋势转折变化，可能反映地下岩石体系的应力重新分布和应力平衡状态的破坏。本文采用线性拟合方法对异常观测点两侧一定窗长的观测数据进行直线拟合(图 2)。
2.2 破年变型异常
破年变异常是排除因季节、温度、气压和降雨量等年变信号后的数据异常，可能反映区域范围内地壳介质闭锁程度，典型的异常表现为时间序列的破周年信号、矢量打结等(图 3)。在对此类异常进行分析时，采取最小二乘法、矩平法、滑动傅里叶法、分段最小二乘法等数学方法寻找观测序列中的模式，通过数据平滑及拟合的方式获取周年信号，当观测数据与实际观测年变之差超过阈值时即为破年变异常。
2.3 速率型异常
速率型异常是指观测数据的变化速率出现显著转变，反映出区域应力应变状态发生显著变化。根据持续时间和变化幅度的不同，异常现象可以表现为加速、扰动、脉冲等多种形态。特别是加速形态，其持续时间可以由数天到数月不等，可提供宝贵的地震前兆信息。本文采用筛选方法分析异常观测点前后两侧趋势转折角度，对变化速率异变进行识别和提取(图 4)。
2.4 震例分析
2023-08-06山东省平原县发生M5.0地震，震源深度10 km，震中距徐州地震台约280 km。本文以该地震作为异常提取的震例，对徐州地震台TJ-Ⅱ型钻孔体应变仪记录到的显著震前异常信号进行分析。地震前5 d，钻孔体应变观测曲线开始出现初始加速变化，应变日变幅由正常观测背景下的42×10-9/d左右突增至132×10-9/d; 地震前1 d，日变幅开始波动扩大，在震后3 d达到峰值(525×10-9/d)，并出现3次振幅大于200×10-9/d的脉冲信号(图 5(a))。差分分析定量揭示了应变加速过程的非线性特征(图 5(b))，其阶段性演化与断层失稳的加速蠕滑-预滑移理论模型高度一致。异常点在08-05前后趋势转折角度α为62°，远超临界阈值(45°)[3]。标准化处理后的转折幅度norm(α)为0.82，表明应力状态发生本质性转变。该异常形态符合速率型异常的定义，即数据变化速率出现显著加速或突变。
通过对钻孔体应变观测系统及周边环境进行检查发现，观测仪器在震前异常信号前后均运行正常，周边环境无较大变化，观测场地附近无地下水抽取活动。对比分析徐州台RTB-2型气象三要素中的降水量，可排除降雨干扰因素(图 5(c))。观测异常与地震前地壳应力调整直接相关，非环境或人为干扰所致。
徐州地震台位于郯庐断裂带西侧，区域构造应力场以NW-SE向挤压为主(主压应力方向为N47°E)，长期构造加载导致闭锁段弹性应变能持续积累。地震前5 d出现的应变加速阶段表明闭锁段达到临界应力状态，当累积应力超过岩石破裂强度时，闭锁段发生局部脆性破裂，释放部分应变能，表现为应变速率非线性加速。地震后3 d出现的剧烈扰动阶段表明地震发生后应力得到释放，并引发局部应力场动态调整，从而出现应变脉冲及应变波动扩大的现象。
本文结合其他震例异常提取结果，系统对比2类钻孔应变仪器的异常响应特征(表 1)。TJ-Ⅱ型钻孔体应变仪在趋势转折型异常中记录到的显著压性应变转为拉张性应变; 相比之下，YRY-4型分量应变仪对远场地震的响应较弱，仅记录到微弱趋势变化。这种差异源于体应变仪的高分辨率(10-9)和长窗长(大于300 d)特性，使其能够有效过滤短周期噪声，捕捉与板块边界应力传递相关的长期构造活动信号。
破年变型异常表现为观测数据打破原有的年变规律，通常与地壳闭锁段的弹性应变能积累有关。TJ-Ⅱ型体应变仪在该类异常中表现优异，R值为0.30。体应变仪通过全局应变监测，能有效识别与地壳闭锁段弹性应变能积累相关的年变异常，高灵敏度和长周期滤波特性使其在破年变型异常中表现突出。
YRY-4型分量应变仪在速率型异常中响应更为敏感，能够反映观测数据的变化速率出现显著加速或突变，适合监测局部应力的快速变化，适用于短临地震前兆捕捉。相较之下，TJ-Ⅱ型钻孔体应变仪对于速率型异常的响应较弱，对快速应力变化的捕捉能力不足。
3 预报效能及其计算结果
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本文采用异常自动提取技术，从地震监测数据中自动提取出典型的地震前兆异常，并进行R值检验[8]。同时求得R0(表征地震自然发生的概率)和Rmax(表征最优预报效能)数值，当Rmax≥R0时认为通过置信水平考验，对应的Rmax值有效，可以用于相应的预报效能评估，进而根据Rmax确定最佳阈值和预报时长。本文选定研究区300 km范围内发生的3级及以上地震事件259例，将其作为评价对象。同时，特别考虑发生在板块或块体边界的地震事件，因为这些区域的应力能更有效地传递，地震前兆异常可能更加明显。
3.1 趋势转折型异常计算结果
通过趋势转折异常效能计算结果(表 2)可以看出，钻孔体应变仪的异常提取需要较长的窗长，这是因为该仪器的分辨率较高(10-9)，能够捕捉较短自振周期的丰富短周期信息，因此需配备长窗长以有效过滤短期波动，可能说明钻孔体应变仪本身更适合捕捉与长期地质构造活动相关的地震前兆信号，从而在长窗长下反映出更明显的地震前兆。
在提取钻孔分量应变仪异常时，为覆盖更广泛的应力异常变化情况，找到预报效能的最优组合，根据仪器具有4个观测元件的特点，将2组剪应变及面应变[9]观测值加入到异常效能计算中。计算结果表明，钻孔分量应变仪4个元件的Rmax数值整体较高，表明该仪器对于趋势转折型异常的响应更为灵敏，能够更多地捕捉到地下应力分布调整或应力平衡状态破坏所引发的地震前兆异常。同时可以发现，4个元件在异常提取中展现出不同的窗长、预报时长、最佳阈值和预报地震数量(图 6)，表明各个元件对地震异常活动的灵敏度存在差异。剪应变与面应变的预报效能表现不佳(Rmax值无效)，原因可能是在进行剪应变和面应变的数据转换计算时会降低其识别趋势转折异常信号的能力。
3.2 破年变型异常计算结果
破年变异常效能计算结果(表 3)表明，钻孔体应变仪在预报破年变异常时更具优势。通过分析阈值发现，二者的最佳阈值较低，表明2套仪器更容易捕捉到微小的异常信号。钻孔分量应变仪对于破年变异常效能表现不佳，可能是因为其对局部变化更加敏感，增加了异常的时间占有率和虚报率，因此R值评分较低。通过分析剪应变与面应变计算结果发现(图 7)，不同类型的应变在破年变异常中的预报效能存在显著差异，面应变的Rmax值(0.22)较高，说明面应变更适合捕捉破年变型异常。
3.3 速率型异常计算结果
通过表 4和图 8可以看出，钻孔分量应变仪预报地震个数较多，表明其对速率型异常的预报能力较强，其中2号元件具备较好的预报效能(Rmax值最大)，结合较短的预报时长(28 d)和较低的最佳阈值(1.3 STD)可知，2号元件能够在一定程度上提早预警潜在的异常情况，是钻孔分量应变仪中综合表现最优的元件。其中，剪应变较面应变更适合预报速率型异常，能更有效捕捉到地震活动前的应变加速过程。
本文在研究速率型异常时发现，根据唐磊等[4]关于近地表应力应变状态的判定与分析可知，理论上当主应力方向与元件方位接近时，元件更容易受到主应力的影响，从而能更敏感地捕捉到地应力的变化。但徐州台钻孔分量应变仪的主压应力方向为N47°E，与1号元件(N42°E)方位最为接近，而1号元件的速率异常预报效能Rmax值在4个元件中最低(表 4)，表明其对速率异常的预报能力最差。综合分析钻孔应力状态分布及预报效能表现认为，尽管1号元件的方位更接近主应力方位，但由于该测点长期处于大幅受压状态，导致1号元件灵敏度下降[10]，从而影响其捕捉速率型异常的能力。相较之下，2号元件既能捕捉到主应力的变化，同时其灵敏度较高，使得2号元件具备最高的预报效能。需要说明的是，1号元件在速率型异常中的低效能与其在破年变型异常中的高效能并不矛盾，这可能是因为对于不同类型的异常，其感应特性有所不同。
4 震级与距离对R值计算结果的影响
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4.1 震级下限对预报效能的影响
本文在同场地钻孔应变预报效能的分析应用中发现，震级下限的选择会直接影响R值计算结果。因此，在评估预报效能时，综合考虑徐州地震台及周边区域的地震活动特点，采用不同的震级下限组合，讨论震级下限对R值计算结果的影响(表 5)。结果表明：1)钻孔体应变及钻孔分量应变在趋势转折型异常中随着震级下限的增加，R值有所波动但变化不大，对震级下限的依赖性较低。2)破年变异常中预报效能随着震级下限的提高略有提升，说明破年变型异常的预报效能对震级下限的依赖性较强。3)钻孔分量应变在速率型异常中随着震级下限的增加，预报效能有所提升，尤其在2号元件表现明显，说明速率型异常中预报效能对震级下限的依赖性较强。综上所述，震级下限的选取对R值计算结果的影响取决于异常类型。对于趋势转折型异常，R值对震级下限的依赖性较低，而在破年变型和速率型异常中，R值随着震级下限的提高而显著提升。因此，在对地震预报效能进行评估时，应根据异常类型选择合适的震级下限，以提高预报效率。
4.2 震级与距离对预报效能的影响
地震前兆异常信号强度和影响范围与震级密切相关。一般来说，震级越大，地震前兆信号的传播范围越广，异常信号的强度也越显著。因此，在地震前兆监测中，考虑不同震级地震的影响范围对于提高预报效能具有重要意义。然而，目前研究多集中于固定范围内的地震事件分析，缺乏对不同震级地震影响范围差异的系统性探讨。本文在徐州地震台研究基础上，进一步分析不同震级地震在不同范围内的前兆异常特征，作为一种优化地震预报效能评估的尝试。
为深入研究不同震级地震的影响范围差异，本文在原有研究基础上，以徐州地震台为中心，划分多个同心圆区域，分别对应不同震级地震的潜在影响范围(表 6)。具体划分如下：3.0~3.9级地震，研究范围设定为100 km以内；4.0~4.9级地震，研究范围设定为200 km以内；5.0级及以上地震，研究范围设定为300 km以内。通过对比不同震级地震在对应范围内的前兆异常特征，分析其在趋势转折型、破年变型和速率型异常中的表现，并计算不同范围内的R值评分，进而确定不同震级地震的最佳监测范围。
不同震级与距离组合的R值评分结果表明，趋势转折型异常对震级与震中距离的依赖性较低，R值随震级与距离变化波动较小，适用于广域、长期的地应力监测；破年变型异常对震级的依赖性较强，R值随震级提升显著增加；速率型异常对距离的依赖性较强，R值随距离增加显著下降，适用于近距离、短临地震前兆监测。
5 钻孔应变预报效能对比分析
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本文利用徐州台同场地2套钻孔应变仪器，针对前兆异常响应差异的现象，根据3种异常计算方法对比分析2套钻孔应变仪器的预报效能结果，并结合仪器观测原理及异常响应特征，研究2种仪器的预报效能(表 7)。结果表明：1)对比3种异常的预报效能结果发现，趋势转折型异常的R值整体更高，说明2套钻孔应变仪更适用于预报趋势转折型异常。2)在破年变型异常的预报效能指标中，同场地2套仪器展现出不同的预报能力，钻孔体应变仪具有较高的R值(0.67)，表明其预报破年变异常更为可靠。钻孔分量应变仪的R值普遍较低，这可能是因为其对局部应力变化更加敏感，受局部附加应力影响更大，增加了异常的时间占有率和虚报率，使得R值普遍较低。3)在速率型异常预报中，钻孔分量应变仪具有更强的预报能力，尤其是2号元件的R值相对较高，是监测速率型异常的首选工具。
6 结语
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本文采用R值检验法对徐州地震台同场地2套钻孔应变仪对不同类型异常的预报效能进行系统对比分析。结果表明，钻孔体应变仪在趋势转折型和破年变型异常预报中表现良好，R值分别达0.32和0.67，擅长长期、大范围地应力监测，适用于长期、广域地震趋势分析。而钻孔分量应变仪在趋势转折型异常预报中表现更优，尤其2号元件在速率型异常预报中能力突出，对快速的应力变化具有高灵敏度。此外，剪应变适合预报速率型异常，面应变则更适合预报破年变型异常。
进一步分析发现，趋势转折型异常的R值计算对震级下限依赖性较低，适用于广域、长期地应力监测；破年变型和速率型异常的R值计算中，预报效能随震级下限的提高而显著提升，评估时可适当提高震级下限；速率型异常对震中距离依赖性强，适合近距离、短临地震前兆监测。
通过对比分析，明确了2种钻孔应变仪器在地震预报中的应用重点：钻孔体应变仪凭借其在大规模应力变化监测中的优势，适用于大范围地应力监测和早期地震活动趋势预测；钻孔分量应变仪则在捕捉局部短临地震前兆异常方面更具优势。本研究的预报效能对比分析，不仅加深了对2种钻孔应变仪器在地震预报中作用的理解，而且为地震监测提供了更全面的科学依据，有助于优化地震监测策略，提高地震预测的准确性。
基金
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  • 中国地震局“三结合”课题(CEA-SJH-202502004)
  • 江苏省地震局科学基金(202413)
文献
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2026年第46卷第1期
35
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引用本文
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doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.01.591
  • 接收时间：2025-01-02
  • 首发时间：2026-10-29
  • 出版时间：2026-01-15
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  • 收稿日期：2025-01-02
基金
中国地震局“三结合”课题(CEA-SJH-202502004)
江苏省地震局科学基金(202413)
作者信息
    1 宿迁地震监测中心站, 徐州, 221008
    2 江苏省地震局, 南京, 210014
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
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