大地测量与地球动力学

上界面深度/km	0	3	14	25	34	71
P波速度/km·s^-1	4.5	5.8	6.3	6.5	7.8	8.0

上界面深度/km	0	3	14	25	34	71
P波速度/km·s^-1	4.5	5.8	6.3	6.5	7.8	8.0

基于机器学习的阿鲁科尔沁旗M_S4.7地震发震构造研究

裴东洋 ¹ , 张帆 ¹^,* , 李娟 ¹ , 王禄军 ¹ , 王磊 ¹ , 崔丰智 ¹ , 白少奇 ¹

大地测量与地球动力学 | 地震地质 2025,45(5): 470-476

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大地测量与地球动力学 |地震地质 2025 , 45 (5) : 470 -476

基于机器学习的阿鲁科尔沁旗M_S4.7地震发震构造研究

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裴东洋¹, 张帆¹^,*, 李娟¹, 王禄军¹, 王磊¹, 崔丰智¹, 白少奇¹

作者信息

1 内蒙古自治区地震局, 呼和浩特市哲里木路80号, 010010

通讯作者:

张帆, 高级工程师, 主要从事地震预测研究, E-mail: spacelessness@163.com

ZHANG Fan, senior engineer, majorsin earthquake prediction, E-mail: spacelessness@163.com

作者简介:

裴东洋, 工程师, 主要从事地震预测研究, E-mail: pdy265@sina.com

A Study on the Seismogenic Structure of M_S4.7 Earthquake in Ar Horqin Banner Based on Machine Learning

Dongyang PEI¹, Fan ZHANG¹^,*, Juan LI¹, Lujun WANG¹, Lei WANG¹, Fengzhi CUI¹, Shaoqi BAI¹

Affiliations

1 Earthquake Agency of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, 80 Jirem Road, Hohhot 010010, China

PEI Dongyang, engineer, majorsin earthquake prediction, E-mail: pdy265@sina.com

出版时间: 2025-05-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.05.260

文章导航

摘要

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基于2021-10-15阿鲁科尔沁旗M_S4.7地震震后3个月的连续波形资料, 利用机器学习方法进行震相到时拾取和震相关联。初步构建的机器学习地震目录中包含386个地震事件, 是同时段内蒙古台网人工目录地震事件数量的17倍。然后利用事件波形中P/S波震相到时信息, 采用双差定位方法对上述余震事件进行精定位, 研究该次地震发震构造。结果表明, 阿鲁科尔沁旗M_S4.7地震的余震事件有近NW向和近NEE向2个主要的展布方向, 分布在主震周围1~5 km范围内。根据重定位结果并结合地貌上的线性构造推测, 此处存在未探明的隐伏断层, 本次4.7级地震及其余震的分布主要受近NW向隐伏断层和近NEE向构造控制。

关键词

阿鲁科尔沁旗M_S4.7地震 / 机器学习 / 双差定位 / 发震构造

Abstract

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Based on continuous waveform data from the M_S4.7 earthquake in Ar Horqin Banner on October 15, 2021, for three months post-earthquake, machine learning methods were utilized for picking earthquake phases and associating them. The preliminary machine learning-based earthquake catalog constructed includes 386 seismic events, which is 17 times the number of events in the manual catalog of the Inner Mongolia seismic network for the same period. Subsequently, using the P/S phase arrival time information from the event waveforms, a double-difference location method was applied to precisely locate the aforementioned aftershocks and study the seismogenic structure of the earthquake. The results indicate that the aftershocks of the M_S4.7 earthquake in Ar Horqin Banner have two main directions of distribution, nearly NW and nearly NEE, within a 1-5 km range around the mainshock. Based on the relocation results and combined with linear geological structures on the topography, it is suggested that there exists an unidentified hidden faults. The distribution of the 4.7 magnitude earthquake and its aftershocks is primarily controlled by the nearly NW-oriented hidden faults and the nearly NEE-oriented structures.

Key words

Ar Horqin Banner M_S4.7 earthquake / machine learning / double-difference location / seismogenic structure

引用本文

裴东洋, 张帆, 李娟, 王禄军, 王磊, 崔丰智, 白少奇. 基于机器学习的阿鲁科尔沁旗M_S4.7地震发震构造研究. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2025 , 45 (5) : 470 -476 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.05.260

Dongyang PEI, Fan ZHANG, Juan LI, Lujun WANG, Lei WANG, Fengzhi CUI, Shaoqi BAI. A Study on the Seismogenic Structure of M_S4.7 Earthquake in Ar Horqin Banner Based on Machine Learning[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2025 , 45 (5) : 470 -476 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.05.260

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2021-10-15内蒙古自治区赤峰市阿鲁科尔沁旗(44.20°N，120.24°E)发生4.7级地震，震源深度15 km。内蒙古测震台网的记录显示，余震活动主要集中在震后3个月内，共发生M_L≥1.0可定位余震20次，其中M_L1.0~1.9地震2次，M_L2.0~2.9地震14次，M_L3.0~3.9地震4次，最大余震是发生在震后23 min的M_L3.5地震。主震和最大余震震级差为1.8，根据蒋海昆等^[1]对于中国大陆中强地震序列的分类，属于主震-余震型序列。震中周边地震监测能力有限，100 km范围内仅有天山(TIS)和鲁北(LUB)2个固定地震台，内蒙古测震台网记录到的可定位余震事件数量较少，序列的初始定位结果并不能准确反映本次地震的发震构造。目前对本次地震发震构造的研究还较少，李娟等^[2]认为本次地震主震的震源机制解为以走滑性质为主兼具正断性质，根据区域应力方向和性质推测，该处存在NNW向隐伏断裂。阿鲁科尔沁旗地区2003年曾发生过M_S5.9地震，震中距本次地震约42.9 km。众多学者基于震源机制解、余震分布和震害调查的结果认为，M_S5.9地震的发震构造为一条NW向的未探明隐伏断裂^[3-4]，命名为水泉子沟-天山口断裂^[5]或水泉子沟断裂^[6]。以上研究结果对该地区中强地震的发震构造认识并不一致，且与该区域主要构造沿近EW向、NNE向展布的格局存在较大差异。考虑到该地区中强地震的发震构造相对复杂，因此有必要对阿鲁科尔沁旗M_S4.7地震序列的发震构造进行深入研究。

发震构造的判定是地震发生后重要的研究内容之一，中强地震发生后通过分析余震的空间分布情况，可以获得发震断层的走向、倾向等参数^[7]。本文采用机器学习方法从内蒙古测震台网记录到的连续波形中拾取震相信息并进行震相关联，对台网记录到的余震目录进行补充。然后利用双差定位方法对完善后的阿鲁科尔沁旗M_S4.7地震序列进行重定位，以获取更为精确的震源参数，结合区域地质构造研究的结果对本次地震的发震构造进行进一步研究。

1 区域地质构造和历史地震活动情况

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阿鲁科尔沁旗位于大兴安岭中南部，是构造薄弱的位置^[8]。阿鲁科尔沁旗及周边地区主要发育NNE向和近EW向2组断裂带。NNE向断裂带自西向东有白音温都尔-巴彦花断裂、大兴安岭主脊断裂、甘珠尔庙-乌兰浩特断裂带、老哈河断裂和嫩江-八里罕断裂带；近EW向断裂带主要有西拉木伦河断裂、西辽河断裂和养牧畜河断裂。研究区主要的5级以上历史地震均发生在这2组断裂带周围(图1)。此外，研究人员通过遥感影像解译结合野外地质地貌调查的结果认为，在2003年阿鲁科尔沁旗M_S5.9地震震中附近存在一条较短的NW向正断层^[2-4]，命名为水泉子沟-天山口断裂^[5]或水泉子沟断裂^[6]。根据区域构造位置和断裂系统分布情况可知，研究区主要的构造展布方向为近EW向，次要的构造展布方向为NNE向。断层性质显示研究区主要为挤压环境。

有历史记录以来，研究区共发生7次5级以上地震，其中震级最大的是1940年库伦旗西6.0级地震和1942年内蒙古通辽一带6.0级地震，时间最近的是2013年科尔沁左翼后旗5.3级地震，距离本次4.7级地震最近的是2003年阿鲁科尔沁旗5.9级地震，约42.9 km(图1)。

2 数据处理

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2.1 震相拾取

对各种类型的机器学习模型的震相拾取性能和跨研究区迁移能力的初步的测试和分析表明，PhaseNet模型的综合性能要优于EQTransformer^[9-10]。本文基于2021年阿鲁科尔沁旗M_S4.7地震后内蒙古测震台网记录到的连续波形，对2021-10-15—2022-01-31之间采样率为100 Hz的连续波形记录使用PhaseNet模型进行P/S震相到时拾取。考虑到PhaseNet模型具有较好的泛化能力^[11-12]，此步骤直接使用Zhu等^[13]已训练好的模型进行到时拾取，最终拾取到个150 949个P波震相和127 589个S波震相。图2为P波(图2(a))和S波(图2(b))拾取结果的准确度分布，其中P波的准确度平均值为0.76，标准差为0.21；S波的准确度平均值为0.59，标准差为0.17。震相拾取的准确度反映了模型对于地震事件类型的初步判断，本次拾取结果分布相对集中，能够满足后续震相关联和地震目录构建的需求。

2.2 震相关联和地震事件初步定位

本文基于Zhu等^[14]构建的基于密度(DBSCAN)和混合高斯分布(Gaussian mixture)的GaMMA模型进行震相关联和地震事件初步定位。该模型的优势在于能够同时使用震相到时和振幅信息实现震相关联和初步定位^[14-16]。获得的初步目录中共有386个地震事件，关联到75 992条P波震相、51 163条S波震相，走时曲线如图3所示。GaMMA方法关联到的震相数量较PhaseNet模型拾取到的数量略少，这是由于关联过程中剔除了准确度低于0.5的震相到时，还剔除了部分干扰和非天然地震事件。与人工目录对比，内蒙古测震台网记录到的阿鲁科尔沁旗4.7级地震序列的21条地震事件均被机器学习模型识别到，识别率为100%，其发震时间与人工目录的间隔平均为0.02 s。机器学习模型构建的地震目录中还有365个人工目录未识别到的小震事件，总体数量是同时段人工目录的17倍(图4)。

2.3 余震重定位

基于机器学习模型拾取的到时信息，利用双差层析成像(tomoDD)方法^[17]对GaMMA构建的机器学习目录进行重定位。一维速度模型使用卢造勋等^[18]在中朝地台东北缘进行层析成像使用的初始速度模型(表1)。使用L-curve方法^[19]确定反演过程中的阻尼参数。重定位后得到149个事件，纬度、经度和深度方向的平均定位误差分别为0.17 km、0.47 km和0.2 km，走时残差为0.18 s(图5)。重新定位后走时残差明显减小，震源相对位置的定位精度有较大提高(图6)。

3 结果分析

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3.1 地震目录对比

主震后3个月内，本文构建的机器学习目录共有149个事件，相比台网人工目录数量大幅度提升，且人工记录到的21个事件均包含在机器学习目录中。重定位结果在纬度、经度和深度方向的平均定位误差分别为0.17 km、0.47 km和0.2 km，定位精度明显提高。台网人工目录由于记录到的余震事件较少，没有表现出明显的分布规律，本文构建的目录震中分布更加集中，呈现线性分布的特征(图7)。

3.2 地震序列的时空分布特征

图4中蓝色柱状图为本文构建的目录中地震事件频次随时间的分布情况，图7为震级随时间的分布情况。对比分析机器学习模型构建的地震目录可知，本次阿鲁科尔沁旗4.7级地震序列衰减较快，余震活动频次总体呈现快速下降的趋势，并伴随有4次明显的小幅波动，分别出现在11-02、12-08、12-26和01-12。本文构建的目录中，M_L1.0~1.9余震26次，M_L2.0~2.5余震104次，M_L2.6~2.9余震16次，M_L3.0~3.9余震2次，余震震级集中在M_L2.0~2.5区间，最大余震震级为M_L3.5，与台网人工目录一致。

重定位后的结果显示，本文构建的目录事件在主震附近呈现明显的集中分布特征，在主震西侧巴林左旗附近、主震北东侧扎鲁特旗附近及主震南东侧开鲁县附近均呈现离散分布特征(图6)。这些离散分布的地震可能是由PhaseNet和GaMMA拾取并关联到的周边小震活动事件，不是本次阿鲁科尔沁旗4.7级地震的主震。重定位后的主震周边的地震事件在2个方向上呈现明显的线性分布的特征。在主震北西侧余震震中主要表现为近NW向线性展布，拟合得到其走向为315°；在主震南东侧余震震中表现为近NEE向线性展布，拟合得到其走向为75°。垂直于余震震中走向布置4条深度剖面(图8、9)，用来分析余震的空间展布特征。AA′剖面显示，主震北西侧发震断层倾向NE，拟合得到倾角约32°；BB′剖面显示，主震南东侧发震断层倾向SE，拟合得到倾角约43°；CC′剖面上余震分布较杂乱，总体上倾向SE，但有多个分支；沿主震南东侧发震断层走向布置的DD′剖面显示，余震分布可分为2段，剖面上0~35 km左右位置的余震深度较浅，在5~10 km范围，剖面上35~100 km位置的余震深度范围在15~20 km。

3.3 发震构造分析

余震有近NW向和近NEE向2个优势分布方向。其中近NW向余震分布带的位置在地形地貌上属于沟谷位置，有明显的线性构造。从余震的空间分布特征和地貌上的线性构造推测，此处存在未探明的隐伏断层，走向约315°、倾向NE、倾角约32°。近NEE向余震分布带处于大兴安岭隆起带向松辽盆地过渡的位置，其产状与上述2个构造单元的地质分界线嫩江-八里罕断裂接近，属于构造较为破碎的位置，余震的分布形态可能受构造控制。因此本次地震的余震分布可能受到2条断层控制：一条为近NW向的隐伏断裂，另一条可能为嫩江-八里罕断裂末端的延伸，主震位于近NW向的隐伏断裂上。

4 结语

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1) 本文使用机器学习模型PhaseNet对阿鲁科尔沁旗4.7级地震震后3个月的连续波形记录进行震相拾取，使用GaMMA模型对拾取到的震相到时进行震相关联和初步定位，用tomoDD方法进行重定位以构建高精度的地震序列目录。结果表明，在震中周边固定测震台站较稀疏的情况下，上述工作流程仍能构建较为完整的序列目录。本次工作构建的机器学习高精度余震目录中共有149个事件，台网记录到的21个事件均包含在机器学习目录中。M_L1.0~1.9震级档台网的人工目录仅有1条记录，而本文构建的目录有26条，数量更加丰富，有效弥补了内蒙古测震台网对本次地震序列的记录。

2) 发震构造分析。重定位的结果显示，阿鲁科尔沁旗4.7级地震的余震有2条主要展布方向：一条为近NW向展布，结合地貌上的线性构造推测，此处存在未探明的隐伏断层；另一条为近NEE向展布，根据产状认为，其可能受嫩江-八里罕断裂末端延伸断裂的控制。主震处于近NW向的隐伏断裂上。阿鲁科尔沁旗区域构造上属于大兴安岭隆起带向松辽盆地的过渡带，断裂系统较发育，主要有近NE向和近EW向2种构造系统。本次4.7级地震及其余震的分布主要受近NW向和近NEE向构造控制，这个结果与区域构造不符合。基于地质、地震和地貌上的特征综合分析，认为该区域除近NE向和近EW向2种断裂系统外还有近NW向的小规模断裂构造，中等强度的地震分布更容易受到此种方向断裂的控制。2003年阿鲁科尔沁旗5.9级地震同样是受到NW向的水泉子沟-天山口断裂控制，进一步表明该地区地貌上NW向的线性构造可能存在隐伏断层，容易发生中等强度地震。

3) 本次地震发生后，在震中周边并没有进行流动台阵加密观测，本次工作仅依靠震中周边100 km内的2个固定台站，使用机器学习方法和双差定位构建高精度余震目录，虽然大幅度完善了台网人工记录目录的完整性并初步分析了发震构造，但是对于推测的2条断层的形态还缺乏高精度的刻画。特别是近NEE向展布的断层与嫩江-八里罕断裂的具体空间关系还有待进一步分析。由此可见，该地区中等地震发生后，用流动台阵进行加密观测并用机器学习方法构建高精度余震目录，对于厘清发震断层和刻画发震断层的形态有重要意义。

基金

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内蒙古自治区地震局局长基金(2023MS05)
中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2024010104)
中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2022010128)

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2025年第45卷第5期

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文章信息

doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.05.260

接收时间：2024-05-30
首发时间：2026-10-30
出版时间：2025-05-15

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出版历史

收稿日期：2024-05-30

基金

Director Fund of Earthquake Agency of Inner Mongolia Autonoumous Region(2023MS05)

内蒙古自治区地震局局长基金(2023MS05)

The Earthquake Tracking Task of CEA(2024010104)

中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2024010104)

The Earthquake Tracking Task of CEA(2022010128)

中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2022010128)

作者信息

1 内蒙古自治区地震局, 呼和浩特市哲里木路80号, 010010

通讯作者:

张帆, 高级工程师, 主要从事地震预测研究, E-mail: spacelessness@163.com

ZHANG Fan, senior engineer, majorsin earthquake prediction, E-mail: spacelessness@163.com

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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/ddcl/CN/10.14075/j.jgg.2024.05.260

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

科 Family	属数 Number of genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)	属 Genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae	2	11	5.26	鹅膏菌属 Amanita	10	4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae	2	12	5.74	丝盖伞属 Inocybe	5	2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae	8	14	6.70	蜡蘑属 Laccaria	5	2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae	3	23	11.00	小皮伞属 Marasmius	6	2.87
				小菇属 Mycena	11	5.26
				光柄菇属 Pluteus	5	2.39
				红菇属 Russula	17	8.13
				栓菌属 Trametes	5	2.39

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