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Article(id=1322959409965572954, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, issueId=1322959347470442879, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.14075/j.jgg.2024.03.142, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1711555200000, receivedDateStr=2024-03-28, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793347702732, onlineDateStr=2026-10-30, pubDate=1739548800000, pubDateStr=2025-02-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793347702732, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793347702732, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793347702732, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322959347470442879, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, year='2025', volume='45', issue='2', pageStart='111', pageEnd='220', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1739548800000', pubDateStr='2025-02-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793347687833, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793347687833, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=208, endPage=214, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322959410116567899, articleId=1322959409965572954, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=EN, title=Abnormal Characteristics of Ground Tilt before M≥7 Earthquakes in North-South Seismic Belt, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Based on the data of ground tilt within 500 to 600 km from the epicentre of Wenchuan M8.0, Yushu M7.1, Lushan M7.0, Jiuzhaigou M7.0 and Maduo M7.4 earthquakes that occurred in the north-south seismic belt since 2000, the anomaly analysis of tidal factors, rate analysis, trend turning method, annual variation method and the change characteristics of azimuth and inclination of ground tilt data before the earthquake are carried out. The results show that the tidal factor exceeds 2 times the mean square deviation anomaly about one year before the 5 M≥7 earthquakes, and the anomaly duration is mostly 1 to 3 months. The rate analysis method is suitable for short-term anomaly index extraction, while the trend turning method and the annual variation method are more suitable for medium-and long-term prediction. The magnitude extracted by the trend turning method and calculated by empirical formula is closer to the actual magnitude. The change of dip angle and azimuth angle is more prone to quasi-synchronous anomalies in places far from the epicenter before the earthquake.As the distance to the epicenter decreases, the number of anomalies diminishes, and most of them are single anomalies in either azimuth angle or dip angle.According to the characteristics of ground tilt anomaly and magnitude prediction at present, it is considered that the entropy of ground tilt amplitude factor at present is mainly over-threshold anomaly, and the anomaly of trend turning extraction is concentrated at the junction of Gansu, Qinghai and Sichuan, and the predicted magnitude is high. The regional stress level at the junction of Gansu, Qinghai and Sichuan is still high after the Jishishan M6.2 earthquake. The distribution characteristics of the azimuth angle and dip angle of the ground tilt are similar to those observed before Wenchuan M8.0 and Lushan M7.0 earthquakes.

, authors=Na LI1, Haiping MA1, Shanyi WU1, Hailing ZHANG1, authorsList=Na LI, Haiping MA, Shanyi WU, Hailing ZHANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

LI Na, engineer, majors in analysis of fixed-point anomalies in geophysical fields, E-mail:

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利用2000年以来南北地震带发生的汶川8.0级、玉树7.1级、芦山7.0级、九寨沟7.0级和玛多7.4级地震震中500~600 km范围内地倾斜资料进行潮汐因子异常分析、速率分析、趋势转折、破年变分析和地倾斜数据震前方位角、倾角变化特征分析, 结果发现, 5个7级及以上地震前1 a左右均出现潮汐因子超2倍均方差异常, 持续时间多为1~3个月。速率分析适用于短期异常指标的提取, 而趋势转折和破年变分析提取异常的指标更适用于中长期预测, 利用趋势转折提取的异常指标和通过经验公式计算的震级更接近实际震级。倾角和方位角变化在震前距离震中较远的地方更易出现准同步异常, 越靠近震中, 异常数量越少, 且多为方位角或倾角单项异常。根据地倾斜异常特征和震级预测认为, 现阶段地倾斜振幅因子熵以超阈值异常为主, 趋势转折提取的异常集中分布在甘青川交界, 预测震级偏高, 积石山6.2级地震后甘青川交界区域应力水平仍较高, 地倾斜方位角及倾角的分布特征与汶川8.0级和芦山7.0级地震前相似。

, authors=李娜1, 马海萍1, 武善艺1, 张海玲1, authorsList=李娜, 马海萍, 武善艺, 张海玲, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

李娜, 工程师, 主要从事地球物理场定点异常分析研究, E-mail:

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LI Na, engineer, majors in analysis of fixed-point anomalies in geophysical fields, E-mail:

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李娜, 工程师, 主要从事地球物理场定点异常分析研究, E-mail:

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李娜, 工程师, 主要从事地球物理场定点异常分析研究, E-mail:

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Beijing: Institute of Geophysics, CEA, 2000, articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1322959416206697360, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, awardId=2022G01, language=EN, fundingSource=Seismological Science and Technology Development Fund of Gansu Earthquake Agency(2022G01), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1322959416290583441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, awardId=2022G01, language=CN, fundingSource=甘肃省地震局地震科技发展基金(2022G01), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1322959416366080914, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, awardId=2023010207, language=EN, fundingSource=The Earthquake Tracking Task of CEA(2023010207), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1322959416479327123, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, awardId=2023010207, language=CN, fundingSource=中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2023010207), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1322959411391636323, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1322959411400024932, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, companyId=1322959411391636323, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1 Gansu Earthquake Agency, 450 West-Donggang Road, Lanzhou 730000, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1322959411408413541, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, companyId=1322959411391636323, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1 甘肃省地震局, 兰州市东岗西路450号, 730000)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1322959414835159938, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, language=EN, label=Fig. 1, caption=Distribution of stations with tidal factor exceeding the threshold at the end of 2023, figureFileSmall=f29awUtMt27mFJw6eHWyUg==, figureFileBig=AKEZd4J69W6GK7vb7x1ESg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322959414952600451, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, language=CN, label=图1, caption=2023年底仍存在潮汐因子超阈值异常台站分布, figureFileSmall=f29awUtMt27mFJw6eHWyUg==, figureFileBig=AKEZd4J69W6GK7vb7x1ESg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322959415200064388, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, language=EN, label=Fig. 2, caption=Distribution of abnormal tilt stations scanned by trend turning method and annual variation method, figureFileSmall=YNMzjCg9drThnQTtq/Z7rQ==, figureFileBig=bZS8m/B3OMwcFeNhmflCEQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322959415275561861, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, language=CN, label=图2, caption=趋势转折、破年变分析扫描现阶段地倾斜异常台站分布, figureFileSmall=YNMzjCg9drThnQTtq/Z7rQ==, figureFileBig=bZS8m/B3OMwcFeNhmflCEQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322959415351059334, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, language=EN, label=Fig. 3, caption=Distribution of stations with abnormal pretilt angles and azimuth angles and distribution of stations with abnormal persistence at the end of 2023 of M≥7 earthquakes, figureFileSmall=3cDyl958u0j/McHjy868Uw==, figureFileBig=oYcZEfguQxkjGKZqiiuq5g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322959415430751111, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, language=CN, label=图3, caption=7级及以上地震前倾角、方位角异常台站分布及2023年底异常持续台站分布, figureFileSmall=3cDyl958u0j/McHjy868Uw==, figureFileBig=oYcZEfguQxkjGKZqiiuq5g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322959415502054280, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, language=EN, label=Tab. 1, caption=

Classification and statistics for inclination data within 500 to 600 km from the epicentre of earthquakes with M≥7

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
地震地倾斜资料观测数量/项震前有观测资料项数/总项
垂直摆 水平摆 钻孔倾斜 水管仪
汶川8.0 36 18 16 38 53/108
玉树7.1 2 4 4 0 8/10
芦山7.0 26 6 6 23 40/61
九寨沟7.0 26 6 20 35 74/85
玛多7.4 6 8 8 2 24/24
), ArticleFig(id=1322959415581746057, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

7级及以上地震震中距500~600 km范围内地倾斜资料分类统计

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
地震地倾斜资料观测数量/项震前有观测资料项数/总项
垂直摆 水平摆 钻孔倾斜 水管仪
汶川8.0 36 18 16 38 53/108
玉树7.1 2 4 4 0 8/10
芦山7.0 26 6 6 23 40/61
九寨沟7.0 26 6 20 35 74/85
玛多7.4 6 8 8 2 24/24
), ArticleFig(id=1322959415661437834, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, language=EN, label=Tab. 2, caption=

Statistics of the above-threshold anomaly of the tilt tide factor and the interval between earthquakes before earthquakes with M≥ 7

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
地震 地倾斜类型 台站 震中距/km EW分量异常发震间隔/月 NS分量异常发震间隔/月 地震 地倾斜类型 台站 震中距/km EW分量异常发震间隔/月 NS分量异常发震间隔/月
玉树7.1水平摆格尔木水平摆 400.58 - 16九寨沟7.0垂直摆乾县垂直摆 466.44 - 31
玉树水平摆 55.28 - 9汉中垂直摆 334.69 43 31
钻孔倾斜德令哈钻孔倾斜 488.37 1 14八渡垂直摆 355.62 20 21
汶川8.0垂直摆安康垂直摆 565.24 9 1武都垂直摆 137.98 10 12
汉中垂直摆 416.42 7 7 泾源垂直摆 372.06 7 15
泾源垂直摆 574.51 9 9 姑咱垂直摆 355.89 43 8
姑咱垂直摆 148.90 1 - 松潘垂直摆 63.63 19 18
南山垂直摆 517.91 3 -天全垂直摆 346.12 11 33
乡城垂直摆 409.29 - 2水平摆兰州水平摆 330.00 1 1
小庙垂直摆 354.81 - 5 乐都水平摆 394.38 8 20
水平摆兰州水平摆 571.35 5 4钻孔倾斜 两水钻孔倾斜 130.76 13 -
丽江水平摆 545.81 2 - 临夏钻孔倾斜 279.70 11 11
钻孔倾斜 兰州钻孔倾斜 567.17 - 5 兰州钻孔倾斜 325.80 14 23
甘孜钻孔倾斜 331.59 - 1 武山钻孔倾斜 170.73 11 30
水管仪西安水管仪 543.47 9 6 寺滩钻孔倾斜 458.81 30 30
宝鸡水管仪 522.61 7 8 横梁钻孔倾斜 465.01 30 12
兰州水管仪 571.35 8 - 英鸽钻孔倾斜 422.09 33 23
宕昌水管仪 351.67 8 - 湟源钻孔倾斜 445.02 13 17
泾源水管仪 574.51 10 - 海原钻孔倾斜 425.25 22 30
小庙水管仪 354.81 8 9 甘孜钻孔倾斜 364.83 8 -
丽江水管仪 545.81 7 8 水管仪八渡水管仪 355.62 20 30
芦山7.0垂直摆汉中垂直摆 498.95 2 15 乾县水管仪 466.44 30 15
姑咱垂直摆 79.13 22 16 汉中水管仪 334.69 20 20
南山垂直摆 424.55 14 2 宝鸡水管仪 359.88 6 3
松潘垂直摆 268.65 - 9 宁强水管仪 257.35 5 11
乡城垂直摆 334.18 38 2 武都水管仪 137.98 - 20
小庙垂直摆 261.25 26 38 宕昌水管仪 128.69 23 7
水平摆丽江水平摆 454.09 7 7 白银水管仪 390.94 1 1
昭通水平摆 324.58 15 15 兰州水管倾斜 330.00 22 30
钻孔倾斜两水钻孔倾斜 400.43 17 37泾源水管仪 372.06 38 41
武山钻孔倾斜 464.64 2 -姑咱水管仪 355.89 1 -
甘孜钻孔倾斜 329.27 29 26 天全水管仪 346.12 8 8
水管倾斜汉中水管仪 498.95 2 19 玛多7.4垂直摆格尔木垂直摆 380.24 3 -
宕昌水管仪 444.53 10 2乐都垂直摆 451.47 5 17
南山水管仪 424.55 14 20 门源垂直摆倾斜 449.23 23 25
小庙水管仪 261.25 8 2 水平摆 格尔木水平摆 380.24 5 4
永胜水管倾斜 444.13 14 9 乐都水平摆 451.47 17 17
丽江水管仪 454.09 26 33 玉树水平摆 185.27 15 15
钻孔倾斜 临夏钻孔倾斜 484.96 17 5
德令哈钻孔倾斜 344.73 16 -
昭通水管仪 324.58 33 27 水管倾斜 同仁水管倾斜 370.84 - 18
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7级以上地震前地倾斜潮汐因子超阈值异常及发震间隔统计

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地震 地倾斜类型 台站 震中距/km EW分量异常发震间隔/月 NS分量异常发震间隔/月 地震 地倾斜类型 台站 震中距/km EW分量异常发震间隔/月 NS分量异常发震间隔/月
玉树7.1水平摆格尔木水平摆 400.58 - 16九寨沟7.0垂直摆乾县垂直摆 466.44 - 31
玉树水平摆 55.28 - 9汉中垂直摆 334.69 43 31
钻孔倾斜德令哈钻孔倾斜 488.37 1 14八渡垂直摆 355.62 20 21
汶川8.0垂直摆安康垂直摆 565.24 9 1武都垂直摆 137.98 10 12
汉中垂直摆 416.42 7 7 泾源垂直摆 372.06 7 15
泾源垂直摆 574.51 9 9 姑咱垂直摆 355.89 43 8
姑咱垂直摆 148.90 1 - 松潘垂直摆 63.63 19 18
南山垂直摆 517.91 3 -天全垂直摆 346.12 11 33
乡城垂直摆 409.29 - 2水平摆兰州水平摆 330.00 1 1
小庙垂直摆 354.81 - 5 乐都水平摆 394.38 8 20
水平摆兰州水平摆 571.35 5 4钻孔倾斜 两水钻孔倾斜 130.76 13 -
丽江水平摆 545.81 2 - 临夏钻孔倾斜 279.70 11 11
钻孔倾斜 兰州钻孔倾斜 567.17 - 5 兰州钻孔倾斜 325.80 14 23
甘孜钻孔倾斜 331.59 - 1 武山钻孔倾斜 170.73 11 30
水管仪西安水管仪 543.47 9 6 寺滩钻孔倾斜 458.81 30 30
宝鸡水管仪 522.61 7 8 横梁钻孔倾斜 465.01 30 12
兰州水管仪 571.35 8 - 英鸽钻孔倾斜 422.09 33 23
宕昌水管仪 351.67 8 - 湟源钻孔倾斜 445.02 13 17
泾源水管仪 574.51 10 - 海原钻孔倾斜 425.25 22 30
小庙水管仪 354.81 8 9 甘孜钻孔倾斜 364.83 8 -
丽江水管仪 545.81 7 8 水管仪八渡水管仪 355.62 20 30
芦山7.0垂直摆汉中垂直摆 498.95 2 15 乾县水管仪 466.44 30 15
姑咱垂直摆 79.13 22 16 汉中水管仪 334.69 20 20
南山垂直摆 424.55 14 2 宝鸡水管仪 359.88 6 3
松潘垂直摆 268.65 - 9 宁强水管仪 257.35 5 11
乡城垂直摆 334.18 38 2 武都水管仪 137.98 - 20
小庙垂直摆 261.25 26 38 宕昌水管仪 128.69 23 7
水平摆丽江水平摆 454.09 7 7 白银水管仪 390.94 1 1
昭通水平摆 324.58 15 15 兰州水管倾斜 330.00 22 30
钻孔倾斜两水钻孔倾斜 400.43 17 37泾源水管仪 372.06 38 41
武山钻孔倾斜 464.64 2 -姑咱水管仪 355.89 1 -
甘孜钻孔倾斜 329.27 29 26 天全水管仪 346.12 8 8
水管倾斜汉中水管仪 498.95 2 19 玛多7.4垂直摆格尔木垂直摆 380.24 3 -
宕昌水管仪 444.53 10 2乐都垂直摆 451.47 5 17
南山水管仪 424.55 14 20 门源垂直摆倾斜 449.23 23 25
小庙水管仪 261.25 8 2 水平摆 格尔木水平摆 380.24 5 4
永胜水管倾斜 444.13 14 9 乐都水平摆 451.47 17 17
丽江水管仪 454.09 26 33 玉树水平摆 185.27 15 15
钻孔倾斜 临夏钻孔倾斜 484.96 17 5
德令哈钻孔倾斜 344.73 16 -
昭通水管仪 324.58 33 27 水管倾斜 同仁水管倾斜 370.84 - 18
), ArticleFig(id=1322959415841792908, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, language=EN, label=Tab. 3, caption=

Anomalous duration extracted by annual variation method and trend turning method to calculate the M≥7 earthquakes

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估计方法 汶川8.0 玉树7.1 芦山7.0 九寨沟7.0 玛多7.4
破年变分析 - - 6.9 6.9 6.9
趋势转折 7.5 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.2
), ArticleFig(id=1322959415925678989, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

破年变分析、趋势转折提取异常持续时间推算7级及以上地震震级

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估计方法 汶川8.0 玉树7.1 芦山7.0 九寨沟7.0 玛多7.4
破年变分析 - - 6.9 6.9 6.9
趋势转折 7.5 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.2
), ArticleFig(id=1322959416017953678, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322959409965572954, language=EN, label=Tab. 4, caption=

Anomalous characteristics of dip angles and azimuth angles of ground tilt observation station before M≥7 earthquakes

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地震 地倾斜类型 异常测项名称 震前异常形态描述 异常开始时间 震中距/km
汶川8.0垂直摆西安垂直摆 方位角快速上升 震前8个月 543
安康垂直摆 方位角快速下降 震前5个月 565
姑咱垂直摆 方位角快速下降 震前8个月 149
马兰山垂直摆 方位角由上升趋势转为下降 震前0.5个月 510
乡城垂直摆 方位角快速上升 震前5个月 409
黔江垂直摆 方位角快速下降，倾角加速上升 震前2个月 540
水平摆兰州水平摆 方位角加速下降后快速转折上升 震前7个月 571
丽江水平摆 方位角快速下降，倾角震前加速上升 震前3个月 546
钻孔倾斜 两水钻孔倾斜 方位角加速上升，倾角加速上升 震前1个月 307
临夏钻孔倾斜 方位角加速下降 震前2个月 520
水管仪 宝鸡水管仪 方位角加速上升，倾角转折加速上升 震前3个月 522
兰州水管仪 方位角突降-突升变化，倾角突升-突降变化(与仪器不稳定有关)，震前倾角加速上升 震前5个月 571
宕昌水管仪 倾角加速下降 震前1个月 352
泾源水管仪 方位角突降-突升 震前5个月 575
丽江水管仪 方位角加速下降 震前0.5个月 546
黔江水管仪 方位角加速下降，倾角快速上升 震前3个月 54
玉树7.1水平摆 玉树水平摆 方位角转折上升 震前3个月 55
钻孔倾斜 甘孜钻孔倾斜 方位角加速上升 震前4个月 371
芦山7.0垂直摆姑咱垂直摆 方位角加速上升 震前4个月 79
马兰山垂直摆 方位角加速上升 震前9个月 417
康定垂直摆 方位角加速上升，倾角年变年变幅减小 震前14.4个月 100
南山垂直摆 方位角上升速率减缓并出现转折下降趋势 震前6个月 425
松潘垂直摆 方位角加速上升后转折下降 震前12个月 269
水平摆丽江水平摆 倾角加速下降 震前5个月 454
昭通水平摆 方位角加速上升，倾角上升速率加快 震前9个月 324
钻孔倾斜 甘孜钻孔倾斜 方位角转折加速下降 震前3个月 329
两水钻孔倾斜 方位角转折下降，倾角转折上升 震前18个月 400
水管仪 宕昌水管仪 方位角由加速上升转平，倾角突升 震前4个月 445
南山水管仪 方位角加速上升 震前3个月 425
小庙台水管仪 方位角、倾角震前突升-突降变化 震前7个月 261
永胜水管仪 方位角转折加速下降，倾角加速上升 震前1个月 444
丽江水管仪 方位角加速下降，倾角转折加速上升 震前2个月 454
九寨沟7.0垂直摆西安垂直摆 方位角加速上升，倾角加速上升 震前3个月 422
泾源垂直摆 倾角由震前2 a加速上升变成震前1 a转平 震前24个月 372
钻孔倾斜 兰州钻孔倾斜 方位角震前2 a出现转折加速下降 震前24个月 326
武山钻孔倾斜 方位角震前1 a加速上升后转平，倾角上升转下降 震前12个月，震前4个月 171
水管仪 甘孜钻孔倾斜 倾角震前加速上升 震前7个月 365
武都水管仪 倾角转折加速下降后转折上升 震前19个月 138
兰州水管仪 方位角加速下降后转平，倾角加速下降后转平，震前1 a转折上升-转折下降 震前36个月，震前12个月 330
宕昌水管仪 方位角突升后转平 震前6个月 129
白银水管仪 方位角、倾角加速上升 震前6个月 391
泾源水管仪 方位角、倾角由上升变为转折下降 震前19个月 372
玛多7.4垂直摆乐都垂直摆 方位角上升速率减缓，倾角加速上升后转平 震前3个月 451
门源垂直摆 方位角震前1 a加速下降 震前12个月 449
水平摆 乐都水平摆 倾角趋势转折上升 震前12个月 451
门源水平摆 倾角转折下降 震前3个月 449
玉树水平摆 方位角震前1 a加速下降后转平，倾角变幅减小 震前12个月 185
钻孔倾斜 临夏钻孔倾斜 方位角震前趋势转折上升，倾角转折下降-转平-上升 震前18个月 485
水管仪 同仁水管仪 方位角趋势转折上升，倾角加速上升 震前3个月 371
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7级及以上地震前地倾斜观测站倾角、方位角异常特征

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地震 地倾斜类型 异常测项名称 震前异常形态描述 异常开始时间 震中距/km
汶川8.0垂直摆西安垂直摆 方位角快速上升 震前8个月 543
安康垂直摆 方位角快速下降 震前5个月 565
姑咱垂直摆 方位角快速下降 震前8个月 149
马兰山垂直摆 方位角由上升趋势转为下降 震前0.5个月 510
乡城垂直摆 方位角快速上升 震前5个月 409
黔江垂直摆 方位角快速下降，倾角加速上升 震前2个月 540
水平摆兰州水平摆 方位角加速下降后快速转折上升 震前7个月 571
丽江水平摆 方位角快速下降，倾角震前加速上升 震前3个月 546
钻孔倾斜 两水钻孔倾斜 方位角加速上升，倾角加速上升 震前1个月 307
临夏钻孔倾斜 方位角加速下降 震前2个月 520
水管仪 宝鸡水管仪 方位角加速上升，倾角转折加速上升 震前3个月 522
兰州水管仪 方位角突降-突升变化，倾角突升-突降变化(与仪器不稳定有关)，震前倾角加速上升 震前5个月 571
宕昌水管仪 倾角加速下降 震前1个月 352
泾源水管仪 方位角突降-突升 震前5个月 575
丽江水管仪 方位角加速下降 震前0.5个月 546
黔江水管仪 方位角加速下降，倾角快速上升 震前3个月 54
玉树7.1水平摆 玉树水平摆 方位角转折上升 震前3个月 55
钻孔倾斜 甘孜钻孔倾斜 方位角加速上升 震前4个月 371
芦山7.0垂直摆姑咱垂直摆 方位角加速上升 震前4个月 79
马兰山垂直摆 方位角加速上升 震前9个月 417
康定垂直摆 方位角加速上升，倾角年变年变幅减小 震前14.4个月 100
南山垂直摆 方位角上升速率减缓并出现转折下降趋势 震前6个月 425
松潘垂直摆 方位角加速上升后转折下降 震前12个月 269
水平摆丽江水平摆 倾角加速下降 震前5个月 454
昭通水平摆 方位角加速上升，倾角上升速率加快 震前9个月 324
钻孔倾斜 甘孜钻孔倾斜 方位角转折加速下降 震前3个月 329
两水钻孔倾斜 方位角转折下降，倾角转折上升 震前18个月 400
水管仪 宕昌水管仪 方位角由加速上升转平，倾角突升 震前4个月 445
南山水管仪 方位角加速上升 震前3个月 425
小庙台水管仪 方位角、倾角震前突升-突降变化 震前7个月 261
永胜水管仪 方位角转折加速下降，倾角加速上升 震前1个月 444
丽江水管仪 方位角加速下降，倾角转折加速上升 震前2个月 454
九寨沟7.0垂直摆西安垂直摆 方位角加速上升，倾角加速上升 震前3个月 422
泾源垂直摆 倾角由震前2 a加速上升变成震前1 a转平 震前24个月 372
钻孔倾斜 兰州钻孔倾斜 方位角震前2 a出现转折加速下降 震前24个月 326
武山钻孔倾斜 方位角震前1 a加速上升后转平，倾角上升转下降 震前12个月，震前4个月 171
水管仪 甘孜钻孔倾斜 倾角震前加速上升 震前7个月 365
武都水管仪 倾角转折加速下降后转折上升 震前19个月 138
兰州水管仪 方位角加速下降后转平，倾角加速下降后转平，震前1 a转折上升-转折下降 震前36个月，震前12个月 330
宕昌水管仪 方位角突升后转平 震前6个月 129
白银水管仪 方位角、倾角加速上升 震前6个月 391
泾源水管仪 方位角、倾角由上升变为转折下降 震前19个月 372
玛多7.4垂直摆乐都垂直摆 方位角上升速率减缓，倾角加速上升后转平 震前3个月 451
门源垂直摆 方位角震前1 a加速下降 震前12个月 449
水平摆 乐都水平摆 倾角趋势转折上升 震前12个月 451
门源水平摆 倾角转折下降 震前3个月 449
玉树水平摆 方位角震前1 a加速下降后转平，倾角变幅减小 震前12个月 185
钻孔倾斜 临夏钻孔倾斜 方位角震前趋势转折上升，倾角转折下降-转平-上升 震前18个月 485
水管仪 同仁水管仪 方位角趋势转折上升，倾角加速上升 震前3个月 371
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南北地震带7级及以上地震前地倾斜异常特征
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李娜 1 , 马海萍 1 , 武善艺 1 , 张海玲 1
大地测量与地球动力学 | 观测技术 2025,45(2): 208-214
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大地测量与地球动力学 |观测技术 2025 , 45 (2) : 208 -214
南北地震带7级及以上地震前地倾斜异常特征
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李娜1 , 马海萍1, 武善艺1, 张海玲1
作者信息
  • 1 甘肃省地震局, 兰州市东岗西路450号, 730000
作者简介:

李娜, 工程师, 主要从事地球物理场定点异常分析研究, E-mail:

Abnormal Characteristics of Ground Tilt before M≥7 Earthquakes in North-South Seismic Belt
Na LI1 , Haiping MA1, Shanyi WU1, Hailing ZHANG1
Affiliations
  • 1 Gansu Earthquake Agency, 450 West-Donggang Road, Lanzhou 730000, China

    • LI Na, engineer, majors in analysis of fixed-point anomalies in geophysical fields, E-mail:

出版时间: 2025-02-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.03.142
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摘要
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利用2000年以来南北地震带发生的汶川8.0级、玉树7.1级、芦山7.0级、九寨沟7.0级和玛多7.4级地震震中500~600 km范围内地倾斜资料进行潮汐因子异常分析、速率分析、趋势转折、破年变分析和地倾斜数据震前方位角、倾角变化特征分析, 结果发现, 5个7级及以上地震前1 a左右均出现潮汐因子超2倍均方差异常, 持续时间多为1~3个月。速率分析适用于短期异常指标的提取, 而趋势转折和破年变分析提取异常的指标更适用于中长期预测, 利用趋势转折提取的异常指标和通过经验公式计算的震级更接近实际震级。倾角和方位角变化在震前距离震中较远的地方更易出现准同步异常, 越靠近震中, 异常数量越少, 且多为方位角或倾角单项异常。根据地倾斜异常特征和震级预测认为, 现阶段地倾斜振幅因子熵以超阈值异常为主, 趋势转折提取的异常集中分布在甘青川交界, 预测震级偏高, 积石山6.2级地震后甘青川交界区域应力水平仍较高, 地倾斜方位角及倾角的分布特征与汶川8.0级和芦山7.0级地震前相似。

地倾斜  /  7.0级地震  /  积石山6.2级地震  /  异常指标

Based on the data of ground tilt within 500 to 600 km from the epicentre of Wenchuan M8.0, Yushu M7.1, Lushan M7.0, Jiuzhaigou M7.0 and Maduo M7.4 earthquakes that occurred in the north-south seismic belt since 2000, the anomaly analysis of tidal factors, rate analysis, trend turning method, annual variation method and the change characteristics of azimuth and inclination of ground tilt data before the earthquake are carried out. The results show that the tidal factor exceeds 2 times the mean square deviation anomaly about one year before the 5 M≥7 earthquakes, and the anomaly duration is mostly 1 to 3 months. The rate analysis method is suitable for short-term anomaly index extraction, while the trend turning method and the annual variation method are more suitable for medium-and long-term prediction. The magnitude extracted by the trend turning method and calculated by empirical formula is closer to the actual magnitude. The change of dip angle and azimuth angle is more prone to quasi-synchronous anomalies in places far from the epicenter before the earthquake.As the distance to the epicenter decreases, the number of anomalies diminishes, and most of them are single anomalies in either azimuth angle or dip angle.According to the characteristics of ground tilt anomaly and magnitude prediction at present, it is considered that the entropy of ground tilt amplitude factor at present is mainly over-threshold anomaly, and the anomaly of trend turning extraction is concentrated at the junction of Gansu, Qinghai and Sichuan, and the predicted magnitude is high. The regional stress level at the junction of Gansu, Qinghai and Sichuan is still high after the Jishishan M6.2 earthquake. The distribution characteristics of the azimuth angle and dip angle of the ground tilt are similar to those observed before Wenchuan M8.0 and Lushan M7.0 earthquakes.

ground tilt  /  M7.0 earthquake  /  Jishishan M6.2 earthquake  /  abnormal index
李娜, 马海萍, 武善艺, 张海玲. 南北地震带7级及以上地震前地倾斜异常特征. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2025 , 45 (2) : 208 -214 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.03.142
Na LI, Haiping MA, Shanyi WU, Hailing ZHANG. Abnormal Characteristics of Ground Tilt before M≥7 Earthquakes in North-South Seismic Belt[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2025 , 45 (2) : 208 -214 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.03.142
正文
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研究地倾斜与地震关系的方法多样[1-7]，如形态法、拟合预估法等。地倾斜观测手段同样多样，但强震前异常识别较难。部分研究指出，临震时地倾斜异常矢量或指向震中[8]，但异常特征可能不重复。闫伟等[9]研究认为，倾斜场变化反映地震孕育过程，范围广且群体异常多，单台异常不足以预测大震，需以多台共性特征作为预报指标。
本文选取2000—2023年南北地震带发生的7级以上地震震中附近地倾斜观测数据，利用多手段提取地震前异常，并利用Nakai检验对数据进行预处理，同时利用调和分析计算潮汐因子γ值，通过定量化异常指数反映异常程度，研究异常区域特征与地震间的关系[10]，再通过倾角和方位角的变化分析强震在孕育至发生过程中周边地倾斜变化异常特征及远、近场地倾斜变化的迁移规律，为强震预测提供依据。
1 南北地震带7级以上地震震中附近地倾斜观测站基本情况
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2000年以来南北地震带共发生5次7级以上地震，分别为2008-05-12四川汶川8.0级、2010-04-14青海玉树7.1级、2013-04-20四川芦山7.0级、2017-08-08四川九寨沟7.0级及2021-05-22青海玛多7.4级地震，对震中500 km(汶川地震取600 km)范围内的地倾斜观测数据基本情况进行统计，如表1所示。
2 震前潮汐因子变化特征分析
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利用Nakai拟合检验模型计算地倾斜固体潮理论值，再通过调和分析计算地倾斜固体潮观测值，选取波形干扰最小的M2波进行分析，求取观测值和理论值的比值，即可获得潮汐振幅因子γ值。同时，将振幅因子2倍均方差作为阈值，分析震前潮汐因子特征。
玉树7.1级地震前震中附近共有4项地倾斜观测的潮汐因子出现超阈值异常，占比4/8，震前1 a内仅出现2项异常；汶川8.0级地震前，震中附近有28项的潮汐因子出现超阈值异常，占比28/53，且异常均出现在震前1 a内；芦山7.0级地震前，震中附近共有34项的潮汐因子出现超阈值异常，占比34/40，其中震前1 a内共出现13项异常；九寨沟7.0级地震前震中附近共有59项的潮汐因子出现超阈值异常，占比59/74，共23项异常出现在震前1 a；玛多7.4级地震前震中附近共15项的潮汐因子出现超阈值异常，占比15/24，共5项异常出现在震前1 a。各类地倾斜潮汐因子超阈值异常多集中出现在震前6~12个月，EW分量异常多集中分布在震中附近300~500 km范围内，NS分量异常多集中出现在200~400 km范围内，统计结果见表2。
截至2023年底，地倾斜观测资料仍有58项存在超阈值异常，其中EW分量异常27项，NS分量异常31项，部分观测资料甚至出现2次超阈值异常。根据以往5次7级以上地震震例分析发现，超阈值异常占比超过50%，多出现于震前0.5~1 a，持续1~3个月，少数超阈值异常持续时间较长，且地震发生在超阈值异常期间。现存潮汐因子异常观测项分布见图1，超阈值异常主要分布在甘东南、甘宁陕交界及川滇交界地区。超阈值异常结束后有效期为1 a，现阶段自积石山6.2级地震后仍在有效期内的异常共27项，且多集中分布在甘川陕交界及川滇交界，说明区域应力水平仍然较高。
3 震前地倾斜异常特征分析
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针对2000年以来4次7级以上地震震中附近500 km范围内及8级地震震中600 km范围内涉及的台站资料，分别利用速率分析、破年变分析和趋势转折进行异常特征分析，统计利用不同方法进行异常提取并通过效能检验的观测项，再利用异常持续时间和震级经验公式分析其与7级及以上地震的关系。速率分析的预报优势时间多为短期，破年变分析的预报优势时间多为中短期，而趋势转折的预报优势时间多为中长期。
由于资料范围已限定，本文不再考虑震中距的影响，仅研究异常持续时间与地震震级的关系，分别选取分布相对集中的几次7级及以上地震及其震中附近的地倾斜观测资料进行相关性统计。牛安福[11]曾提出中期异常的持续时间与地震震级之间满足公式MS=1.36 logT+3.786，而速率分析提取的指标多为短期异常，因此选取破年变分析和趋势转折计算中期异常，利用异常持续时间推算震级大小，结果见表3。结果显示，趋势转折估算的震级与实际震级更为接近，而破年变分析估算的震级均比实际震级低，可能与破年变分析计算的异常持续时间较趋势转折短有关。汶川8.0级地震前扫描出的几项异常均为短期异常，玉树7.1级地震前并未出现明显异常。根据估算结果可知，趋势转折分析中各地震震前扫描出现的地倾斜异常确与7级及以上地震相关。
将破年变分析和趋势转折的最长预报时间设定为2 a，统计发现，截至目前异常仍在预报有效期内。其中，破年变分析计算的结果中仍有24个测项存在异常，趋势转折中仍有12项存在异常，台站分布情况见图2。虽然2023 -12-18发生积石山
6.2级地震，但根据经验公式估算震级应高于6.2级，因此认为该地区地震危险性并未降低。
4 震前地倾斜资料倾斜角、方位角变化特征
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汶川8.0级地震前震中600 km范围内出现的16个方位角和倾角异常，多以方位角异常为主，且分布在震中400~600 km范围内(图3(a))；玉树7.1级地震震中500 km范围内的地倾斜观测在震前均表现为方位角异常，且异常分布在震中400 km范围内，震前出现2个方位角异常(图3(b))；芦山7.0级地震震中500 km范围内地倾斜观测震前出现14个方位角、倾角异常，且二者大多同步出现，多分布在震中300~500 km范围内(图3(c))；九寨沟7.0级地震震中500 km范围内地倾斜观测在震前出现10个方位角、倾角异
常，多项地倾斜资料出现方位角、倾角同步异常，且分布在震中300~400 km范围内(图3(d))；玛多7.4级地震震中500 km范围内地倾斜观测在震前出现7个方位角、倾角异常，多项方位角、倾角出现同步异常，且分布在震中400~500 km范围内(图3(e))。各观测站异常特征见表4。
根据各地震震前震中500 km范围内地倾斜观测资料的方位角及倾角异常变化形态可知，方位角在震前较长时间的异常多表现为趋势性转折异常，短期异常表现出速率加快或减缓，而倾角异常多以趋势转折为主，少量存在速率异常变化。且对比震中范围内的所有台站，仅在玉树7.1级、芦山7.0级和玛多7.4级地震前出现方位角、倾角异常的台站占比达50%左右，其余地震较少，可能与地倾斜观测资料质量有关。虽然汶川8.0级和九寨沟7.0级地震前倾角、方位角异常占比偏低，但震中附近地倾斜台站数量较多。而玉树7.1级地震震中附近台站分布本就稀疏，但异常占比较高，由此可知异常与台站分布密度无关。另外，根据地倾斜方位角异常的震前出现时间来看，其与震中距的相关性也不大。
截至2023年底，仍有13个地倾斜观测项存在方位角、倾角异常，其中异常持续时间未超过1 a的共有7个，相比以往震例震前地倾斜方位角、倾角的异常分布特征，其地倾斜观测站异常分布与芦山7.0级和汶川8.0级地震前异常分布较为相似，多以倾角异常为主，主要分布在甘川陕交界区域(图3(f))。
5 结语
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通过对2000—2023年发生在南北地震带的7级及以上地震及震中附近地倾斜观测数据进行潮汐振幅因子异常特征分析，提取现阶段异常状态，并利用速率分析、趋势转折和破年变分析等方法提取震前地倾斜异常并进行效能检验，同时利用经验公式检验提取出的异常分析结果与实际震例震级的相关性，结合地倾斜观测资料震前方位角、倾角变化特征分析7级及以上地震震前异常类型和分布规律，得到以下结论：
1) 通过计算潮汐因子发现，南北地震带以往7级及以上地震地倾斜观测资料中潮汐因子超2倍均方差阈值异常的多在震前0.5~1 a出现，且异常持续时间多为1~3个月。积石山6.2级地震后仍有部分地倾斜观测资料表现为潮汐因子超阈值异常，且多集中在甘川陕、川滇交界处。
2) 利用速率分析、破年变分析和趋势转折分别提取异常指标发现，速率分析提取的异常多以短期异常为主，破年变分析和趋势转折多适用于中长期异常。选用破年变分析和趋势转折提取的异常指标中，通过经验公式分析持续时间与历史震例震级的相关性发现，7级地震震中500 km范围内的地倾斜异常确与地震相关，而趋势转折的计算结果与历史震例震级更为接近。现阶段仍存在异常的地倾斜指标虽多分布在甘青川交界，但通过经验公式计算所得的震级较2023-12-18发生的积石山6.2级地震震级高。
3) 通过对以往地震前地倾斜方位角、倾角异常特征进行总结分析发现，7级及以上地震前地倾斜方位角、倾角多同步出现异常，且分布在震中300~500 km范围内，越靠近震中异常数量越少，大多以方位角或倾角单项异常为主。玉树7.1级、九寨沟7.0级和玛多7.4级地震前地倾斜倾角、方位角异常多分布在震中单侧，且集中在甘青川交界地区，而汶川8.0级和芦山7.0级地震前地倾斜倾角、方位角异常呈近NS向分布，与现阶段存在的异常分布特征较为相似，因此南北地震带南段和北段应力分布特征存在差异。
综上所述，积石山6.2级地震后甘宁陕、川滇交界处仍存在部分地倾斜异常，表现为7级地震前潮汐因子超阈值异常、趋势异常及破年变异常，且不同类型异常持续时间大多以中期为主，仍需关注该区域地倾斜资料的变化。
基金
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  • 甘肃省地震局地震科技发展基金(2022G01)
  • 中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2023010207)
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Niu Anfu. Abruptness of Crustal Deformation and Short-Term Earthquake Prediction[D]. Beijing: Institute of Geophysics, CEA, 2000
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doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.03.142
  • 接收时间：2024-03-28
  • 首发时间：2026-10-30
  • 出版时间：2025-02-15
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  • 收稿日期：2024-03-28
基金
Seismological Science and Technology Development Fund of Gansu Earthquake Agency(2022G01)
甘肃省地震局地震科技发展基金(2022G01)
The Earthquake Tracking Task of CEA(2023010207)
中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2023010207)
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    1 甘肃省地震局, 兰州市东岗西路450号, 730000
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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