Article(id=1309574967944110324, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, issueId=1309574965775659485, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.08.015, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=0, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1766678400000, receivedDateStr=2025-12-26, revisedDate=1774713600000, revisedDateStr=2026-03-29, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1790156603084, onlineDateStr=2026-09-23, pubDate=null, pubDateStr=null, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1790156603084, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-09-23, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1790156603084, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1790156603084, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1309574965775659485, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, year='2026', volume='34', issue='8', pageStart='2753', pageEnd='3140', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1786723200000', pubDateStr='2026-08-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1790156602567, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1790156935415, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1309576361992352087, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, issueId=1309574965775659485, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1309576361992352088, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, issueId=1309574965775659485, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=2909, endPage=2920, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1309574968749416694, articleId=1309574967944110324, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, language=EN, title=Prediction of Ecological Security Evolution and Obstacle Degree Analysis in Qinghai Province Based on an Improved Grey Model, columnId=null, journalTitle=Acta Agrestia Sinica, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=To investigate the evolution pattern of ecological security in Qinghai Province， in this study we constructed an evaluation system based on the PSR （Pressure-State-Response） framework， integrated obstacle degree analysis with residual-corrected GM（1，1）-Verhulst modeling to identify constraining factors and conduct short-term forecasting. The results revealed that the comprehensive ecological security index in Qinghai Province increased from 0.54 to 0.66 during 2005-2023， with the security level upgrading from “Critical Security （Grade Ⅲ）” to “Relatively Secure （Grade Ⅳ）”. The evolution followed a trajectory of “response strengthening-state improvement-comprehensive enhancement”. Spatial distribution exhibited an “east-high west-stable” differentiation pattern， with eastern regions achieving the “Very Secure（Grade Ⅴ）” level ahead of others. The obstacle mechanism transitioned from early “pressure-dominated” to “state-response dual-constraint” type， indicating that ecosystem structural quality and environmental governance capacity have become critical limiting factors. Short-term prediction suggested that the ecological security index would approach 0.73 by 2028， stably maintaining a high-level “Relatively Secure（Grade Ⅳ）” status. Future efforts should shift from response enhancement to ecosystem resilience improvement， implementing differentiated zoning strategies to support national ecological security barrier construction., authors=GUO Jing¹, WEI Zhen², ZHOU Hua-kun³, LI Hong-lin⁴, authorsList=GUO Jing, WEI Zhen, ZHOU Hua-kun, LI Hong-lin, authorCompany=1 Research Department of Ecological Civilization, Qinghai Academy of Social Sciences, Xining, Qinghai Province 810000, China;
2 Research Department of Economics, Qinghai Academy of Social Sciences, Xining, Qinghai Province 810000, China;
3 Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Science, Key Laboratory of Restoration Ecology of Cold Area in Qinghai Province, Xining, Qinghai Province 810008, China;
4 State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810016, China, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1309574968673919221, articleId=1309574967944110324, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, language=CN, title=基于改进灰色模型的青海省生态安全演进预测及障碍度分析, columnId=1309565024058835950, journalTitle=草地学报, columnName=研究论文, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=为探究青海省生态安全演进规律，本文基于PSR模型构建评价体系，结合障碍度分析与残差修正GM（1，1）-Verhulst方法，识别制约因素并开展短期预测，发现2005—2023年青海省生态安全综合指数由0.54提升至0.66，等级由“临界安全（Ⅲ）”跨越至“较安全（Ⅳ）”；形成“响应强化-状态改善-综合提升”演进路径；空间格局呈“东高西稳”的分异特征，东部地区率先进入“非常安全（Ⅴ）”等级；障碍机制由早期“压力主导”逐步转向“状态-响应双约束型”，生态系统结构质量与环境治理能力成为关键制约因素；短期预测显示，2028年生态安全指数预计接近0.73，稳定维持在“较安全（Ⅳ）”高位区间。未来需从强化响应转向提升生态系统韧性，实施差异化分区策略，支撑国家生态安全屏障建设。, authors=郭婧¹, 魏珍², 周华坤³, 李宏林⁴, authorsList=郭婧, 魏珍, 周华坤, 李宏林, authorCompany=1 青海省社会科学院生态文明研究所, 青海 西宁 810000;
2 青海省社会科学院经济研究所, 青海 西宁 810000;
3 中国科学院西北高原生物研究所/青海省寒区恢复生态学重点实验室, 青海 西宁 810008;
4 青海大学/省部共建三江源生态与高原农牧业国家重点实验室, 青海 西宁 810016, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=郭婧(1989-),女,汉族,青海西宁人,博士,副研究员,主要从事生态经济、环境生态学研究,E-mail:352097314@qq.com, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=ns5HyvgTV63Amu3ofoJvDA==, pdfFileSize=2866797, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=国家黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展联合研究中心项目 (2022-YRUC-01-0102); 青海省科技厅基础研究面上项目 (2025-ZJ-990M))}, authors=null, keywords=[Keyword(id=1309574969143681271, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, articleId=1309574967944110324, language=CN, orderNo=1, keyword=生态安全), Keyword(id=1309574969206595832, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, articleId=1309574967944110324, language=CN, orderNo=2, keyword=改进灰色模型), Keyword(id=1309574969516974329, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, articleId=1309574967944110324, language=CN, orderNo=3, keyword=演进预测), Keyword(id=1309574969584083194, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, articleId=1309574967944110324, language=CN, orderNo=4, keyword=障碍度), Keyword(id=1309574969688940795, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, articleId=1309574967944110324, language=EN, orderNo=1, keyword=Ecological security), Keyword(id=1309574969890267388, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, articleId=1309574967944110324, language=EN, orderNo=2, keyword=Improved grey model), Keyword(id=1309574969969959165, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, articleId=1309574967944110324, language=EN, orderNo=3, keyword=Evolution prediction), Keyword(id=1309574970032873726, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, articleId=1309574967944110324, language=EN, orderNo=4, keyword=Obstacle degree)], refs=null, funds=null, companyList=null, figs=null, attaches=null, journal=Journal(id=1308395841968504927, delFlag=0, nameCn=草地学报, nameEn=Acta Agrestia Sinica, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, issn=1007-0435, eissn=null, cn=11-3362/S, coden=null, periodic=0, language=CN, oaType=null, ccby=null, superviseOffice=null, ownerOffice=null, pubOffice=null, editorOffice=null, officeType=null, aims=null, clcCode=null, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=null, officeZip=null, officeEmail=null, officePhone=null, editDirector=null, officeDirector=null, officeDirectorPhone=null, officeStaffNum=null, officeEmpNum=null, coverPicUrl=gCdi9sXCX82eLR6S1d4VLg==, journalPrice=null, startedYear=null, abbrevIsoEn=Acta Agrestia Sinica, journalRemark=null, publicationField=null, createdTime=1789875477545, updatedTime=1789876241473, createdBy=18614031015, updatedBy=13701087609, firstLetterCn=C, firstLetterEn=C, subjectCode=Agriculture, subjectName=null, subjectCodeEn=Agriculture, subjectNameEn=null, picCn=gCdi9sXCX82eLR6S1d4VLg==, picEn=4dKqEDfsaGuyf+bpm/3gfw==, jcr=null, cjcr=null, exts=[JournalExt(id=1308399046192812446, language=CN, name=草地学报, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, managedBy=, sponsoredBy=, publishedBy=, editorOffice=, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=, officeZip=, editDirector=, officeDirector=null, officePhone=null, coverPicUrl=null, journalRemark=, submitArticleUrl=null, websiteUrl=, createdTime=1789876241491, updatedTime=1789876241491, createdBy=13701087609, updatedBy=13701087609, submissionGuidelinesUrl=, submissionAuthorUrl=https://manu40.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_cdxb/authorLogOn.action, submissionEditorUrl=https://manu40.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_cdxb/editorLogOn.action, submissionReviewUrl=https://manu40.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_cdxb/expertLogOn.action, submissionCeEditorUrl=, submissionAeEditorUrl=, option={"copyright":""}), JournalExt(id=1308399046268309919, language=EN, name=Acta Agrestia Sinica, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, managedBy=, sponsoredBy=, publishedBy=, editorOffice=, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=, officeZip=, editDirector=, officeDirector=null, officePhone=null, coverPicUrl=null, journalRemark=, submitArticleUrl=null, websiteUrl=, createdTime=1789876241509, updatedTime=1789876241509, createdBy=13701087609, updatedBy=13701087609, submissionGuidelinesUrl=, submissionAuthorUrl=https://manu40.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_cdxb/authorLogOn.action, submissionEditorUrl=https://manu40.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_cdxb/editorLogOn.action, submissionReviewUrl=https://manu40.magtech.com.cn/JournalX_cdxb/expertLogOn.action, submissionCeEditorUrl=, submissionAeEditorUrl=, option={"copyright":""})], databaseList=null, tenantJournalId=1308397196074385509, websiteList=[Website(id=1308429426430071695, webName=null, webTitle=null, webDomain=null, webCopyrigh=null, webIpcNo=null, seoTitle=null, seoKeywords=null, seoDescription=null, tenantJournalId=null, journalId=1308397196074385509, journalNameCn=null, journalNameEn=null, grayFlag=null, tenantId=1146029695717560320, platformId=null, journalGroupId=null, journalGroupNameCn=null, journalGroupNameEn=null, type=1, domain=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cdxb/CN, language=CN, createTime=1789883484704, createBy=18614031015, updateTime=1789883745058, updateBy=18614031015, name=草地学报-中文, tplId=1146099689490845704, title=草地学报, delFlag=0, indexPage=/home, props=[WebsiteProps(id=1308430669353340972, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426430071695, code=articleTextType, value=kx, createTime=1789883781040, updateTime=1789883781040, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430669328175145, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426430071695, code=banner, value=null, createTime=1789883781034, updateTime=1789883781034, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430669382701103, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426430071695, code=grayFlag, value=0, createTime=1789883781047, updateTime=1789883781047, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430669319786536, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426430071695, code=logo, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cdxb/CN/file/pic?fileId=BZ28lIoKdB54MmA0z6K66g==, createTime=1789883781032, updateTime=1789883781032, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430669395284017, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426430071695, code=minRunFlag, value=0, createTime=1789883781050, updateTime=1789883781050, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430669344952363, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426430071695, code=picServerUrl, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cdxb/CN/file/pic, createTime=1789883781038, updateTime=1789883781038, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430669391089712, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426430071695, code=silenceFlag, value=0, createTime=1789883781049, updateTime=1789883781049, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430669336563754, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426430071695, code=staticResourcePath, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cast_kjdb_cn_619/, createTime=1789883781036, updateTime=1789883781036, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430669361729581, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426430071695, code=themeColor, value=null, createTime=1789883781042, updateTime=1789883781042, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430669370118190, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426430071695, code=themeStyle, value=null, createTime=1789883781044, updateTime=1789883781044, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015)]), Website(id=1308429426501374870, webName=null, webTitle=null, webDomain=null, webCopyrigh=null, webIpcNo=null, seoTitle=null, seoKeywords=null, seoDescription=null, tenantJournalId=null, journalId=1308397196074385509, journalNameCn=null, journalNameEn=null, grayFlag=null, tenantId=1146029695717560320, platformId=null, journalGroupId=null, journalGroupNameCn=null, journalGroupNameEn=null, type=1, domain=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cdxb/EN, language=EN, createTime=1789883484721, createBy=18614031015, updateTime=1789883716139, updateBy=18614031015, name=草地学报-英文, tplId=1146101810881728533, title=Acta Agrestia Sinica, delFlag=0, indexPage=/home, props=[WebsiteProps(id=1308430635979264030, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426501374870, code=articleTextType, value=kx, createTime=1789883773083, updateTime=1789883773083, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430635954098203, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426501374870, code=banner, value=null, createTime=1789883773077, updateTime=1789883773077, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430636000235553, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426501374870, code=grayFlag, value=0, createTime=1789883773088, updateTime=1789883773088, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430635945709594, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426501374870, code=logo, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cdxb/EN/file/pic?fileId=BZ28lIoKdB54MmA0z6K66g==, createTime=1789883773075, updateTime=1789883773075, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430636012818467, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426501374870, code=minRunFlag, value=0, createTime=1789883773091, updateTime=1789883773091, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430635970875421, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426501374870, code=picServerUrl, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cdxb/EN/file/pic, createTime=1789883773081, updateTime=1789883773081, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430636004429858, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426501374870, code=silenceFlag, value=0, createTime=1789883773089, updateTime=1789883773089, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430635962486812, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426501374870, code=staticResourcePath, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cast_kjdb_en_623/, createTime=1789883773079, updateTime=1789883773079, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430635987652639, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426501374870, code=themeColor, value=null, createTime=1789883773085, updateTime=1789883773085, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1308430635991846944, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1308429426501374870, code=themeStyle, value=null, createTime=1789883773086, updateTime=1789883773086, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015)])], journalTitle=草地学报, weixinUrl=null, journalUrl=https://manu40.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_cdxb, iacademicId=null, status=1, seqNo=null, journalTitleEn=Acta Agrestia Sinica, journalPhotoCn=gCdi9sXCX82eLR6S1d4VLg==, journalPhotoEn=4dKqEDfsaGuyf+bpm/3gfw==, journalFirstLetter=C, journalRecommend=null, journalNew=null, journalCollection=null, jcrJf=null, cjcrJf=null, jcrJfStr=null, cjcrJfStr=null, submissionFirstDecision=null, sciSubjectClassification=null, casSubjectClassification=null, citeScore=null, totalCitationFrequency=null, icpCode=null, psCode=null, advertisingLicenseCode=null, copyrightInformation=null, country=null, option=, provinceCode=null, provinceName=null, collectFlag=false, interPubPlatform=, interPubPlatformUrl=null), detailUrlCn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cdxb/CN/10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.08.015, detailUrlEn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cdxb/EN/10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.08.015, pdfUrlCn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cdxb/CN/PDF/10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.08.015, pdfUrlEn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cdxb/EN/PDF/10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.08.015, aliStartDate=null, aliEndDate=null, collectionFlag=false, citedCount=null, citedUrl=null, previewStatus=0, delFlag=0, hasFullText=0, orderTime=1786723200000, fullTextJson=null, articleText=null, reference=LIU J W，HOU J. Research on ecological security： focus and prospect[J]. Journal of Xidian University （Social Sciences Edition），2022，32（3）：79-86刘建伟，侯捷. 生态安全问题研究：焦点与展望[J]. 西安电子科技大学学报（社会科学版），2022，32（3）：79-86
ZHANG B E，JIANG X D，SUN J L，et al. Regional ecological security in Anhui： dynamic assessment and early warning[J]. Chinese Agricultural science bulletin，2018，34（27）：142-151张贝尔，蒋旭东，孙京禄，等. 安徽省区域生态安全动态评价与预警分析[J]. 中国农学通报，2018，34（27）：142-151
LESTER R B. Building a Sustainable Society[M]. New York： W. W. Norton & Company， 1981：361-369
WAN Z F，LIU X H，LU S Y，et al. Ecological security assessment in Yangtze River Delta Region on DPSIR model[J]. Environmental Impact Assessment，2019，41（5）：22-27，42万正芬，刘晓晖，卢少勇，等. 基于DPSIR模型的长三角地区生态安全评估[J]. 环境影响评价，2019，41（5）：22-27，42
GENELETTI D，BEINAT E，CHUNG C F，et al. Accounting for uncertainty factors in biodiversity impact assessment： lessons from a case study[J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review，2003，23（4）：471-487
PANG Y S，WANG L. A review of regional ecological security evaluation[J]. China Population，Resources and Environment，2014，24（S1）：340-344庞雅颂，王琳. 区域生态安全评价方法综述[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境，2014，24（S1）：340-344
ZHAO F，KONG W N，LI J. The research on agricultural ecological security in China[J]. Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences，2007，35（7）：24-26赵飞，孔维娜，李捷. 中国农业生态安全研究进展[J]. 山西农业科学，2007，35（7）：24-26
HU X F，ZHAO J，QIAN P，et al. A study on theory and evaluation of grassland ecological security[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment，2007，21（4）：93-97胡秀芳，赵军，钱鹏，等. 草原生态安全理论与评价研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境，2007，21（4）：93-97
LI X L，LIU Y R，WANG C，et al. Application of the PSR Model in assessing ecological security in Qinghai Province[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment，2025，25（2）：757-766李小玲，刘逸瑞，王成，等. PSR模型在青海省生态安全评价中的应用[J]. 安全与环境学报，2025，25（2）：757-766
YAN Z Q，TANG H T，DONG K. Evaluation of land ecological security and diagnosis of obstacle factors of Guangxi based on the DPSIR model[J]. Journal of Nanning Normal University （Natural Science Edition），2025，42（3）：40-48严志强，唐惠婷，董凯. 基于DPSIR模型的广西土地生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断[J]. 南宁师范大学学报（自然科学版），2025，42（3）：40-48
JOGO W，HASSAN R. Balancing the use of wetlands for economic well-being and ecological security： the case of the Limpopo wetland in southern Africa[J]. Ecological Economics，2010，69（7）：1569-1579
JIANG G Y，YUN Y X，REN L J，et al. Spatial-temporal discrimination and the related obstacle factor diagnosis for the valley cities urban eco-security in China west based on the improved TOPSIS method[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment，2020，20（1）：342-351蒋贵彦，运迎霞，任利剑，等. 基于改进TOPSIS模型的西部河谷型城市生态安全时空分异及障碍因子诊断[J]. 安全与环境学报，2020，20（1）：342-351
LIU Y H，XIE B P，CHEN Y，et al. Evaluation of land ecological security and diagnosis of obstacle factors in Loess Plateau of central and eastern Gansu Province based on PSR-TOPSIS model[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation，2026，46（1）：130-140刘洋豪，谢保鹏，陈英，等. 基于PSR-TOPSIS模型的陇中陇东黄土高原土地生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断[J]. 水土保持通报，2026，46（1）：130-140
SHAN S Y，XU H J，YANG L，et al. Inter-annual variation of ecological carrying capacity and its controlling factors in Qilian Mountain National Park[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica，2022，30（8）：2191-2198单姝瑶，徐浩杰，杨磊，等. 祁连山国家公园生态承载力年际变化特征及其影响因素分析[J]. 草地学报，2022，30（8）：2191-2198
LI W L，WEI W，SONG Y，et al. Sustainable development of Tibet based on emergy ecological footprint model[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica，2019，27（3）：702-710李文龙，魏巍，宋瑜，等. 基于能值生态足迹与灰色预测模型的西藏可持续性评价[J]. 草地学报，2019，27（3）：702-710
ZHOU C F，WANG Y Y，HUANG R，et al. Evaluation and prediction of atmospheric environmental ecological security and diagnosis of obstacle factors in Baoji City based on PSR-TOPSIS method[J]. Environmental Science and Management，2023，48（11）：171-176周超凡，王毅勇，黄榕，等. 基于PSR-TOPSIS法的宝鸡市大气环境生态安全评价预测及其障碍因子诊断研究[J]. 环境科学与管理，2023，48（11）：171-176
ZHENG L L，MA X W，AN X，et al. Evaluation and prediction of ecological security in Gansu Province based on DPSIR-GM（1，1） model[J]. Ecological Science，2022，41（4）：60-69郑乐乐，马小雯，安翔，等. 基于DPSIR-GM（1，1）模型的甘肃省生态安全评价与预测[J]. 生态科学，2022，41（4）：60-69
JIAN N H，CHEN Y R，JIANG X M. Evaluation and the improving paths of ecological security of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Forest Resources Management，2022（6）：7-13菅宁红，陈雅如，姜雪梅. 青藏高原生态安全评价与提升路径[J]. 林业资源管理，2022（6）：7-13
QIAO P. Evaluation and analysis of ecological security characteristics in the northwest of Tibetan plateau[D]. Linfen：Shanxi Normal University，2022：8-13乔鹏. 青藏高原极西北部生态安全特征评价分析[D]. 临汾：山西师范大学，2022：8-13
GUO W，HU X W. Ecological security assessment of Qinghai Province based on “provincial hectares” ecological footprint model[J]. Qinghai Science and Technology，2022，29（2）：18-24郭玮，胡西武. 基于“省公顷”生态足迹模型的青海省生态安全评价[J]. 青海科技，2022，29（2）：18-24
CHENG L，FANG J P，LI C Y，et al. Evaluation of sustainable development in Tibet basedon emergy ecological footprint theory[J]. Journal of Plateau Agriculture，2020，4（5）：523-530程丽，方江平，李超逸，等. 基于能值生态足迹模型的西藏自治区生态安全评价及预测[J]. 高原农业，2020，4（5）：523-530
SHANNON C E. A mathematical theory of communication[J]. Bell System Technical Journal，1948，27（3）：379-423
MON D L，CHENG C H，LIN J C. Evaluating weapon system using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on entropy weight[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems，1994，62（2）：127-134
DENG J L. Overview of grey system[J]. Orld Science，1983（7）：1-5邓聚龙. 灰色系统综述[J]. 世界科学，1983（7）：1-5
LI Z F，GAO J，ZHONG Y. Assessment on grassland ecological security in Tibet based on ecological footprint model improved by ecosystem services value[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment，2023，37（4）：9-19李中锋，高婕，钟毅. 西藏草地生态安全评价研究——基于生态系统服务价值改进的生态足迹模型[J]. 干旱区资源与环境，2023，37（4）：9-19
MA N S，ZHI X J，SONG Y T. Evaluation and prediction of the cultivated land ecological security in Tibet based on PSR and GM （1，1） model[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment，2018，32（11）：81-86马年圣，支晓娟，宋雨婷. 基于PSR和GM（1，1）模型的西藏耕地生态安全评价与预测[J]. 干旱区资源与环境，2018，32（11）：81-86
YANG Z，LI C W，REN Z Y，et al. Evaluation of land use performance in Ningxia，China based on entropy-weight TOPSIS model and diagnosis of its obstacle factors[J]. Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment，2023，45（4）：796-805，766杨志，李才文，任正龑，等. 基于熵权TOPSIS模型的宁夏土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断[J]. 地球科学与环境学报，2023，45（4）：796-805，766
LIU S F，DENG J L. The range suitable for GM（1，1）[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice，2000，20（5）：121-124刘思峰，邓聚龙. GM（1，1）模型的适用范围[J]. 系统工程理论与实践，2000，20（5）：121-124
ZHANG B C. Prediction and analysis of air quality in Yinchuan City based on residual modified GM（1，1） model[J]. Journal of Green Science and Technology，2019，21（12）：118-122张炳彩. 基于残差修正GM（1，1）模型的银川市空气质量预测分析[J]. 绿色科技，2019，21（12）：118-122
LI Z Y，XUE M K，WANG S B，et al. Early warning of land ecological security in Kunming City based on PSR-PLUS model[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin，2025，34（4）：871-881李志英，薛梦柯，王绍邦，等. 基于PSR-PLUS模型的昆明市土地生态安全预警研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境，2025，34（4）：871-881
WU Y X，WEI Z B，WANG A Q. Ecological safety evaluation and influencing factors of Yellow River Basin based on DPSIR model[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation，2022，42（6）：322-331吴艳霞，魏志斌，王爱琼. 基于DPSIR模型的黄河流域生态安全评价及影响因素研究[J]. 水土保持通报，2022，42（6）：322-331
JIA H F，DU P Y. Ecological security evaluation and obstacle factor diagnosis in Qinghai Province based on DPSIR-TOPSIS and obstacle degree models[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization，2024，45（2）：296-305贾海发，杜鹏阳. 基于DPSIR-TOPSIS和障碍度模型的青海省生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断[J]. 农业现代化研究，2024，45（2）：296-305
RAN Q Y，LI N. Ecological security assessment based on PSR model： a case study of Xinjiang uygur autonomous region[J]. Ecological Economy，2015，31（7）：114-117冉启英，李宁. 基于压力-状态-响应模型的生态安全评价——以新疆为例[J]. 生态经济，2015，31（7）：114-117
ZHOU Q T，HE G，YANG J W，et al. Land ecological security evaluation based on PSR model—taking Huaibei City as an example[J]. Journal of Anhui University of Science and Technology （Social Science），2019，21（6）：21-26周庆婷，何刚，杨静雯，等. 基于PSR模型的土地生态安全评价——以淮北市为例[J]. 安徽理工大学学报（社会科学版），2019，21（6）：21-26
HU L Y，DENG Y，CHEN Z，et al. Research on ecological safety evaluation of Yangtze River economic zone based on PSR model[J]. Journal of Wuhan Polytechnic University，2018，37（2）：58-64胡玲燕，邓义，陈哲，等. 基于PSR模型的长江经济带生态安全评价研究[J]. 武汉轻工大学学报，2018，37（2）：58-64)