Article(id=1309575081790108332, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, issueId=1309575072856240766, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.06.020, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=0, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1754841600000, receivedDateStr=2025-08-11, revisedDate=1766246400000, revisedDateStr=2025-12-21, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1790156630227, onlineDateStr=2026-09-23, pubDate=null, pubDateStr=null, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1790156630227, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-09-23, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1790156630227, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1790156630227, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1309575072856240766, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, year='2026', volume='34', issue='6', pageStart='1963', pageEnd='2340', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1781452800000', pubDateStr='2026-06-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1790156628097, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1790156954064, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1309576440438419817, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, issueId=1309575072856240766, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1309576440438419818, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, issueId=1309575072856240766, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=2173, endPage=2183, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1309575082511528622, articleId=1309575081790108332, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, language=EN, title=Assessment of Yield-Rainfall Matching Degree of the Alfalfa-maize Rotation System in Central and Northern Shanxi Based on the APSIM Model, columnId=null, journalTitle=Acta Agrestia Sinica, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=This study aimed to assess the sustainability of alfalfa-grain maize rotations in central-northern Shanxi Province， China， and to screeen the optimal management strategies. The Agricultural Production System Simulator （APSIM） model was calibrated using multi-site experimental data and employed to simulate long-term historical （1985—2014） and future climate scenarios （2021—2050； 2051—2080）. Three rotation systems were compared： 6A （6-year continuous alfalfa）， 5A1C （5-year alfalfa+1-year grain maize）， and 4A2C （4-year alfalfa+2-year grain maize）. The results indicated that the model performed well in simulating yield and biomass （Normalized Root Mean Squared Error， NRMSE<20%）. Under future climate scenarios， the equivalent yield of 6A was significantly higher than that of 5A1C and 4A2C （P<0.05）， which were increased by 9.45% and 23.02% compared to 5A1C in the 2020s and 2050s， respectively and increased by 23.02% and 28.49% compared to 4A2C. Furthermore， 6A achieved the highest single-cycle equivalent yield （59.98 t/hm²） under the historical scenarios. Regarding precipitation matching， values exceeded 0.6 for maize and were >0.8 for alfalfa during May–August. However， the matching degree was lower in April， September， and October， indicating substantial irrigation requirements. The precipitation matching were significantly improved by future scenarios （P<0.05）， though the values of 6A remained lower than 4A2C during April and May. In conclusion， 6A maximized land productivity under future climates with enhanced irrigation in spring conversely. 4A2C offers a more balanced combination of productivity and water use efficiency. Our results could support the strategies of optimized forage and adaptive rotation strategy in Shanxi., authors=LIU Peng^1,2, JIA Xiao-yi^1,2, HE Shi-jia^1,2, XU Hong-yu^1,2, YANG Xuan^1,2, authorsList=LIU Peng, JIA Xiao-yi, HE Shi-jia, XU Hong-yu, YANG Xuan, authorCompany=1 College of Grassland Science, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong, Shanxi Province 030801, China;
2 Shanxi Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecological Protection and Native Grass Germplasm Innovation, Jinzhong, Shanxi Province 030801, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1309575082448614061, articleId=1309575081790108332, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, language=CN, title=基于APSIM模型评估山西中北部“苜蓿-玉米”轮作模式产量与降水的匹配度, columnId=1309565024058835950, journalTitle=草地学报, columnName=研究论文, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=本研究拟评估山西中至北部紫花苜蓿-籽实玉米轮作的可持续性，并筛选最优模式。为此，本研究基于多点试验数据校准APSIM（Agricultural Production System Simulator）模型，开展历史情景（1985—2014）与未来情景（2021—2050，2051—2080）长期模拟，比较6A（6年苜蓿）、5A1C（5年苜蓿1年籽实玉米）、4A2C（4年苜蓿2年籽实玉米）。结果表明：模型对产量与生物量拟合良好（归一化均方根误差<20%）。未来情景下，6A当量产量显著高于5A1C与4A2C（P<0.05），较5A1C在2020s与2050s分别增9.45%与12.12%，较4A2C增23.02%与28.49%；历史情景下6A的单循环当量产量也最高（59.98 t·hm^-2）。降水匹配度：玉米>0.6；苜蓿5—8月>0.8，4、9、10月偏低，灌溉需求高；未来情景匹配度显著提升（P<0.05），但4—5月6A低于4A2C。综上，未来采用6A可获最高土地生产力，但春季需强化灌溉；4A2C在产出与用水上更稳健，为优化山西饲草种植与适应性选择提供依据。, authors=刘鹏^1,2, 贾晓怡^1,2, 何世佳^1,2, 徐洪雨^1,2, 杨轩^1,2, authorsList=刘鹏, 贾晓怡, 何世佳, 徐洪雨, 杨轩, authorCompany=1 山西农业大学草业学院, 山西 晋中 030801;
2 草地生态保护与乡土草种质创新山西省重点实验室, 山西 晋中 030801, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=刘鹏(2000-),男,汉族,河南驻马店人,硕士研究生,主要从事田间粮草耦合与模型应用研究,E-mail:18137573069@163.com, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=n0wlSJAgrjnMChyBF2lM/Q==, pdfFileSize=2012121, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目 (32001404); 山西农业大学科技创新基金项目 (2020BQ26))}, authors=null, keywords=[Keyword(id=1309575082637357743, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, articleId=1309575081790108332, language=CN, orderNo=1, keyword=紫花苜蓿), Keyword(id=1309575082700272304, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1308397196074385509, articleId=1309575081790108332, language=CN, orderNo=2, keyword=玉米), 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