Article(id=1243879755381060573, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, issueId=1243879752042398333, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3969/j.issn.1007-7294.2024.08.012, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1708272000000, receivedDateStr=2024-02-19, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1774493643850, onlineDateStr=2026-03-26, pubDate=1724083200000, pubDateStr=2024-08-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1774493643850, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-26, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1774493643850, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1774493643850, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1243879752042398333, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, year='2024', volume='28', issue='8', pageStart='1133', pageEnd='1296', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1774493643055, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1774493947997, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1243881031133147325, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, issueId=1243879752042398333, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1243881031133147326, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, issueId=1243879752042398333, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1254, endPage=1264, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1243879755741770721, articleId=1243879755381060573, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, language=EN, title=Reliability study on bearing capacity of monopile wind turbines based on structure-soil coupling, columnId=1242129251223274417, journalTitle=Journal of Ship Mechanics, columnName=Structural Mechanics, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Large-diameter monopiles are an important type of offshore wind turbines (OWTs) foundations, whose bearing capacities are the core issue in foundation design. In this paper, the BP neural network and Monte-Carlo simulation coupled method were improved and used to study the reliability of the bearing capacity of a large-diameter monopile wind turbine under serviceability limit state (SLS), considering the real geological condition and the correlation of wind speed, wave height and wave period. The bearing capacity analysis was conducted based on the monopile-soil contact surface model. The accuracy of the numerical model was verified in two conditions: sand and clay foundations, respectively. Then the finite element model was adopted to determine the values of the training points of neural network. Finally, with the LW 8MW OWT taken as an example, the reliability of the bearing capacity of the monopile-supported OWT under SLS was calculated. The improved method can provide a reference for the subsequent design and construction of offshore wind farms in China.

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大直径单桩是海上风机重要的基础型式,其承载力可靠性是桩基设计的关键问题。本文考虑实际多土层的地质条件以及风速、波高、周期等环境参数的相关性,改进并采用BP神经网络与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合的方法,对大直径单桩风机在正常使用极限状态(SLS)下的承载力可靠性开展研究;基于桩-土接触面模型进行确定性的承载力分析,分别对砂土、粘土海床中的准确性进行验证,并采用该模型确定神经网络训练点的准确解;最后,以LW 8MW风机为例,进行SLS下单桩风机承载力可靠性分析。该方法可以为国内后续海上风电场的设计建设提供参考。

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通讯作者,E-mail:
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汤苏西(1999-),男,学士

殷齐麟(1990-),男,博士,副教授,通讯作者,E-mail:

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articleId=1243879755381060573, language=CN, label=图10, caption=BP神经网络的预测值与实际值相关关系, figureFileSmall=q/uAyYPIFv16roSwuXvDcg==, figureFileBig=spMSDSUq5cnedUg5T4uHGA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1243879769742357000, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, articleId=1243879755381060573, language=EN, label=Tab.1, caption=

Parameter estimation and goodness-of-fit test results for Pearson-III distribution of H, W, and T

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环境变量 a0 β a
H2.2801×10-728.2828.53960.0883
W10.268.46490.84150.08840.2873
T1.105×10-6141.220.720.0941
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HWT的Pearson-III型分布参数估计及拟合优度检验结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
环境变量 a0 β a
H2.2801×10-728.2828.53960.0883
W10.268.46490.84150.08840.2873
T1.105×10-6141.220.720.0941
), ArticleFig(id=1243879770006598164, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, articleId=1243879755381060573, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

Goodness-of-fit evaluation results of three-dimensional Archimedean Copula function

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拟合优度ClaytonFrankGHAMH
RMSE0.07230.20990.04660.1641
AIC-108.31-63.5732-126.84-73.90
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三维Archimedean Copulas函数拟合优度评价结果

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拟合优度ClaytonFrankGHAMH
RMSE0.07230.20990.04660.1641
AIC-108.31-63.5732-126.84-73.90
), ArticleFig(id=1243879770287616544, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, articleId=1243879755381060573, language=EN, label=Tab.3, caption=

LW 8MW OWT technical parameters

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技术参数数值技术参数数值
功率/MW8机舱重量/t285
扇叶数量3单个叶片重量/t35
转子直径/m164叶片投影面积/m2217
机舱中心点高度/m110塔筒高度/m106.3
切入风速,切出风速,额定风速/(m·s-14,25,12.5塔筒直径/m,壁厚/mm5~7.7,22~36
轮毂质量/t90
), ArticleFig(id=1243879770400862752, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, articleId=1243879755381060573, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

LW 8MW风机技术参数

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技术参数数值技术参数数值
功率/MW8机舱重量/t285
扇叶数量3单个叶片重量/t35
转子直径/m164叶片投影面积/m2217
机舱中心点高度/m110塔筒高度/m106.3
切入风速,切出风速,额定风速/(m·s-14,25,12.5塔筒直径/m,壁厚/mm5~7.7,22~36
轮毂质量/t90
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Soil layers and Mohr-Coulomb model parameters

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土层编号类型深度/m弹性模量E/MPa泊松比μ内摩擦角φ粘聚力c/kPa重度γ/(kN·m-3
1粘土0-5100.470.1207
2中密度砂土5-14400.3340.510
3粘土14-55250.470.1507
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土层分布以及土体的摩尔-库伦模型参数

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土层编号类型深度/m弹性模量E/MPa泊松比μ内摩擦角φ粘聚力c/kPa重度γ/(kN·m-3
1粘土0-5100.470.1207
2中密度砂土5-14400.3340.510
3粘土14-55250.470.1507
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Selection of training points for BP neural network

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参数数值
轮毂处风速W/(m·s-118,24.9,25,25.1,35,45,55,56,57,58,59,60,65
波高H/m1.5,3.5,5.5,6.5,7
周期T/s5,7,9,10
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BP神经网络训练点的选取

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参数数值
轮毂处风速W/(m·s-118,24.9,25,25.1,35,45,55,56,57,58,59,60,65
波高H/m1.5,3.5,5.5,6.5,7
周期T/s5,7,9,10
), ArticleFig(id=1243879771017425464, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, articleId=1243879755381060573, language=EN, label=Tab.6, caption=

Calculation results of the rotation in the mudline (partial data)

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轮毂处风速/(m·s-110 m处风速/(m·s-1波高/m周期/s泥面转角θ轮毂处风速/(m·s-110 m处风速/(m·s-1波高/m周期/s泥面转角θ
11.57.53790.132475533.46790.241746
1810.95790.088545634.07790.250321
24.915.15790.0793645734.68790.259335
2515.21790.079325835.29790.26852
25.115.27790.0742035935.89790.27794
3521.29790.1117286036.5790.287614
4527.38790.1667736539.54790.339897
), ArticleFig(id=1243879771143254593, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, articleId=1243879755381060573, language=CN, label=表6, caption=

泥面转角的计算结果(部分数据)

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轮毂处风速/(m·s-110 m处风速/(m·s-1波高/m周期/s泥面转角θ轮毂处风速/(m·s-110 m处风速/(m·s-1波高/m周期/s泥面转角θ
11.57.53790.132475533.46790.241746
1810.95790.088545634.07790.250321
24.915.15790.0793645734.68790.259335
2515.21790.079325835.29790.26852
25.115.27790.0742035935.89790.27794
3521.29790.1117286036.5790.287614
4527.38790.1667736539.54790.339897
), ArticleFig(id=1243879771256500805, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, articleId=1243879755381060573, language=EN, label=Tab.7, caption=

Distribution of the rotation at mudline caused by environmental parameters

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泥面转角范围/°组数占比(%)泥面转角范围/°组数占比(%)
<0.115765278.8260.2~0.258440.422
0.1~0.153601018.005>0.251980.099
0.15~0.252962.648
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环境参数导致的泥面转角分布情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
泥面转角范围/°组数占比(%)泥面转角范围/°组数占比(%)
<0.115765278.8260.2~0.258440.422
0.1~0.153601018.005>0.251980.099
0.15~0.252962.648
), ArticleFig(id=1243879771449438798, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, articleId=1243879755381060573, language=EN, label=Tab.8, caption=

SRC value between the environment parameters and the structural response

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变量对SRC
风速-泥面转角0.993
波高-泥面转角0.846
周期-泥面转角0.812
), ArticleFig(id=1243879771566879314, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240685776644648972, articleId=1243879755381060573, language=CN, label=表8, caption=

环境参数与结构响应之间的SRC值

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变量对SRC
风速-泥面转角0.993
波高-泥面转角0.846
周期-泥面转角0.812
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基于桩土耦合作用的单桩式风机承载力可靠性研究
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汤苏西 , 殷齐麟 , 翟金金 , 王薇
船舶力学 | 结构力学 2024,28(8): 1254-1264
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船舶力学 | 结构力学 2024, 28(8): 1254-1264
基于桩土耦合作用的单桩式风机承载力可靠性研究
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汤苏西, 殷齐麟 , 翟金金, 王薇
作者信息
  • 江苏科技大学,江苏 镇江 212100
  • 汤苏西(1999-),男,学士

    殷齐麟(1990-),男,博士,副教授,通讯作者,E-mail:

通讯作者:

通讯作者,E-mail:
Reliability study on bearing capacity of monopile wind turbines based on structure-soil coupling
Su-xi TANG, Qi-lin YIN , Jin-jin ZHAI, Wei WANG
Affiliations
  • Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212100, China
出版时间: 2024-08-20 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7294.2024.08.012
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大直径单桩是海上风机重要的基础型式,其承载力可靠性是桩基设计的关键问题。本文考虑实际多土层的地质条件以及风速、波高、周期等环境参数的相关性,改进并采用BP神经网络与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合的方法,对大直径单桩风机在正常使用极限状态(SLS)下的承载力可靠性开展研究;基于桩-土接触面模型进行确定性的承载力分析,分别对砂土、粘土海床中的准确性进行验证,并采用该模型确定神经网络训练点的准确解;最后,以LW 8MW风机为例,进行SLS下单桩风机承载力可靠性分析。该方法可以为国内后续海上风电场的设计建设提供参考。

单桩风机  /  承载力可靠性  /  桩-土接触面模型  /  BP神经网络与蒙特卡罗模拟  /  参数相关性

Large-diameter monopiles are an important type of offshore wind turbines (OWTs) foundations, whose bearing capacities are the core issue in foundation design. In this paper, the BP neural network and Monte-Carlo simulation coupled method were improved and used to study the reliability of the bearing capacity of a large-diameter monopile wind turbine under serviceability limit state (SLS), considering the real geological condition and the correlation of wind speed, wave height and wave period. The bearing capacity analysis was conducted based on the monopile-soil contact surface model. The accuracy of the numerical model was verified in two conditions: sand and clay foundations, respectively. Then the finite element model was adopted to determine the values of the training points of neural network. Finally, with the LW 8MW OWT taken as an example, the reliability of the bearing capacity of the monopile-supported OWT under SLS was calculated. The improved method can provide a reference for the subsequent design and construction of offshore wind farms in China.

OWT of monopile  /  reliability of bearing capacity  /  monopile-soil contact surface model  /  BP neural network and Monte-Carlo simulation  /  parameter correlation
汤苏西, 殷齐麟, 翟金金, 王薇. 基于桩土耦合作用的单桩式风机承载力可靠性研究. 船舶力学, 2024 , 28 (8) : 1254 -1264 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7294.2024.08.012
Su-xi TANG, Qi-lin YIN, Jin-jin ZHAI, Wei WANG. Reliability study on bearing capacity of monopile wind turbines based on structure-soil coupling[J]. Journal of Ship Mechanics, 2024 , 28 (8) : 1254 -1264 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7294.2024.08.012
我国海上风机多位于水深40 m以内的海域,且以单桩式风机为主[1],由于海上风机经常会受到台风等极端环境荷载的作用,其承载力可靠性面临巨大的挑战[2]。当前风机的结构设计方法包括确定性设计方法[3]和基于可靠性理论的概率设计方法,研究表明,相比确定性设计方法,基于可靠性分析的概率设计方法能有效地避免过度保守的结构设计[4]
目前针对海上风机结构的可靠性研究,主要包括承载力极限状态(ULS)和疲劳极限状态(FLS)下的结构强度可靠性研究[5],例如针对叶片结构极限强度可靠性[6]、基于断裂力学分析的导管架管节点疲劳可靠性[7]和基于疲劳损伤累积的单桩结构疲劳可靠性评估[1]等。实际上,风机在环境荷载作用下也会因桩基础的歪斜和塔顶位移过大等原因[8-9],导致超出正常使用极限状态(SLS),从而使风机无法正常工作。单桩基础的倾斜程度受环境条件和桩-土作用影响,因此开展单桩风机在SLS下的承载力可靠性分析显得尤为重要。Zhang[10]曾提出SLS下的可靠性分析框架,用于导管架基础设计优化,但目前针对风机单桩基础承载力在SLS下的研究相对匮乏。
根据DNV规范有关SLS要求,环境载荷导致的风机单桩泥面处转角不能超过0.25°[8]。由于计算单桩泥面处转角必须考虑桩-土相互作用,通常需要构建高度非线性的状态方程或隐式有限元模型[11]。为简化问题,提高计算效率,API和DNV规范推荐的p-y曲线被广泛使用。但对于海上风机单桩,埋入深度与桩径的比值通常在4~8之间,很多研究表明,风机大直径单桩采用p-y曲线并不合适[12-14]。而桩-土耦合的有限元方法是基于实际的地质条件和桩-土界面参数,原理明确,结果可靠,已被广泛用于模拟复杂的三维桩-土相互作用问题[1315]。单桩风机在SLS下的承载力可靠性受复杂的环境参数变量影响,无法给出显式功能函数,因此可采用蒙特卡罗方法进行失效概率的求解,然而完全依靠桩-土耦合的有限元计算方法,计算成本太高,故需要对可靠性分析方法进行改进。
针对以上问题,本文以LEANWIND项目所提出的LW 8MW风机[16]为例,采用BP神经网络与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合的方法,基于山东渤中风电场某点位地质条件,考虑风浪环境参数的相关性,对海上大直径单桩风机在SLS下的承载力可靠性开展研究。
本文采用BP神经网络与蒙特卡罗相结合的方法进行可靠性分析,其中神经网络训练点值通过基于桩-土接触面的有限元模型进行计算,考虑风速、波高和周期等环境要素的相关性[17],研究流程如图1所示。具体步骤包括:(1)本文涉及的环境参数变量如风速、波高和周期具有相关性,因此需要首先构建联合概率分布模型,并基于联合概率分布模型进行抽样;(2)基于桩-土接触构建有限元模型,计算训练点处的响应值,训练神经网络;(3)确定隐性功能函数,进行蒙特卡罗抽样,按下式计算失效概率[18]
式中,Pf为失效概率,nf为失效数量,n为抽样数量。
BP神经网络(Back Propagation)[19]是一种多层前馈网络,通过不断调整网络的权值和阈值,完成对神经网络的训练,可用于数据预测,模拟从输入到输出任意复杂的非线性映射。
单隐藏层BP神经网络结构如图2所示。输入层和输出层的神经元个数由学习样本的输入参数、输出参数数量决定。对于单隐含层的神经元个数,可以根据下式[20]确定:
式中,h为隐藏层神经元个数,ni为输入层神经元个数,no为输出层神经元个数,a随机取0~10之间的常数。确定隐藏层神经元数量后,神经网络的拓扑结构即搭建完毕。
本文采用Sigmoid函数作为激活函数,并使用Levenberg-Marquardt算法进行反向传播过程的误差修正,以得到最佳的权值和阈值。训练完成后的单隐藏层的神经网络模型[21]
式中,η(·)为激活函数,wknwik为权值,bnkbki为阈值,Oi为输出层的最后输出值。
Pearson-III型分布是广义的Gamma分布,在水文领域有着广泛的应用[22],其分布函数曲线为
式中,a0为位置参数,a为形状参数,b为尺度参数。
本文采用Pearson-III型分布拟合20年风速、波高和周期极值序列,通过经验适线法求解Pearson-III型分布的参数,其结果见表1。通过K-S检验对拟合分布进行检验,由表1可知,最大风速、有效波高和周期的Pearson-III型分布均能通过假设检验,即检验统计量都小于检验标准(置信水平α取0.05,n=21),这说明Pearson-III型分布能够较好地拟合风速、波高和周期的边缘分布,拟合分布图见图3
Copula函数是描述随机变量间相关性的重要工具[23],该函数是定义在[0,1]区间上均匀分布的联合概率分布函数。假设H为一个d维联合分布函数,其边缘分布为F1F2,⋯,Fd,则存在一个d维Copula函数C,使得对任意xRd[23-24]
式中,Fixi)=uii=1,2,⋯,d。如果F1F2,⋯,Fd是连续的,则C是唯一的,否则C是由RanF1×RanF2×⋯×RanFd唯一确定;相反,如果C是一个d维Copula,F1F2,⋯,Fd为一元分布函数,那么式(5)定义的函数F是一个d元分布函数,其边缘分布为F1F2,⋯,Fd
本文采用常见的4种三维Archimedean Copulas函数Clayton Copula、Frank Copula、Gumbel-Hougaard Copula和AMH Copula进行联合分布模型的构建,通过RMSE和AIC法对Copula模型进行拟合优度评价,模型择优结果见表2。RMSE值和AIC值越小,说明该Copula函数对样本数据的拟合程度越高。由表2可知,基于Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数建立的风速、波高和周期的三维联合分布模型的RMSE值和AIC值最小,说明Gumbel-Hougaard Copula是拟合较优的三维联合分布函数,拟合结果如图4所示。
对于对称Archimedean Copula函数,本文采用Marshal-Olkin法进行相关环境参数的随机抽样,具体步骤包括:(1)产生独立同分布且服从均匀分布随机数v1v2v3;(2)产生服从分布函数G的随机数Y,使G的拉普拉斯变换为相应Archimedean Copula生成的逆函数φ-1;(3)定义si = -lnvi/Yi = 1,2,3;(4)Archimedean Copula随机数为ui = φ-1si),i = 1,2,3,式中ui为本文中风速、波高和周期的边缘分布。
《山东海上风电发展规划(2021—2030年)》聚焦渤中、半岛北、半岛南三大片区,打造千万千瓦级海上风电基地[25],目前山东海上大直径单桩风机单台功率范围在5~10MW之间[26]。本章以LW 8MW风机为例,针对渤中海域地质和海洋环境条件,采用BP神经网络与MCS相结合的方法进行可靠性分析,以验证本文所建立的可靠性分析方法的适用性。
(1)风机参数
LW 8MW[16]风机的详细参数如表3所示。该风机通过直径D=7.7 m、壁厚t=0.08 m的单桩固定于平均水深20 m的渤中海域,入泥深度L=35 m。
(2)土体模型
海床自上而下可简化为3土层的地质条件,依次为粘土层、砂土层和粘土层,采用Mohr-Coulomb本构模型,相关力学参数参考地勘报告和参考文献[27-28],如表4所示。风机结构与土层分布情况如图5所示。
(3)网格与接触设置
为避免边界效应的影响,土体水平和深度方向分别取20DL+2.5D。土体的底面自由度完全约束,侧壁释放竖向位移。考虑到结构-土体相互作用的SSI模型[29],桩-土接触面设置为硬接触,允许分离与滑移,切向摩擦系数取0.45。土体采用8节点减缩积分实体单元(C3D8R)离散,桩采用4节点减缩积分壳单元(S4R)。在土体与桩的接触面5D范围内适当细化,以提高计算精度。有限元模型及网格划分情况如图6所示。
首先对本研究涉及的砂土和粘土两种土质条件下的桩-土耦合模型进行准确性验证。关于砂土的SSI模型验证结果可参照已发表的论文[29]。针对粘土中的SSI模型,通过与Lai[30]的计算结果进行对比验证。验证模型中,桩径和壁厚分别为8 m、0.09 m,埋深40 m。粘土重度γ=6 kN/m3,不排水抗剪强度su = 5 + 1.5z,其中z为泥面下深度,杨氏模量E=500su,泊松比ν=0.48[28]。在泥面上30 m处施加水平荷载,得到的水平荷载与桩的泥面水平位移(泥面处水平位移与桩径比值y/D)的关系曲线如图7所示。
Lai[30]基于MR-θR弹簧的模型仅考虑了旋转点以下的桩-土作用,忽略了旋转点以上部分的桩-土作用,因此土体抗力结果比本文小。Lai的有限元模型与本文结果在y/D<0.03范围非常接近,在y/D>0.03时差距较大,这是因为Lai模型中采用NGI-ADP本构模型,定义了土体塑性变形后的强度弱化,而本文Mohr-Coulomb模型在屈服后强度保持不变。由于本研究仅涉及小变形阶段,故本文的SSI模型是适用的。
风对结构的作用主要表现为作用于风机扇叶的推力和塔筒上的风荷载。由于风机在切出风速前后运动特性的差异,扇叶推力的计算需要根据轮毂处风速是否超过切出风速分别计算。
(1)当轮毂处的风速在切入风速与切出风速之间时,推力可通过下式[31]计算:
式中,Fth为推力;ρa=1.025 kg/m3为空气密度;AR为扇叶扫掠面积;Whub为轮毂处的平均风速;CT为推力系数,其取值按下式[32]得出:
(2)若轮毂处风速大于切出风速,推力按下式[27]计算:
式中,Cs为扇叶的阻力系数,取1.5[33]AB为扇叶总投影面积,其他参数同式(10)。
塔筒所受风载荷根据式(11)计算,阻力系数取Cs = 0.5,投影面积AB为塔筒沿流速方向的投影,高度z处风速W取值采用指数分布律,表达式[8]如下:
式中,W10为海平面以上10 m高度处的平均风速,β = 0.2为风速廓线指数。
风机单桩所受波浪力利用莫里森方程计算,波浪力[8]可以表示为
式中,FM为惯性力,FD为拖曳力,dw为水深,CM = 2.0为惯性力系数,CD=1.2为拖曳力系数,ρw=1025 kg/m3为海水密度,D为桩径,分别代表水质点的速度和加速度。
根据随机抽取的年极值数据范围,确定神经网络方法中轮毂处风速、波高、波周期三个参数的训练点,如表5所示。需要指出的是,由于25 m/s是风荷载计算的临界风速,因此在风速25 m/s近区增设两个训练点位置24.9 m/s和25.1 m/s。
将以上数据完全组合得到260个训练点,通过有限元计算得到单桩泥面处转角θ。波浪不变(H=7 m、T=9 s),不同风速W条件下土体位移云图如图8所示,泥面转角θ与风速的关系见表6;波高H改变对土体位移的影响如图9所示。可以看出,土体位移受到风速变化的影响较大。单桩绕中心轴附近某点转动,符合实际情况[34]
将260组环境参数作为输入值,泥面转角θ作为输出值,取5个中间层神经元,通过神经网络训练,训练完成后输入的泥面转角值xtarget与神经网络预测值youtput相关曲线如图10所示。结果表明,有限元计算结果与神经网络的预测结果相关系数R=0.998 17,呈现出高度相关性,证明了神经网络预测结果的可靠性。
将随机抽取的20万组环境数据代入到构建的BP神经网络模型,可得到对应环境条件下泥面转角的值,泥面转角的分布情况如表7所示。泥面转角超过0.25°的概率为0.099%,可靠性指标为3.09,考虑风机设计使用寿命为25年,则单桩失效概率为2.446%,可靠性指标为1.97。需要指出的是,在DNV规范中要求的泥面转角为永久累积转角,而本文只考虑了极端海况导致的转角,根据Ma等人[27]的研究结果,单桩的永久累积转角主要由台风等极端情况下的环境荷载所导致,而正常海况对转角的贡献较少,所以本文计算得到的失效概率虽略低于实际情况,但仍具有一定的参考价值。
采用斯皮尔曼等级相关系数(SRC)讨论分析单桩失效的主要影响因素[10],两个变量之间的SRC绝对值越大,它们之间的相关性越强,本文求得环境参数与泥面转角之间的SRC值如表8所示。由于风机为高耸结构物,风荷载作用位置高,对泥面处弯矩贡献大,因此泥面转角与风速呈强相关性,即单桩泥面转角对风荷载变化比较敏感,而泥面转角与波高、周期的相关性相对较弱。
本文研究了大直径单桩风机在正常使用极限状态下的承载力可靠性,考虑实际多土层的地质条件以及风、浪环境参数相关性,采用BP神经网络与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合的方法,对LW 8MW风机的单桩可靠性进行了分析,得出以下结论:
(1)蒙特卡罗模拟因其简单高效得到广泛应用,结合BP神经网络能精确地描述环境荷载与结构响应之间的非线性关系,可以在保证可靠性分析精度的同时大大提高分析效率。
(2)考虑环境参数与真实土层对结构响应的影响,采用环境参数联合概率分布模型和基于桩-土相互作用的有限元模型来综合确定结构响应,具有较强的现实意义,可以为国内后续海上风电场的设计建设提供参考。
  • 江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20190970; BK20190974)
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doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-7294.2024.08.012
  • 接收时间:2024-02-19
  • 首发时间:2026-03-26
  • 出版时间:2024-08-20
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  • 收稿日期:2024-02-19
基金
江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20190970; BK20190974)
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    江苏科技大学,江苏 镇江 212100

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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