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Article(id=1322941481924821122, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, issueId=1322941226537857309, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2025.0695, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1759075200000, receivedDateStr=2025-09-29, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=1760630400000, acceptedDateStr=2025-10-17, onlineDate=1793343428355, onlineDateStr=2026-10-30, pubDate=1793376000000, pubDateStr=2026-10-31, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793343428355, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793343428355, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793343428355, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322941226537857309, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, year='2026', volume='52', issue='10', pageStart='3237', pageEnd='3676', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1793376000000', pubDateStr='2026-10-31', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793343367466, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793344760378, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1322947068926505286, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, issueId=1322941226537857309, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1322947068926505287, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, issueId=1322941226537857309, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=3658, endPage=3666, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322941482377805955, articleId=1322941481924821122, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, language=EN, title=A study on emission characteristics of rocket launches (2020—2024), columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

The rapid development of spaceflight has significantly advanced science and technology, but it also poses non-negligible environmental challenges. This study focuses on major emissions from rocket launches, including CO2, black carbon (BC), H2O, Al2O3, and chlorine species (Cly). To assess the atmospheric influence of space activities, their horizontal and vertical spatial distributions are examined using worldwide launch data from 2020 to 2024. The results indicate that gaseous emissions are dominated by CO2 and H2O, with total quantities of approximately 2.71×108 kg and 1.44×108 kg, respectively. In contrast, particulate emissions consist mainly of BC and Al2O3, with estimated releases of 6.70×106 kg and 7.80×106 kg, respectively. Horizontally, the emissions exhibit strong regional concentration, with the United States and China accounting for the majority of CO2, H2O, and BC emissions. Al2O3 and Cly emissions are mainly concentrated in China, France, the United States, and India. Vertically, CO2 emissions are concentrated in the troposphere, while BC emissions peak in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Due to the persistence of BC in the upper atmosphere, a near twofold increase in net radiative forcing can be observed in these regions. This suggests that because of their high-altitude BC emissions, space launch operations are more dangerous to the climate than aircraft and conventional industrial sources that are limited to the troposphere.

, authors=Jia SONG, Yu YANG, Wang HAN*, Lijun YANG, authorsList=Jia SONG, Yu YANG, Wang HAN, Lijun YANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Wang HAN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
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, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2026 Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322941489617174685, articleId=1322941481924821122, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, language=CN, title=2020—2024年火箭发射排放特性研究, columnId=null, journalTitle=北京航空航天大学学报, columnName=, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

航天事业的快速发展在推动科技进步的同时，也带来了不容忽视的环境影响。为评估全球航天活动对大气环境的影响，基于2020—2024年的全球火箭发射数据，对不同类型火箭产生的CO2、黑碳(BC)、H2O、Al2O3和含氯化合物(Cly)等产物在水平和垂直空间的排放分布特性进行了研究和分析。结果表明：2020—2024年期间，全球火箭发射排放的气相排放物以CO2和H2O为主，两者排放量分别高达2.71×108 kg和1.44×108 kg，固相排放物主要包括BC和Al2O3，排放量分别为6.70×106 kg和7.80×106 kg；在水平空间上，火箭排放物呈现出显著的地域集中性，美国和中国主导贡献了全球BC、CO2和H2O的排放，Al2O3和Cly的排放则主要集中于中国、法国、美国和印度等国家；在大气层的垂直空间上，CO2的排放集中于对流层，BC排放核心区位于平流层和中间层，受限于高海拔大气层的垂直对流强度低，BC易出现积聚效应，导致平流层及以上大气层的综合辐射强迫提升近1倍，表明相比处于对流层的航空运输业及传统工业，航天发射活动排放的BC对环境气候的危害更为严重。

, authors=宋佳, 杨宇, 韩旺*, 杨立军, authorsList=宋佳, 杨宇, 韩旺, 杨立军, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=韩旺, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
E-mail：
, copyrightStatement=版权所有 © 2026 北京航空航天大学学报(自然科学版)编辑部, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=tTh1arluDlYrg7ybawNDcQ==, magXml=1qXcb5CfT2ucQIl6l7P25A==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=Rvsu5boG4lm4orJJfr/LxA==, pdfFileSize=3911844, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=ElaPjAo+ecN7d+2iKYle3Q==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=X6matL9/vXBJZGgORf2jNQ==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1322941490003050658, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, articleId=1322941481924821122, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1322941490107908260, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, 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figureFileSmall=Th04VJkdmrLneq4IK+T8ww==, figureFileBig=CdQJD8ZtLVl9ACfbYmsY0Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322941496692965594, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, articleId=1322941481924821122, language=CN, label=图12, caption=考虑和不考虑积聚效应时BC综合辐射强迫的垂直剖面, figureFileSmall=Th04VJkdmrLneq4IK+T8ww==, figureFileBig=CdQJD8ZtLVl9ACfbYmsY0Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322941496802017499, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, articleId=1322941481924821122, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=Rocket types with incomplete data and associated reference models, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
缺失型号替代/参考型号依据
火箭3号 (Astra Roket 3)电子号 (Elecrton)推进剂类型
千里马1号 (Chollima 1)长征2号丙推进剂类型
韩国固体燃料运载火箭
(GYUB-TV2)		米诺陶1号
(Minotaur 1)		推进剂类型、级数
凯洛斯(Kairos)快舟1号推进剂类型、级数
谷神星1号沙维特 (Shavit)推进剂类型、级数
捷龙3号艾普斯龙CLPS
(Epsilon 2 CLPS)		运载能力、级数
快舟11号长征6号/快舟1号起飞规模、运载能力、
推进剂类型
长征11号米诺陶1号
(Minotaur 1)		推进剂类型、级数
长征12号长征7号甲运载能力、
推进剂类型
长征6号甲长征7号甲起飞规模
朱雀2号安塔瑞斯230
(Antares 230)		起飞规模
朱雀2号改安塔瑞斯230
(Antares 230)		起飞规模
), ArticleFig(id=1322941498496516316, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, articleId=1322941481924821122, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

数据缺失的火箭型号及其参考型号

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
缺失型号替代/参考型号依据
火箭3号 (Astra Roket 3)电子号 (Elecrton)推进剂类型
千里马1号 (Chollima 1)长征2号丙推进剂类型
韩国固体燃料运载火箭
(GYUB-TV2)		米诺陶1号
(Minotaur 1)		推进剂类型、级数
凯洛斯(Kairos)快舟1号推进剂类型、级数
谷神星1号沙维特 (Shavit)推进剂类型、级数
捷龙3号艾普斯龙CLPS
(Epsilon 2 CLPS)		运载能力、级数
快舟11号长征6号/快舟1号起飞规模、运载能力、
推进剂类型
长征11号米诺陶1号
(Minotaur 1)		推进剂类型、级数
长征12号长征7号甲运载能力、
推进剂类型
长征6号甲长征7号甲起飞规模
朱雀2号安塔瑞斯230
(Antares 230)		起飞规模
朱雀2号改安塔瑞斯230
(Antares 230)		起飞规模
), ArticleFig(id=1322941498584596701, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, articleId=1322941481924821122, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=Mass of pollutants emitted per kilogram of emissions burned, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
推进剂排放物质量/kg
CO2BCH2OAl2O3Cly
液氧-煤油0.910.0220.36
自燃推进剂0.460.0160.38
固体推进剂0.440.0160.390.340.217
液氧-甲烷0.550.0050.45
液氧-液氢1.27
), ArticleFig(id=1322941498660094174, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258626896822465, articleId=1322941481924821122, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

每千克推进剂燃烧产生的排放物质量

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
推进剂排放物质量/kg
CO2BCH2OAl2O3Cly
液氧-煤油0.910.0220.36
自燃推进剂0.460.0160.38
固体推进剂0.440.0160.390.340.217
液氧-甲烷0.550.0050.45
液氧-液氢1.27
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2020—2024年火箭发射排放特性研究
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宋佳 , 杨宇 , 韩旺 * , 杨立军
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北京航空航天大学学报 | 2026 , 52 (10) : 3658 -3666
2020—2024年火箭发射排放特性研究
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宋佳, 杨宇, 韩旺* , 杨立军
作者信息
  • 北京航空航天大学 宇航学院，北京 100191
通讯作者:
A study on emission characteristics of rocket launches (2020—2024)
Jia SONG, Yu YANG, Wang HAN* , Lijun YANG
Affiliations
  • School of Astronautics，Beihang University，Beijing 100191，China
    • Corresponding Author:
    E-mail：
出版时间: 2026-10-31 doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2025.0695
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摘要
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航天事业的快速发展在推动科技进步的同时，也带来了不容忽视的环境影响。为评估全球航天活动对大气环境的影响，基于2020—2024年的全球火箭发射数据，对不同类型火箭产生的CO2、黑碳(BC)、H2O、Al2O3和含氯化合物(Cly)等产物在水平和垂直空间的排放分布特性进行了研究和分析。结果表明：2020—2024年期间，全球火箭发射排放的气相排放物以CO2和H2O为主，两者排放量分别高达2.71×108 kg和1.44×108 kg，固相排放物主要包括BC和Al2O3，排放量分别为6.70×106 kg和7.80×106 kg；在水平空间上，火箭排放物呈现出显著的地域集中性，美国和中国主导贡献了全球BC、CO2和H2O的排放，Al2O3和Cly的排放则主要集中于中国、法国、美国和印度等国家；在大气层的垂直空间上，CO2的排放集中于对流层，BC排放核心区位于平流层和中间层，受限于高海拔大气层的垂直对流强度低，BC易出现积聚效应，导致平流层及以上大气层的综合辐射强迫提升近1倍，表明相比处于对流层的航空运输业及传统工业，航天发射活动排放的BC对环境气候的危害更为严重。

二氧化碳  /  黑碳  /  液氧煤油  /  平流层排放  /  温室效应

The rapid development of spaceflight has significantly advanced science and technology, but it also poses non-negligible environmental challenges. This study focuses on major emissions from rocket launches, including CO2, black carbon (BC), H2O, Al2O3, and chlorine species (Cly). To assess the atmospheric influence of space activities, their horizontal and vertical spatial distributions are examined using worldwide launch data from 2020 to 2024. The results indicate that gaseous emissions are dominated by CO2 and H2O, with total quantities of approximately 2.71×108 kg and 1.44×108 kg, respectively. In contrast, particulate emissions consist mainly of BC and Al2O3, with estimated releases of 6.70×106 kg and 7.80×106 kg, respectively. Horizontally, the emissions exhibit strong regional concentration, with the United States and China accounting for the majority of CO2, H2O, and BC emissions. Al2O3 and Cly emissions are mainly concentrated in China, France, the United States, and India. Vertically, CO2 emissions are concentrated in the troposphere, while BC emissions peak in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Due to the persistence of BC in the upper atmosphere, a near twofold increase in net radiative forcing can be observed in these regions. This suggests that because of their high-altitude BC emissions, space launch operations are more dangerous to the climate than aircraft and conventional industrial sources that are limited to the troposphere.

carbon dioxide  /  black carbon  /  kerosene  /  stratospheric emission  /  greenhouse effect
宋佳, 杨宇, 韩旺, 杨立军. 2020—2024年火箭发射排放特性研究. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2026 , 52 (10) : 3658 -3666 . DOI: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2025.0695
Jia SONG, Yu YANG, Wang HAN, Lijun YANG. A study on emission characteristics of rocket launches (2020—2024)[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2026 , 52 (10) : 3658 -3666 . DOI: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2025.0695
正文
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航天事业的发展有助于人类探索宇宙、拓展生存空间，推动了科学技术的进步，也为人类社会带来了深远的影响。航天技术不仅在通信、导航、气象监测等传统领域取得广泛的应用，同时，推动了太空旅游、低轨卫星星座建设和空间资源开发等新兴商业模式的兴起与演进[1-3]。
火箭是有效载荷安全可靠地进入太空的运载工具。随着各国航天活动的加速推进，火箭发射需求剧烈增长。2024年，中国执行了68次航天发射任务，美国火箭发射次数达到154次，创下历史新高。此外，欧洲、印度、俄罗斯等国家和地区的航天机构及私营企业也在加大发射频次。这一趋势表明，全球航天产业正进入高速发展阶段，但随之而来的环境问题也亟待关注。
运载火箭多采用碳氢燃料和固体燃料作为推进剂，燃烧过程中不仅会释放大量CO2、H2O、黑碳（black carbon，BC）等气候强迫因子，同时，还涉及Al2O3和含氯化合物（Cly）等污染物。尤其是当前商业航天正加速向低成本、高运载能力的可复用运载火箭方向发展，其单次发射可消耗数百吨推进剂，以美国的猎鹰9号运载火箭为例，其单次发射可消耗约5.23×105 kg的推进剂，排放出4.77×105 kg CO2和1.15×104 kg BC[4-5]，CO2是导致全球变暖的主要温室气体，而Ross等[6-7]研究表明，BC在平流层的单位质量气候影响效应是CO2的105倍以上，对大气辐射强迫和气候系统的破坏作用更为严重。
与排放到对流层的航空运输业或生产工业不同，火箭尾气排放涉及对流层、平流层、中间层及更高海拔的大气层区域，由于平流层及以上高度区域垂直对流强度弱，会产生积聚效应，据研究估算，平流层排放物的平均清除时间约为3～5年[8]。Kokkinakis等[9]以Falcon 9火箭执行 Thaicom-8任务为原型，通过高精度计算流体动力学模拟研究发现，火箭发射会在高层大气中排放大量CO2和氮氧化物等污染物，在70 km高度，单次排放的CO2质量相当于26 km3当地大气中所含的CO2。除各种会导致温室效应和臭氧消耗的废气外，火箭燃烧和再入过程中产生的BC等固相颗粒可能对气候影响更大[10]。Samset等的研究表明[11]，积聚效应导致大气层顶部BC的直接辐射强迫显著强于平流层，两者相差10倍以上。Ryan等[12]基于2019年的火箭发射排放数据，评估了航天排放对环境气候的影响，结果表明，火箭排放的单位质量BC的气候影响程度远高于航空运输业。Tsigaridis等[13] 通过地球系统模型模拟发现，在年发射1万次的场景下，火箭排放的BC可使平流层负荷增加3倍，导致对流层顶升温超1.5 K，并间接使平流层水汽含量增加约50%，进而对全球气候产生显著影响。
在全球航天活动迅猛增长的背景下，亟需系统性评估火箭发射活动对气候和大气环境的影响。特别地，火箭发射排放不仅具有显著的地区排放分布不均特性，其发射过程连续穿越对流层、平流层、中间层、热层等多种大气层结构，在不同高度上的分布存在巨大差异[10]，这种分布不均对环境的影响特性仍不清晰。因此，本文从已有的航天发射频次数据出发，定量分析了多种火箭发射排放物在水平、垂直空间上的排放特征，进一步确立了垂直空间排放不均对环境的影响规律。本文不仅有助于完善航天活动的环境评估体系，还能为未来绿色推进技术的发展提供数据基础和科学依据。需要指出的是，现有研究表明，排放物对环境的长周期影响需考虑大气流动[14-15]，而本文重点聚焦于火箭发射这一短时过程中的源头排放特性，旨在揭示日益频繁的航天发射活动对环境的直接危害性，因此，未将大气流动的影响纳入考虑。
1 计算模型
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1.1 排放估算模型
火箭发动机燃烧过程中会排放出多种产物，其中，CO2、BC、H2O、Al2O3等具有强烈的红外、可见光辐射吸收能力，增强大气中的辐射强迫，是不可忽视的温室因子[16-17]，而Cly在大气中受热易分解成氯自由基，催化臭氧发生裂解，对臭氧层造成破坏。因此，本文基于2020—2024年间火箭发射频次及其发动机相关型号，计算了CO2、BC、H2O、Al2O3和Cly的排放量，并生成了全球火箭发射的排放物水平和垂直空间排放分布图。火箭发射频次信息及推进剂数据来源于公开网站（DISCOSweb、Gunter’s Space Page、SatWiki等）、学术论文[4, 18-19]和官方文件[20-22]。一些型号的火箭缺少相关文件的支持，本文综合考虑火箭长度、级数、起飞质量、推进剂类型和运载能力，采用型号相近的火箭数据对其估计，如表1所示。在被替代的13个型号中，除谷神星1号、长征11号等少数型号外，其余型号在2020—2024年间发射频次均低于5次，其对总体排放估算的累积影响有限。缺失火箭主要集中于使用液氧煤油和固体推进剂的型号，可能对这2类推进剂的消耗总量估算带来轻微偏差，但替换型号的推进剂消耗量仅占全部型号推进剂总量的2.3%，因此，该替代方法可能造成的误差很小。
排放物的排放因子（每千克推进剂的排放质量）因推进剂类型而异，2020—2024年间，主流推进剂组合包括液氧-煤油、液氧-液氢、固体推进剂（高氯酸铵/铝）、自燃推进剂（肼类/四氧化二氮）和液氧-甲烷，单位推进剂的排放如表2所示[4, 23]。
基于单次火箭发射的推进剂类型和消耗量，可以计算出不同排放物释放量[23]。需特别指出，本文未将发射任务失败、可回收火箭残留燃料等情形所引起的排放量减少纳入考虑。
1.2 排放物垂直空间排放分布计算模型
CO2和BC被视为温室效应贡献最强的2种物质，本文重点针对这2种物质计算垂直空间上的排放特性。火箭的垂直排放取决于各级推进剂类型和质量及各级发动机的点火高度。Ross等[7]在研究中给出了0～100 km内不同高度下火箭推进剂质量消耗百分比。基于该数据和火箭各级点火高度，可以获得不同高度区间的推进剂消耗情况。本文编译的发射事件高度数据涵盖了目标高度范围（0～100 km），包括各型号火箭助推器发动机点火、助推器发动机截止、一级发动机点火、一级发动机截止和二级发动机点火的高度，第二发动机点火以外的指令通常发生在100 km以上。具体计算过程如下：
1） 若事件结束高度大于100 km，即火箭相应级携带的推进剂并未完全在100 km内消耗，假定推进剂消耗量与高度成正比，以此得到本级实际消耗量为
$ {m}_{\text{eff}}=m\frac{100-{h}_{\text{s}}}{{h}_{\text{e}}-{h}_{\text{s}}} $
式中：m为推进剂质量；meff为本级推进剂实际消耗质量；hs为阶段起始高度；he为阶段结束高度。
2） Ross等[7]给出的不同高度下推进剂消耗占比覆盖范围为0～100 km。然而，实际火箭发射的各阶段高度跨度并非0～100 km。因此，需对Ross等给出的占比进行缩放，以得到各发射阶段对应的推进剂消耗占比：
$ {P}_{\text{norm}}(h)={P(h)}\bigg/{\displaystyle\sum \limits_{h={h}_{\text{s}}}^{{h}_{\text{e}}}P(h)} $
式中：P(h)为每单位高度下推进剂消耗量占比；Pnorm(h)为不同火箭发射阶段归一化后的占比。
3） 由高度区间内的推进剂消耗质量和相应的排放因子计算排放量：
$ E(i,h)={P}_{\text{norm}}(h){m}_{\text{eff}}{E}_{\mathrm{I}\text{f}}(i,p) $
式中：E(i,h)为高度h下物质i的排放质量；EIf(i, p)为推进剂p的物质i最终排放因子。
本文将排放的垂直空间限定在0～100 km的范围内（以卡门线为界），垂直空间分辨率为5 km。
对于BC，其排放后温度较高，会和大气中的空气发生氧化反应。由于不同高度下氧含量不同，氧化速率亦不相同，因此，最终BC排放量随海拔变化差异较大。本文采用Wayson等[24]基于Atlas II火箭排放数据构建的指数拟合公式，对不同高度下因氧化速率不同导致的BC排放量差异进行计算：
$ {E}_{\text{If,BC}}={E}_{\text{Ip,BC}}\max \left\{0.04,\min \left[1,0.04{\text{e}}^{\tfrac{0.12}{h-15}}\right]\right\} $
式中：EIp,BC为初等排放因子，使用表2中的取值；EIf,BC为考虑不同海拔下氧化速率后的BC排放垂直分布特性。
2 结果与讨论
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2.1 总体排放情况
图1展示了火箭发射次数随年份的变化关系。可以看到，全球航天发射活动呈现出明显的阶段性特征：1957—1965年间，年发射次数从2次激增至1965年的112次，这一爆发式增长主要源于1957年斯普特尼克1号发射成功后引发的美苏太空竞赛；1970—1990年，进入相对稳定的平台期，年发射量维持在100～130次之间，期间航天发展从军事对抗转向实用化卫星应用，包括通信、气象等民用系统的部署[25]；1990年至21世纪初，发射次数出现了显著下降趋势，2004年降至53次，主要归因于苏联解体后航天预算缩减及美国航天飞机计划的结束[26]；而2013年后，随着商业发射市场逐渐成熟，发射量重现指数级增长趋势，2024年全球火箭发射达254次，较2023年增长约17%，若维持当前增速，预计到2050年年发射量可能突破3000次。可以预见的是，指数型增长的发射频次势必在未来带来更为严峻的环境问题。本文基于Kaya恒等式[27]的火箭BC排放预测模型，假定未来火箭市场以常规增速场景发展（发射次数年增长率为5.6%），预计到2050年，火箭发射产生的BC排放将达到5.7415×107 kg/年，是2024年的26倍。
基于2020—2024年火箭发射频次，结合相关推进剂类型计算了不同物质的排放量，如图2所示。5年内，排放最多的分别为CO2和H2O，分别为2.71×108 kg和1.44×108 kg。以BC和Al2O3为代表的固相污染物排放量低于CO2和H2O排放量2个量级，分别为6.70×106 kg和7.80×106 kg。排放量最低的为Cly污染物，仅为5.10×106 kg。为验证本文采用的排放模型有效性，将2020年计算结果与Ryan等[12]计算的2019年结果进行比较（考虑到2019年与2020年火箭发射次数十分接近，分别为97次和104次）。本文估算的2020年火箭排放量为H2O：1.6×107 kg、BC：6.9×105 kg、Cly：8.2×105 kg、Al2O3：1.2×106 kg，其与Ryan等[12]计算的2019年结果基本吻合，分别为H2O：1.1×107 kg、BC：5.0×105 kg、Cly：9.0×105 kg、Al2O3：1.6×106 kg。
从推进剂种类消耗量来看（如图3所示），5年内火箭发射消耗量最多的燃料为液氧-煤油推进剂，消耗量达到2.2×108 kg，因其具备高推重比、低成本的优势，兼顾可靠性和经济性，仍是当前火箭发射任务的首要选择，从表2可以看出，液氧-煤油的CO2和BC排放因子显著高于其余组合推进剂，因此，液氧-煤油对CO2和BC的排放贡献最高，如图2所示。自燃推进剂消耗量仅次于液氧-煤油推进剂，为4.8×107 kg，其CO2和BC排放因子低于液氧-煤油推进剂，CO2和BC排放贡献也远低于液氧-煤油推进剂，需指出的是，受限于自燃推进剂高毒性特性，许多商业航天已弃用此类推进剂。固体推进剂和液氧/液氢2种燃料的消耗量相当，显著低于传统的液氧-煤油和自燃推进剂，两者消耗量均为1.0×107 kg左右，由于固体推进剂含有铝、氯等元素，是Al2O3和Cly污染物排放的唯一来源；液氧/液氢燃烧产物仅包含H2O，其H2O的排放因子显著高于其余推进剂。液氧-甲烷推进剂主要用在超重-星舰、朱雀2号和火神-半人马等新一代运载火箭，消耗量与固体推进剂相当，为1.24×107 kg，从表2可以看出，该推进剂的BC排放因子显著低于液氧-煤油推进剂，污染低，同时，甲烷不易结焦，复用性能强，与未来商业化重复使用需求高度匹配，是未来航天最具潜力的推进剂。2024年液氧煤油的消耗量达到8.38×107 kg，占推进剂总量的70%；若将其中50%的液氧-煤油任务替换为液氧-甲烷，经计算，BC排放量将由2.17×106 kg降至1.46×106 kg，减少了32.7%。若在2050年，液氧甲烷推进剂的占比达到50%，BC排放量将从5.7415×107 kg降至4.1548×107 kg左右，减少了27.6%。
2.2 水平空间排放分布特性
图4展示了不同物质排放量之和的水平分布特性，同时，给出了各国的不同排放物的占比。各国火箭发射的主要排放物为CO2和H2O，两者合计占各国总排放量的60%～97%，反映了当前火箭推进剂以碳氢燃料和液氧为主的技术特点。中国、美国、俄罗斯等航天大国CO2占比高达54%～70%，显著高于其他排放物。法国的欧洲航天发射场和日本则相反，H2O占比高于CO2，且Cly和Al2O3也具有较高的占比。
图5～图9展示了2020—2024年火箭发射产生的CO2、BC、H2O、Al2O3和Cly排放量的全球水平空间排放分布特性。
从图5可以看出，全球BC排放呈现出明显的水平空间分布不均特征，BC排放主要集中于北半球，其中，美国、中国和俄罗斯为主导排放国家，美国排放量最为显著，达到4.52×106 kg，主要是由液氧-煤油为推进剂的猎鹰9号高频次发射带来的。中国的BC排放量仅次于美国，为1.28×106 kg，约为美国的1/3。除中国、美国和俄罗斯外，印度、伊朗、法国和日本等国家也开展了一定的火箭发射任务，BC排放总量约为9.1×105 kg。
从图6可以看出，CO2与BC在水平空间上的排放分布特性一致，主要集中于美国、中国和俄罗斯3个国家，其中，美国排放量仍位居第一，排放量达1.82×108 kg，表明BC和CO2两者排放量具有一定的关联特性，这主要是因为液氧-煤油是中国、美国和俄罗斯火箭发射的首要推进剂选择，且该推进剂的BC和CO2排放因子均显著高于其余推进剂。
图7展示了H2O的水平空间排放分布特性。可以看出，H2O与CO2及BC的水平空间排放分布一致，集中于美国、中国和俄罗斯3个国家。尽管液氧-液氢推进剂的H2O排放因子为液氧-煤油的3倍，但其在2020—2024年间消耗量不足液氧-煤油的1/10，因此，主导H2O排放的仍为液氧-煤油推进剂。
图8和图9分别展示了Al2O3和Cly的水平空间排放分布，由于Al2O3和Cly这2种污染物均来源于固体推进剂，因此，两者的排放特性呈现出高度的一致性。图8和图9表明，Al2O3和Cly这2种污染物排放呈现出强区域集中性，且主要集中于北半球国家，这与上述CO2、BC及H2O的排放特性相同。然而，Al2O3和Cly排放量较多的国家由美国转变为中国和法国，其在2020—2024年的Al2O3排放量均超过2.0×106 kg，Cly的排放量则超过1.2×106 kg。这一数据反映出当前全球主要航天国家在推进剂选择上的差异：中国在发射任务中呈现液氧-煤油与固体推进剂并重的格局，法国则以固体推进系统为主导，尤其体现在阿丽亚娜系列火箭中，而美国则更倾向于采用液氧-煤油，固体推进剂使用比例明显偏低。对于美国而言，其Al2O3和Cly排放量与印度相当，两者污染物排放量分别约为1.24×106 kg和8.02×105 kg，但与中法两国排放量差距并不显著。在CO2、BC和H2O排放量较为靠前的俄罗斯，由于极少采用固体推进技术，其Al2O3和Cly排放量十分有限。
总体上，在2020—2024年间，各物质的排放量呈现出极强的区域集中性，液氧-煤油推进剂是CO2、BC和H2O等物质的主要来源，排放集中于美国、中国和俄罗斯；而Al2O3和Cly这2种污染物则主要集中于法国、中国、印度和美国。
需指出的是，本文聚焦于航天发射污染物初排阶段的分布特性，并未考虑大气扩散与输送对后续污染物分布特性的影响，因此，对长周期下气候的影响评估存在一定偏差。航天发射污染物排放对平流层增温、大气环流和臭氧变化的长周期影响评估需基于污染物的化学演化机理、气候效应及大气输运模型，进一步结合本文数据进行模拟计算。
2.3 不同级别运载火箭的排放特性
本节以CO2、BC和H2O排放量较高的中国和美国为对象，分析不同近地轨道运载能力的火箭排放特征，确立高排放量的火箭类型，以精准评估航天领域的碳足迹，优化发射任务结构。图10展示了中国和美国的小型（运载能力＜2×103 kg）、中型（运载能力为2×103～1.5×104 kg）、大型（运载能力为1.5×104～5×104 kg）和重型（运载能力＞5×104 kg）火箭CO2、H2O和BC排放的占比。图10表明，中国航天任务以长征系列中型运载火箭为主，其CO2排放量达到3.1×107 kg，占总排放量的73.8%；H2O和BC排放也呈现出类似的分布模式，占比分别为76.4%和78.0%。对于美国而言，大型火箭是CO2、H2O和BC排放的主要来源，其中，CO2和BC占比分别为82.7%和86.4%，而H2O占比略低，为75.3%。大型火箭是中国的CO2、H2O和BC的第二大来源，占比在17%～22%之间。相比之下，美国第二大排放来源为重型火箭。由于小型火箭载荷较小，单位发射成本较高，发射次数不多且单次规模较小，因此，在2020—2024年间，小型火箭的排放量占比低，尤其是转向超重型火箭发展的美国，其小型火箭排放量占比均低于1%。
综上所述，中美两国的排放来源上存在显著差异，中国排放主要源于中型火箭，次要排放源均为大型火箭；而美国的主要排放源为大型火箭，第二大来源为重型火箭。这一差异反映了两国在火箭运载体系发展方向上的分化，美国更倾向于向重型平台演进，而中国目前仍以中大型火箭为主力。
2.4 垂直空间排放分布特性
图11展示了2020—2024年BC和CO2排放量随大气层高度的变化。可见，2020—2024年全球火箭发射所产生的CO2排放量呈现出明显的底层集中型分布，45.9%的CO2排放于对流层区域，随着大气层高度增加，CO2排放量逐步下降，在海拔高于80 km的热层，CO2排放量不及对流层的1/10。在对流层区域，CO2排放量随高度的上升迅速下降，从5 km的4.8×107 kg下降至15 km的1.4×107 kg，降幅达70.8%。在平流层、中间层及热层区域，CO2排放量随高度降幅较为平缓。CO2的底层集中型排放特性主要源于一级发动机作为火箭的主要推进段，燃料消耗量占总量的60%～80%，同时，一级助推阶段主要在对流层完成。
相较于CO2，BC的排放在垂直方向上呈现出显著不同的分布特性。图11表明，随高度变化的BC排放量呈现出近似正态分布，74%的BC排放于平流层和中间层。峰值出现于60 km高度的中间层，这与Barker[4]和Ryan[12]等预测的分布规律一致。在对流层，BC排放量随高度上升而下降，这一趋势与CO2一致。随着高度上升至对流层，BC排放量呈现出显著的上升趋势，当高度从20 km上升至55 km时，BC排放量增加9倍。在中间层和热层区域，BC排放量开始随高度的增加逐步下降。由于高温废气羽流中的后燃，喷嘴出口平面处的BC被部分氧化为CO和CO2。由于氧化需要周围空气中的O2，因此，在较高海拔地区氧化量会减少，BC排放量增加。
平流层及以上高度的大气层由于垂直对流作用减弱，BC易发生积聚效应，对环境更严重的破坏。前人通常采用辐射强迫衡量BC对地球大气环境中输入输出能量平衡的影响程度。为进一步定量评估不同高度下BC对总辐射强迫的相对贡献，本文计算了随高度变化的单位BC质量辐射强迫（normalized direct radiative forcing, NDRF）[11]与各高度区间上BC排放量的乘积，获得了综合辐射强迫，更直观地反映BC辐射效应的高度相关性，图12绘制了未考虑积聚效应的综合辐射强迫估算结果（NDRF数值参考2.5 km海拔的数据，约为2000 W/g）。可以看出，在对流层内，是否考虑积聚效应对综合辐射强迫影响较小，主要原因在于该区域BC排放量较低，且NDRF在该区域处于上升趋势，整体处于较低水平。当海拔来到平流层和中间层后，NDRF数值升高至3750 W/g，较2.5 km提升近1倍，使该区域的综合辐射强迫提升98.9%。在海拔更高的热层区域，NDRF几乎稳定在4000 W/g左右，积聚效应带来的辐射强迫增幅进一步上升至101.0%。综上，在对流层，火箭排放的BC引发的积聚效应对环境影响较为有限，主要受限于BC排放量较低；而在海拔更高的平流层、中间层及热层，BC的积聚效应显著增强其气候影响，导致综合辐射强迫提升近1倍。因此，相比处于对流层的航空运输业及传统工业，航天发射活动排放的单位质量BC对气候环境的危害可能更为严重，火箭发动机在专注燃烧性能的同时，也不可忽视BC的生成与控制。为有效降低火箭发动机的碳烟排放，最根本的技术路径在于从源头抑制其生成，可从燃料组分、喷注雾化、燃烧组织和结构设计等多个维度协同优化，如控制关键燃烧区域的混合比[28]、在可行范围内适度降低燃烧室压、优化喷注器构型以提升掺混均匀性，从而消除局部富燃区[29]，减少因不完全燃烧产生的BC排放。
3 结　论
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本文从已有的航天发射频次数据出发，计算了2020—2024年全球火箭发射产生的CO2、H2O、BC、Al2O3及Cly等多种物质排放量，评估了不同燃料、火箭运载量对不同排放物的贡献，进一步分析了航天发射活动产生的排放物在水平、垂直空间上的排放分布特性，以此确立了BC的积聚效应对环境影响程度。研究主要结论如下：
1） 从排放物类型分析，CO2和H2O是火箭发射排放的主要气相产物，排放量分别为2.71×108 kg和1.44×108 kg，以BC和Al2O3为代表性的固相污染物的排放量低于CO2和H2O排放量2个量级，分别为6.70×106 kg和7.80×106 kg，液氧-煤油是CO2、H2O、BC主要来源，固体推进剂则是Al2O3唯一来源。因此，应大力推行液氧-甲烷替代传统液氧–煤油推进剂，从源头上降低BC排放。
2） 在水平空间上，火箭发射排放呈现出显著的地域集中性，美国和中国贡献了全球大部分的BC、CO2和H2O排放，这与两国大量采用液氧-煤油推进剂开展发射活动相关。相比之下，Al2O3和Cly则主要集中于中国、法国、美国和印度等国家。对于中美两国，除应减少液氧-煤油推进剂的使用外，亟需开发传统固体推进剂的绿色替代燃料。
3） 从火箭运载能力分析，中国的排放主要源于中型火箭，其CO2、H2O和BC的次要排放源为大型火箭；而美国主要源于大型火箭，次要排放源为重型火箭，表明美国更倾向于向超重型平台发展，而中国目前仍以中大型火箭为主力。
4） 在垂直空间上，CO2的排放集中于对流层，其排放强度随高度迅速降低，而BC排放核心区位于平流层中上部和中间层中下部。由于这些高海拔大气层的垂直对流强度低，BC易出现积聚效应，导致高海拔区域的综合辐射强迫提升近1倍。鉴于此，应优先建立针对平流层排放的长期监测与评估体系，并将高空积聚效应纳入航天活动的环境影响评价中。同时，优先在高海拔区域采用低BC排放的燃料替代传统液氧-煤油推进剂。

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doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2025.0695
  • 接收时间：2025-09-29
  • 首发时间：2026-10-30
  • 出版时间：2026-10-31
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  • 收稿日期：2025-09-29
  • 录用日期：2025-10-17
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    北京航空航天大学 宇航学院，北京 100191

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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