Article(id=1284878767331971893, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1283840460791746584, issueId=1284096873799594072, articleNumber=PA20260711_N8TNeSwU, orderNo=null, doi=10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2025.1193, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=null, receivedDateStr=null, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1784268570025, onlineDateStr=2026-07-17, pubDate=1782316800000, pubDateStr=2026-06-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1784268570024, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-17, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1784268570024, creator=admin, updateTime=1784268570024, updator=admin, issue=Issue{id=1284096873799594072, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1283840460791746584, year='2026', volume='26', 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articleAbstract=石油化工储罐区除了有存储危化品的固定式储罐之外，还有在罐区道路上运输危化品的移动槽罐车，而槽罐车的介入可能会改变罐区内多米诺效应事故的扩展路径，导致事故后果升级，因此考虑移动槽罐车的影响对储罐区的风险分析具有重要意义。利用动态贝叶斯网络对石油化工储罐区内多米诺效应事故的动态演变过程进行建模分析，通过在网络中添加移动节点引入移动槽罐车对多米诺效应事故的影响，通过情景推演辨识罐区内多米诺效应事故的扩展路径，根据燃料燃尽时间和设备失效时间划分事故演变过程的时间节点，运用Probit函数模型和贝叶斯理论计算多米诺效应事故在各级设备单元的扩展概率，提出了石油化工储罐区内有移动槽罐车时多米诺效应事故的动态分析方法，为石油化工储罐区内多米诺效应事故的分析与预防提供方法支撑。通过对实际罐区进行案例分析展示了所提出方法的效果和优势，结果表明：当罐区内的多个固定储罐同时发生火灾事故时，事故可能会扩展到道路上或装卸区域内的槽罐车；当槽罐车作为初始事故单元时，在所研究案例的前提条件下并不会引发多米诺事故，这主要是因为槽罐车与固定储罐之间的距离足够远，遏制了事故传播。, authors=null, authorsList=null, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, 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