安全与环境学报

暴雨灾害下长输管道风险因子的双阶皮尔逊筛选方法

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黄星 ¹ , 周鸿娇 ²

安全与环境学报 | 公共安全 2026,26(6):

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安全与环境学报 |公共安全 2026 , 26 (6) :

暴雨灾害下长输管道风险因子的双阶皮尔逊筛选方法

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黄星¹, 周鸿娇²

作者信息

^1.西南石油大学经济管理学院

^2.西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院

Affiliations

出版时间: 2026-06-25 doi: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2025.1057

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摘要

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暴雨天气下构建科学有效的长输管道受灾风险因子体系，对风险诊断与预测具有重要意义。针对相关研究的不足，设计了双阶皮尔逊关联的风险因子筛选方法。在初选阶段，采用皮尔逊相关矩阵和变异系数双重准则，降低候选风险因子间信息冗余，形成初选风险因子体系；在终选阶段，设计信息冗余贡献度算法，循环计算初选风险因子的信息冗余贡献度指数，筛选对整体相关性贡献较小的风险因子，构建终选风险因子体系。为验证方法的有效性，选取K-中心和K-均值聚类算法对比。结果表明：所提方法的风险因子信息解释强度为1.033,累计信息贡献率达89.9%,显著高于K-中心聚类算法(1.007,51.2%)和K-均值聚类算法(1.057,53.7%)。该方法可为暴雨天气下长输管道风险预测与预警提供有力支持。

关键词

安全系统学 / 暴雨灾害 / 长输管道 / 风险因子筛选 / 双阶皮尔逊关联法

引用本文

黄星, 周鸿娇. 暴雨灾害下长输管道风险因子的双阶皮尔逊筛选方法. 安全与环境学报, 2026 , 26 (6) . DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2025.1057

基金

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教育部人文社科研究基金规划项目
四川省哲学社会科学规划重点项目

参考文献

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2026年第26卷第6期

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doi: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2025.1057

首发时间：2026-07-17
出版时间：2026-06-25

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基金

教育部人文社科研究基金规划项目

四川省哲学社会科学规划重点项目

作者信息

^1.西南石油大学经济管理学院

^2.西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

科 Family	属数 Number of genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)	属 Genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae	2	11	5.26	鹅膏菌属 Amanita	10	4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae	2	12	5.74	丝盖伞属 Inocybe	5	2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae	8	14	6.70	蜡蘑属 Laccaria	5	2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae	3	23	11.00	小皮伞属 Marasmius	6	2.87
				小菇属 Mycena	11	5.26
				光柄菇属 Pluteus	5	2.39
				红菇属 Russula	17	8.13
				栓菌属 Trametes	5	2.39

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